summer blizzard

94L at 90%.

Although there's nothing intensely cool in the model output it is at least a comfort for some that models show a much more normal picture afterward in terms of heat..

Winters 09 and 11 both saw negative ENSO values and positive QBO values. ......... The real question to me is what level of the atmosphere dictates our weather most. If we look at 30hpa where we have a more than 1 standard deviation to the QBO the anologues are very different to others.

After the breakdown late next week confidence looks lower with GFS and Euro each doing their own thing. Autumn fans will be hoping for the UKMO or GEM to be on the money..

One of the posts on the Twitter feed shows the mean xonal winds and still supports the current detatchment we have right now. Now at some point though this will end but it's too early to say who'll win i think.

1.2: 0.3 3.4: -0.7 ONI for JJA finally went negative at -0.3.

Horrid minima.

Gaston lasted 12 days but is now dead.

For those of us wanting Autumn the GFS is not all that cool but with brisk easterlies and fronts being thrown up, we'd have our Autumn beginning.

71KT confirmed is 82mph so yeah, it was a hurricane. Since windspeeds are not distributed in a system equally it's not a shock that a buoy may have missed the strongest winds. Additionally, the technology used by reconnaissance flights is more accurate.

Euro this morning restricts the real heat to Tuesday-Wednesday which is positive for those wanting Autumn to get going.

System peaked with 71KT (82mph) sustained winds, winds at flight level were around 90KT (103mph). Validated reports that the storm surge reached 10 feet with significant flooding and more than 100,000 people without power. 982mb. Apparently the camera i was watching at Cedar Key before bed took a hit from a floating pier that did not survive which i thought quite amusing. Apparently somebody recorded it so i'll post when the guy does. All in all a pretty pleasing system in the end and one which was strengthening right up to landfall.

Made us wait and it's a shame we don't have another 24 hours but the end result has certainly been impressive. Gusts to 95mph on the coast.

Looking much better now..

Victory! Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.

Eyewall now closed. Not sure whether the NHC have to wait for the surface wind speed or not but this may be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory.

Has about 80% of an eye.

Now at 65mph, 18 mile eyewall open on the west side.

Recon has found a found a partial eyewall and 71KT flight level winds. She's finally starting to blow.

I'd pour scorn on such mild predictions but the Euro barely gets rid of the 10C isothern over the next ten days.

Maximum sustained winds are now 60mph, forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. Interestingly our seasonal ACE total is running marginally above the rolling average.

Dry air but the satellite presentation looks brilliant. Latest update increased to 45mph, forecast to make landfall at 70mph with a 6 foot storm surge.

Talk about a storm shield, shear has completely detached Madeline. Very windy in Hawaii no doubt (it's low level circulation will still be around hurricane force) but not a drop of rain by the looks of it.

NHC being pretty conservative in strength, recon found 46KT before it left Does look like a strengthening system finally though.