summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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A horrific spell upcoming, especially from Wednesday when we slowly lose pressure without wind and increase humidity.
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2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
A relatively modest bar to exceed from September 2022 so I wouldn't be too surprised to see this value rise again next month
Too early to say, September is the first month you can collapse in the second half.
Looking ahead though, November and December probably cancel each other out so our value for the year is likely to be similar to our value at the end of October. September will be hard to hold down but October was about 2C above average.
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5 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Great post as always @summer blizzardand I buy what you say as well. Seems to me that some sort of wave is developing somewhere hence why we have the atmospheric conditions we have.
We have a +AAM background which would encourage some retraction however there's not really much tropical support beyond that until we get towards late September.
This spell is almost entirely driven therefore by Hurricane Franklin recurving in the right place/time and should hopefully weed itself out of the system in a week or so.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4915598 -
5 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Great post as always @summer blizzardand I buy what you say as well. Seems to me that some sort of wave is developing somewhere hence why we have the atmospheric conditions we have.
We have a +AAM background which would encourage some retraction however there's not really much tropical support beyond that until we get towards late September.
This spell is almost entirely driven therefore by Hurricane Franklin recurving in the right place/time and should hopefully weed itself out of the system in a week or so.
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Certainly a stark heatwave likely for many now (sadly for those of us who warm to a chill) with pressure strong and uppers building Sun-Tues. The greater question mark (and potentially for bone crushing humidity) is from Weds-Sun when the breakdown is only trying to occur very slowly.
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23 hours ago, reef said:
That 16.5C summer CET means that since 1976 the only warmer summers are:
1983, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022
It was 1.2C warmer than 2012 and 1.2C cooler than the warmest.
I think that some people struggle with this summer because June was well before the thermal maximum so they felt hot but not July 06/18 hot even though the anomoly is comparable to those months.
It's probably easier for people to compare this summer to 1983 and 1997 and switch June with July. In that regard we get a 14.1C June, 19C July, 16.4C August. That would have felt more reflective.
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I seem to remember that the remains of Ex Hurricane Ophelia in 2005 brought a frost in September 2005 albeit probably not that cold in West Yorkshire.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
Of course it would be, considering the 17C June this year was the warmest on record. That said, a 17C September would only narrowly beat the current warmest on record which is 2006, having a CET of 16.9C.
The CET was 17C and not the warmest on record. It was the UK average that was hottest and that will have been a little different.
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4 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
I personally don't go for this "a warm September means a mild winter" theory. Winter is still three months away and anything can happen in that time. Plus, it's very early days as to whether or not we'll have a warm September. No doubt that the first half of the month will be warmer than average, but that doesn't mean that the second half of the month will be also.
I had a look at the warmest September's recently and essentially there's no bad link overall but recent warm September's have disorted this.
2 hours ago, Don said:September 1907 only had a CET of 13.6C.
The reason why 15C and above is used as a benchmark is because no recorded winters following a September with that CET or more have been cold.
How are we defining 'cold'?
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Rolling CET for September-August fell to 10.76C.
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Wonderful picture from a meteorological prospecive.
You can see Franklin undergoing extra-tropical transition and how Idiala has caught the same weakness and is being dragged along. You can also see that Jose and Gery are being sheared apart by the gyre.
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7 hours ago, damianslaw said:
8th warmest perhaps but skewed massively by June and aided by SSTs. July and August very average. Wont be remembered at all as a particularly warm summer, and max only 32 degrees. One thing that has helped are the warm SSTs, on paper July should have been much cooler and August probably even a bit below average.
I'd rank it on a par with 2015, 2020 in many respects. Lower league of summers since 2012.
I don't think it's comparable to 2015 due to June. It does rank somewhere between the average to poor group for 2013>, better than 2017 but worse than 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
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Would have to disagree with this, at least outside the dying embers early next year.
A proper modiki Nino is modiki at peak and we like that because at peak it's forcing the strong convection to be at its highest amplitude over or west of the dateline allowing for poleward heat transport in the right place. By the time 2009 peaked in December, it had 3.4 at +1.7 but 1.2 had already fallen to +0.6. That's a heavy gradient. Or Jan 92 which peaked at +1.7 in 3.4 with 1.2 at 0.1.
What models currently show is a cooler version of 2015 which peaked in Nov at +2.8 with 1.2 at 2.0. You have a decent gradient but the sheer warmth still available will not make it a Modiki.
Currently, i think it's reasonable to believe this will end up warmer in the west as Nino 1.2 cools but a Modiki, i don't see that being credible anywhere near peak. Thus, basin wide continues to be my favoured bet (not that this is always bad, 92 was modiki and the winter was pretty average while 87 was basin wide and the winter produced).
