summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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The key target is 15.6C for the top 10.
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Some storms forming around Stoke On Trent that could get close.
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Looks like the main line has passed north and east now. Our hopes rest with the stuff over north Wales.
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I’ll be a bit miffed if this is the area that’s supposed to produce, all the energy is south east.
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Sun is now coming out which should allow the heating to begin and give us the thumbs up.
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6 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
I did read though that for the C.E.T. I think the first half of December was amongst the top 20 coldest. I saw lying snow for a week which is something I probably have to go back to 2013 to say. It absolutely boosted my confidence in cold spells in winter, even cold winters themselves, especially after non-stop blowtorch warmth throughout 2022.
First half was 12th coldest on record.
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16 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:
Can see the constant lightening from NE Leeds. Low rumbling too. Looks like we'll miss the action for the rest of the evening. Reasonable looking chances tomorrow though!
Don't be too sure, storm has formed near Glossop and if we finger line the path then it should get somewhere near.
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Wow, can see the lightening from the storm to the south.
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Yeah, looks less likely here now than earlier sadly so we need a trigger it seems.
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4 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:
Plenty signs of instability now
Much better towering than I.
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May come to nothing but for those starved of anything, we have got this far in West Yorkshire.
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Looks like we are done here.
Nick gives us a 40% chance of a storm today, we have cloud dark (though still flat), at least one model suggesting somewhere in Yorkshire is gold tonight and while humid and hot, the breeze has already killed off the kind of heat we were forced to ensure yesterday.
We are on the road, the only question is how quickly we end there.
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I think people need to bear in mind recency bias when being downbeat. One only has go back to 2009 to see great minds like Stratos Ferric declaring that 08/09 was the floor in our new post 91 age.
I see similar despondency today when the truth is that that winter 2010 and Dec 10 are only a decade or so old before we consider the likes of 2013, 2018 and Dec 22.
The second half of Feb 18 was probably the coldest since 2010. The first half of Feb 21 was the coldest since 2012. The first half of Dec 22 was the 12th coldest on record and coldest since 2010. So even in the last decade alone we have put in respectable results that would produce a winter to rival the likes of 08/09 (don't think the second half of Dec or the Jan halves have been that notable) at least.
Do I think this winter can rival 2010 and be the coldest for decades, no. Do I think this winter can produce a Dec 10/March 13, probably not. Do I think it can produce a first half of Dec 22, second half of Jan 13, first half of Feb 12, second half of Feb 18. Yeah, I don't see why not.
Note that this is not a forecast. I don't have Crewe's faith in long range modelling and I'm not entirely sold on the ENSO and solar despite some of the statistics. With that being said, I do think that we have the best chance in some time to achieve two simple goals with perhaps a 2 week standout period that averages close to zero.
Goal 1 - Get a month 2C below the 1991-2020 average and thus beat Dec 22, Jan 21, Feb 18.
Goal 2 - Coldest Jan-March since 2013.
I do think Jan-March will be -AO (-PDO, -QBO) and that the stratosphere will be neutered (+ENSO, -QBO). Four of my 5 primary analogues produce a SSW between Jan 2nd and Feb 9th.
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Looks to me like the Euro would however produce significant rainfall.
At any rate, Autumn should arrive.
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Should be through the worst now here.
Tomorrow sees the wind back westerly and breeze increase before dropping back through Saturday but by then it's ready to go bang.
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10 minutes ago, Frigid said:
You can even go as far back as 1795. Had a CET of 16.0 and the following winter was one of the mildest on record.
The winter of 1730 followed a September CET of 16.6C and was average to cool from Dec-March.
The winter of 1781 follwed a September CET of 15.6C and had a cold December-Jan, cool Feb-March.
March 1796 follwed a September CET of 16.0C and had a very warm Dec-Jan, yes.. but a stonker of a March.
That is just top 10, if we went further into the 15C+ years i'm sure the signal would be varied as well.
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19 minutes ago, Don said:
It’s not a BS theory at all! There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!
Until we get a cold winter following a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!
Statistically speaking it's a recent thing. Across the whole record there's no link but it is more common in recent decades. I tend to believe that this is anomolous though.
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30 minutes ago, cheese said:
June 2023, July 2018 and August 2022 would be the perfect summer.
June and July were too humid in their respective second halves. I'd actually prefer June 18 and July 13. Or actually, just replace both with 2006 and keep the August (or swap for 1995).
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4 minutes ago, cheese said:
Shame that we're still dealing with North Sea murk in September, the time of year I'd least expect it.
In fairness, we are seeing easterlies of almost no strength with a fairly long night now. I think it's just that we don't normally get stagnant easterlies this time of year.
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20 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
I think we can get to 21C for next Monday's value, let's see.
From a pure GFS6z point of view, the last 20C CET day is probably Sunday. At my location the maximum on Monday is 19C and we are only a little north of Sheffield (CET station).
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1 hour ago, baddie said:
Using months from 2018 - now. what would be your bogeyman year, this is mine
January 2021
February 2022
March 2023
April 2018
May 2021
June 2019
July 2023
August 2021
September 2022
Ocotber 2020
November 2019
December 2021
Bogeyman as in bad I assume.
Jan 20
Feb 19
Mar 22
Apr 23
May 19
Jun 19
Jul 21
Aug 20
Sep 21
Oct 22
Nov 22
Dec 18
I don't actually have a strong dislike for any March-Oct so bar June and August it was more about the most forgettable.
Likewise the best post 18 list would be.
Jan 21
Feb 18
March 18
April 21
May 18
June 18 (mainly because it was more settled throughout, the last third of June 23 was a humid fest).
July 20 (though July 18 was close, it just became too humid in the second half), I basically want Autumn or dry heat.
August 22 (narrowly beat out 21 but humidity was surprisingly low)
September 18
October 19
November 19
December 22 (is that really a contest)
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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:
Do you think it's plausible?
It's not unknown for settled spells to just keep on getting prolonged but I personally don't consider the background pattern to warrant it. So I'll back the breakdown allowing for a day or two.
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UKMO and GEM breaks down on Mon.
GFS is an anomaly in that the low that succeeds on the other models is killed on arrival so the breakdown only shifts the warmest uppers. The high then rebuilds.
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A bit more humid than other cool summers before late July so not the most pleasant and nights have felt warm but not too bad. I tend to prefer my heat early and autumn late.
September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'd normally say that there is nothing in the outlook suggesting a record threat but the first third has given us such a window that we might take the record even with mediocrity here on in.