summer blizzard

Pretty sure i saw a meteor at about 00:30 last night. Are we passing through a comet tail?

Am i right in thinking that all these spotless days have occurred since May?

Interesting. Possibly there higher resolution (non public) models are making more of it. I suspect that the two biggest threats to it are it's speed (hard to avoid a tilted vortex) and dry air.

GFS kills it in a few days.

Adding in the fact that we've seen 4 tropical storms so far my forecast is.. 14-16 named storms 6-8 hurricanes 2-4 major hurricanes

Although not abnormally cool or wet i would say that this summer has been abnormally westerly and abnormally homogeneous in the sense that until last week there was nothing we could consider a proper warm spell up here (even transiently, it's unusual in Leeds to go from the 3rd June to 19th July with not a day above 25C). One could probably sumise that the lack of a real warm spell is because this summer has been abnormally mobile but the lack of temperature or precipitation extremes can be explained by this mobility occuring north of the UK.

The easterlies are forecast to surge over the Pacific which should produce a negative GLAAM response towards the 10th-20th August. I'd be very wary.

I'll be making my usual basic anologue forecast for the numbers this week but it would be highly unlikely for a neutral/Nina season to produce anything other than an average to above average August-October.

Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.

August can be an interesting month in feel but by the end (such as in 2011 and 2010) you can feel that summer is rapidly ending.

Weirdly we are losing leaves here and not green ones. Possibly just a weather quirk but interesting none the less.

How many sunspots did we get in 2015 and how many so far this year?

I'd ignore the CFS, it's a load of rubbish. I'm optimistic though.

Yeah. Unless that thing actually forms and makes TS then July is a wright off. GFS has been suggesting something past day 10 but that could just be fodder.

16.4C.

GFS does form a system of some sort as early as day 6 although once it cuts off from the ITCZ it quickly hits dry air and dies.

In addition to Tamara's post implying that the pacific westerlies will weaken, we also have a forecast for stronger trade winds. Could see La Nina stregthen some.

Agreed. I'm remembering why i dislike warmer spells later in the summer. Bring on the Autumn i say.

Certainly not cold for the next few days but the GFS and Canadian do end the month on a cooler and more unsettled note.

GFS ends July on a cooler and more unsettled note than the Euro or GEM..

Not sure the GFS is right with showers breaking out come evening but the main breakdown is now approaching the south west.

Although Leeds can often be warmer than Manchester i'd have thought that since SE spells deliver both of our greatest heat that their record maxima would be higher than ours. Record in Leeds is 34C.

Interestingly it looks like tropical cyclone heat potential is at near record levels in the Atlantic and Carribean this year. Latest Nina update still had enhanced westerlies over the Pacific so will probably have to wait a while for the Atlantic to wake up. .

What a horrid day yesterday was. High cloud and very humid. I allowed myself to be suckered in by you all. Today is at least sunny but my god, it's warm. GFS suggesting possible thunder from 4pm.

3.4 has fallen to -0.6. 1.2 has fallen to 0. An official weak Nina will probably be declared in September/October.