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Reading back, i think several of you are mistaking basin wide and Modiki.
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Minimal tropical convection in the Pacific for the next two weeks would normally point to an unsettled pattern but we do have a FISH at major strength upsetting this for week 1.
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The Asian Monsoon is forecast to end soon which should allow Nino forcing to be stronger (think of the summer as having many warm areas trying to compete, this is less of an issue as we head towards winter). Thus we will know by the middle of October if this event is a full blooded Nino or whether we've just been riding off the coattails of the warm west Pacific that finally let loose.
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The humidity tonight is definitely the worst for some time.
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4 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
As far as historical analogues go, right now there are around an equal number of (I should note, non-seasonal forecast; I'm talking about personal 'gut feelings') things pointing in the directions of 2009 and 2015 so far. This of course would be expected from a hybrid of those two years: -QBO and Super Nino, respectively. Right now, it could go in either one of those directions, or maybe even both (one month is a January 2010, the other is a December 2015 in no particular order), or perhaps neither and we'll see something entirely different. As others have pointed out, there really isn't much of a historical analogue for the situation we find ourselves in. We're in uncharted territory, and the seasonals are going to reflect that at this stage, as are many of the gut feelings.
Yeah. I basically have (Jan-March) 73, 87, 10, 15 and 19 as my preferred set for QBO, PDO and ONI. It's a mixed outcome.
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4 hours ago, Beanz said:
Oh I don’t know, I think most of the comments regarding that have been just as well reasoned. Whilst I can’t remember them ever accurately forecasting a winter, they’re no different to any other LRF. It’s just a bit of fun and they’re having a go too.
In truth I don't recall their prior forecasts albeit I'm given to understand they are proper mets there (American I assume). But there were a few early comments quit dismissive or suggesting that the QBO was not taken into account ect..
Personally I don't buy any long range forecast because their records are always somewhat questionable and I trust my own thoughts (wrong or right) at such range but I do think that there's a little too much excitement from some quarters. Neither EL Nino or -QBO guarantees a cool winter and I'm sure if records went back further, statistics would back that.
As alluded to, while I don't personally view them as the strongest analogues, the kind of pattern alluded to did play out for winters 05 and 15 so El Nino (though weaker then) can produce that kind of outcome and in quite recent times.
1 hour ago, jules216 said:Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.
I was referring to 14/15 rather than the later.
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Enjoyed seeing some dismiss the forecast from Severe Weather Europe despite it being well reasoned and arguably playing out as recently as winter 2015 and possibly 05.
They are basically saying the main trough will push into Scandinavia and promote a high over south east Europe with the Azores High probably influencing western Europe. But that might suggest a good month where the trough is better placed, especially since the forecast is for a -AO.
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Not much debate on the models now. We lose the ridge on Tues-Weds then the only debate is how unsettled it becomes to end summer.
In the longer run as Tamara alludes to, we have seen the tropical convection support pass with the ongoing WWB in the East Pacific likely to be replaced by a subdued Pacific signal.
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20 hours ago, Metwatch said:
34.4C was the max in Gravesend in 2016, 13th September.
1906, it reached 35.6C on the 2nd In south Yorkshire.
We were also above 30C in 2013 if memory serves.
9 hours ago, Premier Neige said:Don't want a warm September. It's a tenuous link but September's that are well above average seem to be followed by mild winters....
Looking at the top 10 September CET's (15.6C+) and the following Jan-March (also note 3 of the top 6 inside 15 years and 4 of the top 9 inside 22 years).
1729 - AAA
1760 - AAA
1780 - CAA
1795 - WAC
1865 - AAC
1999 - AWA
2006 - WAA
2016 - AWW
2021 - AWW
W - 1C+
A - Average
C - 1C-
Small sample of course but it suggests the long term record might not support it but that we have seen a more recent run of warmth following warm September's.
3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:yep we have had 8 days above 30c this year all coming between May 1st - June 10th
i think that myth crashed and burned after the very warm October of 2001
As per the above for October (top 11, 12.5C+)..
1831 - CCC
1921 - CAC
1959 - CCA
1968 - ACC
1969 - CCC
1995 - ACC
2001 - AWA
2005 - ACC
2006 - WAA
2011 - ACW
2022 - AWA
Much more mixed with perhaps hint of recent warmth but generally you can see why people would think it.
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Having been busy the last day or two I came expecting to make a post about the upcoming heat but instead it looks like we have model unity now and that after our second wind it looks like the trough should push through. Dare I say that summer is almost over.
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The Heat Haters Club 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The lack of wind has brought the humid feeling up.