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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Yes, its interesting to see both 1.2 and 3.4 opposing each other. This is borne out by the fact that we have enhanced easterlies west of 120W, but enhanced westerlies persisting east of 120W.
  2. summer blizzard
    Euro has a nice settled weekend with reasonable uppers (temperatures look in the low twenties for mos) but is not especially impressed with the notion of the plume.
  3. summer blizzard
    What a lovely GFS run post day 8, it attempts not to melt me.
  4. summer blizzard
    When was the last week long August settled spell (of the type shown by the GFS).
  5. summer blizzard
    Earl has now made landfall near the capital of Belize. Damn shame it did too because you can see from the very dark convection and structure that if this were a thousand miles east, it would have deepened very rapidly.
  6. summer blizzard
    As i postulated a few days ago, Earl has become quite a large system and i must say it's also a pretty one. Not often you see 3 outflow channels which is a reflection of just how ideal conditions are. Just a shame it left it a bit late to develop, we'd have quite the monster had this got going early. Still, just over 24 hours to go from 45 to 75mph.
  7. summer blizzard
    Cracker of a potent cold shot (for August) in terms of how potent it could be..
  8. summer blizzard
    Impressive. Summer to go out on a whimper?
  9. summer blizzard
    NOAA still has 3.4 at -0.5C so Nina probably would be declared in October should that persist.
  10. summer blizzard
    60mph, 996mb.
  11. summer blizzard
    Will need to wait for light in the US to see a decent image but it could be named today.
  12. summer blizzard
    While we have had some fodder runs going for it those have the system develop almost immediately which is why the stronger system is pulled further north (and gets a lucky angle). I tend to suspect that we won't actually see much happen for 48 hours or so as it's not until then that the system slows sufficiently.
  13. summer blizzard
    Now at 70%.
  14. summer blizzard
    May not win any awards for strength but its a pure blood tropical system that should be big and look good on satellite. The wierd GFS18z just sends it round and round the Bay of Campeche tonight.
  15. summer blizzard
    Confidence growing tonight on two things.. 1) 96L is probably a bust (high shear is forecast to persist and the atmosphere dry out), it's already less organised than yesterday 2) 97L is where the real action is with forecast shear downgraded and by days 4-5 a slowing system, abundant moisture and sea temperatures around 30C. Needless to say, the GFS was pretty aggressive tonight..
  16. summer blizzard
    September may be statistically to June in maxima but it's neither as sunny nor dry in all likelyhood. Coupled with the day length, it does not feel like summer.
  17. summer blizzard
    Ships actually has a pretty good environment for 97L if it actually makes it to day 4 and avoids being shredded.
  18. summer blizzard
    Personally i'm with you. I like sunshine and don't mind heat but prefer it early (May-July). Since August has arrived (though frankly the last two days would not be out of place in early October) i'm ready for Autumn and want to start looking ahead to the frosts that it can bring and the winter season.
  19. summer blizzard
    If we start to get a GLAMM or amplified MJO response then you can just about wave goodbye.
  20. summer blizzard
    96L now at 50% for 5 day development.
  21. summer blizzard
    Peak season in which ~80% of activity occurs is August-October. We already had four tropical storms in June even if July was quiet.
  22. summer blizzard
    All indications are that this hurricane season will be average to above average.
  23. summer blizzard
    Looks like a TD to me but perhaps there's no closed circulation..
  24. summer blizzard
    At their current speeds i don't think either makes it. GFS picks up both but 97L has no spin, 96L currently has cloud tops of -80C and has spin but dies (probably because it never has a proper vortex).
  25. summer blizzard
    Do you have the years going into the last solar minimum. We could just be in a patch however it would be nice to think that we could start to pile up 20 per every two months. Amazing how different the winters of 2013 and 2014 were.
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