summer blizzard

Some interesting findings regarding the AO this winter. So essentially the AO has been positive more often than it has been negative however interestingly this winter has also had an above normal frequency of very negative AO values with the -AO periods having a greater amplitude than the +AO periods. This may explain why despite probably being the mildest on record this winter will still have two ten day periods which beat anything 07 or 14 produced in terms of the CET.

Interestingly we here in West Yorkshire are into our 5th straight afternoon of sunshine (the first such streak in a good while). Feels quite springlike.

So just to update you all from the 6th Jan to 3rd Feb.. 1.2: -0.6 3.4: - Region 1.2 is seeing a relatively rapid fall now (though the last week saw a rise) while region 3.4 is stagnant. 3: -0.5 4: +0.1 We see here that this is because region 4 is not loosing heat even if region 3 is. .. Absolute values on the 3rd.. 1.2: 1.2C 3.4: 2.6C .. Seems highly likely to me that we are about to lose this basin wide Nino and transition to a west based one. Looking at data this has not occurred in Spring since before 1980 bar March 2010 so analogues are sparse for west based forcing during Q2.

I'm suprised there's no threat of freezing rain on Wednesday from the runs with milder uppers. High pressure and sub-5 850's ahead should create a pool of cold surface air which if we do get the milder uppers i would have thought would lead to a threat of freezing rain.

As much as everybody is chasing snow at the moment the most notable thing here in Yorkshire (away from the east coast) looks to how dry things look with only a weak looking low next Wednesday really threatening to produce precipitation. Just hope this easterly produces sunshine in similar quantities to today and yesterday. Really nice afternoons. On the whole the models get a thumbs up from me.

All looks dry here in West Yorkshire. Fronts too far south and then dry straight northerlies. I'm just hoping for sun.

A lot of my potted flowers which usually die and then sleep for the winter have actually flowered again. Only other time i recall this happening was the winter of 14.

Winter 06 was dry, cold, frosty and sunny but unremarkable from a CET point of view. Winter 12 was a horror show until early Feb.

To put aside or search for cold for one second. If we want the kind of spring months that were seen in March 12, May 07 and May 08 then what do we want to be seeing from the stratosphere and teleconnections.

Many of our great cold spells have occured in tandem with a +PNA (what typically delivers for the eastern US). It's probably more true to say that a +PNA simply reduces the middle ground and we either get the cold spell or go zonal. May 08 was brilliant and the first half explained exactly what synoptics we need to beat the existing record holder. Your right though, we've had relatively settled May's but we rarely see a high parked over/east to deliver the warmth with it.

What was the CET for the middle third of the month? I notice each year that most people put on their rose tinted glasses and latch onto one choice thing that guarantees a cold winter. As much as i did think we were going to go colder than average in Jan-Feb, a cursory evaluation of +MEI/+QBO combinations would have told people that most December's and February's were pretty awful. I don't blame El Nino on it's own for this winter but i'd say that to expect a west based pattern when the east Pacific is still above 1C is highly unlikely.

Increase my prediction to 5.4C.

We're getting there (1.2 is now 1.2 lower than 3.4) but when you consider atmospheric lags and the fact that the gap may be not be sufficient anyway, it's unlikely that this will deliver.

I must admit that March 12 ruined me. I went from your classic 'winter ever lasting' to wanting a repeat every year. It was just so perfect in every way, temperatures near 20C, stupendous amounts of sunshine (here in Leeds we burned the cloud back so sunshine totals beat 2003) and it was also pretty dry. No humidity of course as well.

Given that the SSW this winter (or close to it anyway) looks fairly late the lagged effects will probably ensure a cooler than average first half to March (or rather a -AO first half to March and probable CET correlation). Regarding the rest of Spring i'm going to take a view based on the persistence of at least moderate El Nino conditions and a neutral QBO. Analogues March MEI: 2010, 2005, 1998, 1992, 1987, 1983, 1958 Taking into account QBO: 2005, 1998 Bias above and below average: Average and Above average April MEI: 1998, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1983, 1958 Taking into account QBO: 1998 Bias above and below average: Average May MEI: 2015, 1998, 1997, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1983 Taking into account QBO: 2015, 1998 Bias above and below average: Average and Above Average ...... So on the whole and taking into account the fact that i don't expect the Spring pattern to manifest until the second half of March i would suggest that both March and April will be within 1C of the 1981-2010 average with May having the greatest possibility of an above average CET. Just for fun..

Stick me in for 4.9C at the moment. I suspect that any bite this winter has won't be felt until the second half of Feb and by that time it will be too late to redeem what will have been a poor winter.

GFS0z very close at day 9.

Viewing the models in recent days it has been interesting to see the continued capitulation of the models to a blockier pattern. We can be fairly certain that the Atlantic will win out (though i'm still shown -6C on Wednesday morning from the GFS) but it looks increasingly likely that most of England will be under the firm grip of persistent pressure builds from the south and east. In the long run, this could easily develop,

Kimbrace now reporting -10C. Have to imagine that somewhere like Shap with snow on the ground will plummet once the clear sky arrives.

West Yorkshire for the the win.

Complete capitulation from the GFS0z. Postcode forecast still has me at 0C on Thursday. Also suggests snow today and Monday. Current radar has the precipitation down as far south as Northern Ireland but only as far east as Glasgow so can't be sure of snow yet.

It's the hypothetical cold spell that will occur once the telleconective pattern resets or we get a SSW. In reality there's a decent chance of something below average returning but to forecast a major cold spell over a simple 'frost, fog and snow for Scotland' is not possible weeks out.

The day 5 onward outlook really is a case of 'if only it were x'. Just imagine the 18z replicated in March.

No. For one thing the uppers in hurricanes are above 10C and for anything, it would no longer have a symmetrical warm core. Outside of mountains, a fully tropical hurricane cannot produce snow.

One thing to note from all outputs in the longer range is that pressure does remain somewhat high over the UK so we are unlikely to replicate December's washout for most. Instead, i imagine that most of England will probably stay rather dry with current outputs.