summer blizzard

Having looked around at the data i don't consider the coming La Nina to be under much threat from this rise, it looks temporary as it's mainly being driven by a converging wave and associated westerly wind burst. The next area of divergence is already progressing from the west and should strengthen the easterlies causing further declines in time. I would be highly doubtful that June as a whole will register a rise even if the next update or two do. I'm with the dynamic over statistical models with this one.

Once again the GFS parks the high west of the Azores and then just keeps it there the entire run. The Euro shows what happens when that ridge starts to amplify.

An interesting GFS18z, the Azores high from day 5 to 16 basically parks itself in the same place and just stays there. Strong evidence of a westerly dominated pattern if that's the case though with the troughs and transient ridge extensions fighting it out.

2005 and 2011 both had 32C hit before the solistace.

Strange to see how much 1.2 has jumped around although its interesting that 3.4 rose too.

That's a chart from Bonnie. It formed and gave us rain.

I suspect the GFS and Euro are right but in the interest of balance they may be thinking something like the GEM..

Interesting outputs suggesting the warmest June since 06 may be likely. I'm still very wary of this warm June not been born out during most of the summer though with the analogues posted a few pages ago for shadowing that.

GFS is a little better than the Euro but loses pretty quickly. The outlook to day 10 is cyclonic and given the potential for showers, probably fairly wet.

A lot of optimism in this thread but to be honest, only the Euro looks remotely acceptable by day 10. This may not be 07 but it's pretty poor for the next third of June.

Lovely weather Sunday-Tuesday albeit it was too warm last night. Cloud has increased here this morning and Friday now looks a washout so i suspect those of us in West Yorkshire will have probably seen the best of it yesterday even if it stays warm for the remainder of the week. It's notable that whichever model you look at, those heights to the north seem to be ever present.

We have TD3.

The difference in modelling between the GFS and Euro is largely down to the interaction of the wave currently in the Carribean which will develop over the weekend and exit into the Atlantic mid week as a secondary low. The GFS captures it early and essentially swings it north so that it never really affects the UK (the next low wins but that's an ordinary one). The Euro on the other hand allows the low to ride the Azores High and it never really gets properly captured so we have a low much further south headed straight for the UK. Welcome to hurricane season 2016 and its associated model flip flops.

New Invest, 60% chance of development. Track looks pretty certain (think Wilma) but we're probably looking at something no better than a moderate TS as it moves into Florida next Tuesday.

Consensus now seems to be that this relatively settled spell ends next Thursday. Both GFS and uro have the trough making it more or less over the UK.

15.0C

With heights still strong to the north i doubt we're looking at anything sustained in terms of a block to the south east however a few hot days and a thunderstorm is very possible,

The above suggestion seems a logical outcome to me given how unsustainable i consider the current pattern. Either we were going to see retrogression and a horror show or the Pacific was going to inject more energy into the Jet and we were going to see a more traditional N/S pattern which clearly leaves room for a transient hot spell as the high gets pushed east.

Statistically speaking July and August have only produced 16 months with a CET of 18C> between them in the past century so we're not even remotely overdue, to get two in the same summer would put us a par with 1911. 1976 and 1995.

Interestingly i did a little research just as a bit of fun to find some analogues.. The criteria were.. 1) All Q3 months must see -MEI values 2) Sep must have a more negative value than July (to mirror the strengthening forecast) 3) One month at least must have a value of >-1 (a little bullish but models do suggest a fair rapidity to the advancing Nina). 4) Must be a first year Nina (i.e. seen Nino or neutral/positive conditions before) The years i found were.. 1970 1973 1988 2007 2010 The picture they painted in July-September.. But the upcoming pattern looks nice i said (to which the analogues replied for June..).. .. Small sample and one variable i know but that is a disconcerting picture. Nice June makes way to horrid July and August. From a CET point of view 80% of those years saw July 1C> than the 1981-2010 average and 40% saw the same with August.

It looks like the first third of June will end up being quite dry and warm (sunny too in the west especially) however i must say that the models are only reinforcing my fears from a few days ago in that this pattern can't be sustainable. Getting summer weather from the lucky placement of a stretch of northern blocking is not something that comforts me. Either retrogression will occur or the Atlantic will strengthen and bring about a more classic N/S pattern.

For the August-Oct period i generally don't much care so long as the heat (or rather humidity) dies back however August 2014 was an exceptionally extreme month and by far the closest i've come to seeing a tornado. While other summer months have produced the very early cloud look, august 2014 saw right over my street a visible center of rotation with vertical vorcities inside. It was a little scary but exceptional and during the Aug-Oct period i'd take extremes over anything else.