summer blizzard

Looks more normal again now..

1.2: 0.5 3.4: -0.5

Went in and found 55mph winds however the center is somewhat exposed so the NHC won't declare. It all comes down to the durinal minimum.

A very poor state of affairs (anomalies of 0.6, 0.2 and ~0.6). Only the second half of July really had enough warm weather to warrant such a feat. Consistently unspectacular is how i'd describe it.

99L has improved somewhat overnight becoming a single blob and you can see evidence of winds from the S/E/N so we're just waiting for the circulation to close. Google maps suggest this will probably happen today if things hold up. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-50.71,16.42,3000/loc=-61.497,17.006 Euro loves it again.

Recon were unimpressed as suspected and i still think the circulation is quite broad (though it's probably not having a problem closing, i think the main problem is it's lack of definition) however it does look fairly stacked (so no speed/shear issues). If you look below then the center is more or less where the deepest blob of convection is but over a larger area, the top half of the storm is probably going to make it look like a Sonic the Hedgehog type system if it actually develops. Speaking of.. the Euro went nuts again..

Circulation is too broad and not really closed off. It won't be declared tonight however it's making progress.

Not a cane (no real eyewall), just a very well defined circulation.

99L appears to be getting some model support for development, the last Euro's especially have had the panhandle seeing a cat 2/3. It's also firing -80C cloudtops this morning. Currently we do have a broad low underneath the convection and now a 60% chance of development. Looks like dry air is the main problem as well as Fiona's remains.

Just tomorrow (and possibly Wednesday depending on front timing) to get through here then there's every chance that for all intensive purposes, summer will be done.

Ha. 2005 was the most active season on record with more than twice the average named storms. 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were all above average. The season to date looks on track to match the NHC forecast of the most active since 2012, by the time August is out we may have seen our first major. .. You may imagined the other seasons being poor due to quality, 2012 and 2013 failed to produce even one category 4 and the last seasons were on the lower end of average (though the quality went up markedly).

3 of the last 4 GFS runs have had 99L in the Gulf.

GFS18z is an east coast hit at 979mb (cat 2). GFS seems to have decided it wants development, the question is how strong the ridging is. Of course the Euro kills it.

As much as some seem to love to the idea of a plume i have to say that this week has been lovely, especially outside of the sun. As such i'm hoping that GEM is closer to reality..

98L at 90%. Euro is extremely aggressive with the wave dropping off Africa in 5 days. A hurricane more or less by the time it's passed the Cape Verde islands.

98L has a 70% chance of development. It's a definite FISH so watch the output for the UK splutter once it gets close to the Jet Stream. Euro develops another wave off of Africa around day 6.

1.2 fell to 0.1. 3.4 fell to -0.7.

I'd urge caution in the long term since both the Euro and GFS are showing the hurricane season becoming more active.

Global models becoming more bullish after day 5. GFS develops 2 systems including this tasty fellow..

I'd not be shocked if we ended up below the 1981-2010 average although i think a 1C departure from average (15.4C) is off the table.

By Friday the 12z has the Atlantic back in full control..

GFS also suggests we'll struggle to breach the low twenties.

Interestingly the cold tropical anomolies in the west Atlantic seem to have had little effect so far, the number of waves rolling off Africa have been no less strong or in number than usual. The problem is over the main development region and that's probably more caused by the fact that until now we've been maintaining westerlies in 1.2 which tends to strengthen shear in the Atlantic.

On that tune i took a look at analogues for the Autumn in my opinion and they went for a cool and unsettled September but mild and anticyclonic October with a cooler but settled November.