summer blizzard

Right now (assuming we don't get a sudden cold surge in 3.4) we have a west based Nino which is weakening at a fair pace (we will record negative values across the board in June probably) so i suspect a summer that may start well but get progressively worse is probably a good bet. For Autumn and winter there are conflicting analogues with 2011 being the last time we have a Nina/-QBO sync (along with 2007) and both of those saw the following winters be a bit poo. On the other hand though, 2005 was quite a nice winter (dry and frosty).

What a difference a week makes. 1.2 at 0.1C and the cold pool underneath is now surfacing. Hello La Nina (probably)..

Naturally i'm not suggesting we can't have three fine days and a thunderstorm but suggesting that the last day of August makes the month is like saying that because we got 32.4C on the 28th May that year, May was good. On average, August was a relatively uneventful month from memory with a very average CET value. I'd call that going out with a whimper on the whole. The period from mid-June to mid-July was actually very good with the second half of June still being the hottest since 1976, it certainly went downhill in the second half of July though.

At the current rate it's likely Q3 will see.. - A weakening but near neutral ENSO profile, east based warmth if anything - A strengthening -QBO Since 1980 the following Q3 periods have seen a neutral to warm ENSO coupled with a strengthening -QBO.. 2005 2014 These years produced their heat fairly early in summer and went out with a whimper.

Current (11th April).. 1.2: 1.3C 3.4: 1.3C Monthly change. (7th March-11th April). 1.2: +0.3 3.4: -0.6

1C below the 1981-2010 average. First below average month since September and probably the largest anomaly since May.

Mr Data. I was wondering if you have the data for the first 20C and 25C since say 2011.

Probably, i'd imagine. The Aug 1990 peak (3rd i think) was probably more efficient in terms of getting 37C from apparently 17C uppers.

Anybody know the dates for the first 20C and 25C since say 2011.

8.5C.

2010 was an extreme example. The Feb MEI value peaked at +1.5 but by the following December we'd recorded the second strongest Nina on record. The key question here is whether the PDO will collapse and back it up so to speak. Winters 09 and 11 were notably cold and both had La Nina. The important thing seems to be to avoid the ENSO and QBO coupling (i.e a La Nina with a +QBO seems to be better than a GLAAM to the floor ---- everything combination).

Will the average for the final third being above 6C? Despite the overall mild winter it's interesting that we had a solidly below average period from Feb 10th to March 20th.

Was expecting rain today however the pitiful front seems incapable of producing anything for west yorkshire due to a rain shadow. Could well be Saturday before rainfall which would be 16 full days without precipitation.

It's certainly not been comparable to 2012 which was even sunnier than 2003 in Leeds and it's also lacked the real warmth of 2012 or 2011 but it's been okay. A few too many cloudy days for my liking but it has come sunny quite a lot and to go 14 full days without precipitation even in March is very impressive.

Which MJO phases are best for settled weather in April?

Given the current model output i wonder if we hit 20 days without rainfall for the first time since 2013. With high pressure holding firm, we look good for perhaps 2 weeks from Wednesday's rain.

Update.. 3.4: 1.9 1.2: 1.0 .. Monthly fall (3rd Feb-7th March - i missed last weeks, hence the extra week).. 3.4: -0.7 1.2: -0.2 .. Highly likely that summer will see ENSO neutral conditions.

Euro kept the high too far away bar day 9 for my liking. GEM looks great but you risk a cool, cloudy easterly. GFS is great from day 9. .. Confidence building of a settled spell of some kind which given the March sun should get us a good durinal range.

Well you can see above that there's snow around 250m and Bingley is reporting 1C but i'm not sure what height the station is at. Who knows.

Looks like precipitation is about to clear Leeds on radar. We'll all have to wait for the system to drag the front before we get another go. Hopefully in the meantime we can see the temperature drop.

Looks like the front is about to leave South Yorkshire so game over until later for those in the south. Later on tonight as the low moves east we should see precipitation come back. I'm not in South Yorkshire but beyond a bit of drizzle it looks like i'll probably end up catching the gap for a while.

It's drizzling.. blasphemy. The radar suggests the weather gods will do us a favour anyway. Anywhere south of Leeds is probably going to see it stop in a few hours unless things change.

Bad news for those in South Yorkshire.. the shape of the band means that the narrow bit will pass to the north so expect precipitation to stop completely soon.

Frack me.. massive flaked now. I do hope this is'nt caused by more moisture and a bad sign.