summer blizzard

3.4 recorded -0.5 for the first time today.

I'm pretty sure stuff like that is triggered by cool nights (shock therapy if you will).

Probably worth watching for the effects of hurricanes during September and October this year given that atmospheric indicators would suggest September-October will probably see average to above normal activity and that means recurring systems messing with our weather.

Given how bad the Augusts of 2011 and 2014 were, it's hard to imagine just how you'd get a sub 14 summer month.

Saturday-Thursday looks quite warm for most of England from GFS (maxima of 25-29C). Euro makes it Saturday-Tuesday.

So it's the American models (GFS and GEM) vs the Euro.. Both models stay warm until about Tuesday but then differ..

3.4 stayed at -0.4. 1.2 dropped to 0.2.

Now i'm not somebody who hates cool weather in summer but even i must admit that the first half has been quite poor. Although not overly cool or wet we're headed to the 20th July with Leeds having seen just one spell where temperatures pushed 25C (all the way back in early June). The complete lack of heat even if not overly cool is surprising, it's also been pretty dull. I'm also pretty sure that every third since the first third of June will have come in below average.

I'm curious where today's models would have us end up given the capitulation to the Atlantic.

GFS and Euro want to bring a transient ridge over the UK from days 7-9 which may please some however to be honest, the rest of the 0z run is pretty awful. Indeed GEM does not even go for the ridge really..

Another set of runs giving no inspiration. Looks likely to me that we'll get to July 20th without another proper heatwave.

1.2 bounced back up but 3.4 stayed the same. Another westerly burst strangely.

All models tonight vary between average and poor in days 5-15 for me, certainly not a stunning set of runs for July..

Not an inspiring run as we see at the day 5, 10 and 15 intervals..

Oh dear. These runs lack the channel low type floods of 07/12 but they are some of the worst summer runs i have seen.

Given the poor modelling, what do we have to work with for sub-15C values to the 10th in terms of year.

As optimistic as GFS is the Euro and GEM don't really go with it..

Geronimo... As alluded to previously easterlies have both expanded and strengthened causing upwelling and we've seen a quick dive in readings by 0.5C for 1.2 and 0.6C for 3.4. Current readings then.. 1.2: -0.1 3.4: -0.4 La Nina on the way.

Lower me to an average 16.7C.

Christ, it's not even July. Fodder storms but its only a matter of time before one of these unusually aggressive waves is ready as far west as the Antilles.

1.2 has cooled but 3.4 increased to 0.2 according to the NOAA. Easterlies returning though as the current westerly wind burst ends so i'd expect another round of cooling to begin in the next week or two.

We have Tropical Depression 4. Will only be over water another 24-48 hours though so probably a name waster.

Pencil me in for 17.7C. A wet month but a warm one due to minima.

I suspect it's just a bit of luck on the timing in terms of actual development, the B&C storms both formed during the last period of Pacific divergence which in the near Tropics (Atlantic) probably produced a La Nina like signal (lower pressures, more convergence). This one is a bit more weird in that the Pacific is seeing convergence and westerlies so development should be unlikely in the Caribbean. The better question is why these waves are making it across the Atlantic strong enough to actually develop. So far as we can see the MJO has not been especially active over Indonesia so we are not seeing an especially unusual frequency of waves dropping off Africa and nor should the Atlantic be massively favourable to survival (though it may suggest an enhanced Cape Verde season perhaps?). Perhaps one of the boffins who knows more about Kelvin and walker cells and whatever else will be able to give us an answer.

Been watching it in recent days but development was unsure.