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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Assuming 11.5C to the 20th, what do we get if the last third averages 3C, 4C, 5C or 6C.
  2. summer blizzard
    According to Cohen the pattern of a Siberian High and cold air pouring into the Orient is exactly what we want to see for the SAI to start driving the winter pattern and produce the -AO given our great snow gains south of 60N.
  3. summer blizzard
    I'm calling a level 3 ramp alert on this one. Mentions of prior cold winters and speculation about what if we saw the Greenland and Scandi High's join in addition to longevity.
  4. summer blizzard
    The SSTOI index has different values to the cpc (though not a million miles away) but if we take the cpc values and the 0.7 bias to 3.4 over 1.2 (2.8 vs 2.1) then we have the strongest bias to the west since since March 2010 possibly. Hopefully we can see 1.2 weaken enough that the atmosphere responds more as if west based than basin wide.
  5. summer blizzard
    09 peaked in Feb 10 I believe.
  6. summer blizzard
    I'd not worry too much for now, the current pattern over the US is not yet defined enough for a Nino event so the dominant winter pattern had probably not manifested yet.
  7. summer blizzard
    We might match 97 in 3.4 but there's no chance in 1.2.
  8. summer blizzard
    July-Oct has seen the longest -AO string since Oct-March 2012/2013.
  9. summer blizzard
    What were the CET's of the second halves of 05 and 10.
  10. summer blizzard
    That day 8 profile around Greenland on the 18z GFS is beautiful. One low providing WAA and another negatively tilted.
  11. summer blizzard
    Good post although this Nino is not east based.
  12. summer blizzard
    Not sure there's an official limit but if we take the Nov-March data of the 09/10 Nino then you can see (for me, region 1.2 needs to fall below 1).. Nov 1.2: 0.5 3.4: 1.5 Dec 1.2: 0.3 3.4: 1.7 Jan 1.2: 0.3 3.4: 1.5 Feb 1.2: -0.1 3.4: 1.2 Mar 1.2: -0.4 3.4: 1
  13. summer blizzard
    1.2 still too warm even if cooling slowly now. It's basin wide for now.
  14. summer blizzard
    I'm calling a level 2 ramp alert on some of the model posts. Giddiness and a comparison to winter 2010. Although the chart is beautiful at day 16.
  15. summer blizzard
    My phone seems to be dodgy, can anybody give me the asl for a friend of HD4 7NL
  16. summer blizzard
    Did JET not do that?
  17. summer blizzard
    GFS has the Atlantic making progress from day 9 while GEM has the high further north with the threat of cooler surface weather. Steps forward perhaps.
  18. summer blizzard
    Regarding the vertical flux we apparently need for trop-strat coupling from Cohen, are there any synoptic features we should look out for to indicate this in advance outside the Arctic.
  19. summer blizzard
    I know. Does'nt matter to the point i made though, most of them are close to average.
  20. summer blizzard
    Looking deeper at your sample for the Jan-March period i don't actually think things would be that bad. Of the 21 months, 4 were 1C below average and 5 were 1C above average so more than half the months were relatively close to average.
  21. summer blizzard
    I'm not so sure, i'm cautiously optimistic. While only 98 and 83 will compare in numbers this winter, the sample size of 2 is just too small to really say much. After widening my analysis a few weeks back to include all events above 1 in the MEI i did find that while Nov, Dec and Mar have no AO bias, west and basin wide events (this event is basin wide and headed west based eventually) do display a -AO bias during Jan and Feb. No guarantee of cold weather for the UK but it does increase the likelyhood that it won't be an 07 stinker.
  22. summer blizzard
    We've not had a month this year more than 1C away from the 1981-2010 average so i'm sticking with my prediction albeit i do think that Nov or Dec is the most likely to break that duct since October was calmer than expected.
  23. summer blizzard
    I think that winter 13 will be a decent analogue. Stormy December, cold Jan and Feb. I don't think March will be special though.
  24. summer blizzard
    Update from Cohen is that we have an above normal snow increase and other factors all combine to a -AO winter forecast. No current strat-trop coupling is occurring to bring about this -AO signal for at least the next two weeks however we should be looking out for a vertical wave increase to signal.
  25. summer blizzard
    Until region 1.2 cools to the point that it's below 1C above the norm i suspect that the atmosphere will respond as if basin wide rather than west based.
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