summer blizzard

GFS suggests its sunny until Saturday pretty much (bar tommorow morning) and its being pretty good so far.

I doubt the sun was still producing daylight at 6pm last night, it was probably just the extremely clear sky. Yes, i woke up at 6.45 i think and the sun had risen and was level with my window, beautiful. .. Looks very likely we will have gone 2 weeks with no precipitation now. Hosepipe bans for the summer anyone?

The recent summers have been caused by very low GLAMM, if we can get close to an El Nino with our +QBO then we are good to go. With the milder uppers i suspect fog would be a bigger issue than very low minima but i'd expect say -5C in a Scottish valley, perhaps a few degrees below in the Vale of York. That's true but at this range the resolution isn't nearly good enough to take the models at the word for cloud amounts. I'd expect there to be more cloud along the east and south of the Midlands but i'd expect inland a lot of places to see the cloud burn back.

Lovely and sunny.

A beauty. I'd expect with such pressure and a strengthening sun inland you'd probably see the cloud burn back.

Having not got up until 1 i just assumed it had been sunny all day.

My memory of March must have overwhelmed any memories of sunshine last February.

Another lovely day here. GFS high resolution takes us to day 13 with no precipitation.

A dry and blocked month on the whole but the high may be west enough to produce inversions in the first half before it drifts south east in the second. 7.1C for me at this point, 0.5C above the 1981-2010 average.

I guess that's our target then.

When was the last February to breach the 100 mark?

I'd hate that minima but i'd be happy with that maxima if i could just lounge about. I have to say that the 3rd August chart is probably the most synoptically perfect chart i've seen.

In all honesty there's no guarantee, this year could follow one of the analogues or a mixture and they will change over time. One area of success i have had is using them for a percentage based forecast and also for the hurricane season.

I agree, its bringing back memories of last March which is getting me all happy. Looks sunny to me does the forecast though not as warm. As the high resolution output goes i'll be at 12 days with no precipitation which is a feat.

We may want to look at the GEM in future... MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS- VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE: - CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC RUNS. OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO 3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.

Looks dry for me.

Wow, in the highly unlikely event that the GFS18z came off we'd go 18 days at least with no precipitation. Upto 11 days in the high resolution (unless we get a surprise trough obviously).

Aye, getting towards the time of year when we can get some good durinal ranges. Yes but the difference was that there were plenty of troughs forecast, this for whatever reason away from the coast is forecast to be very dry.

Yup, constant dry frosty nothingness.

I had not realized how cool the first half of Feb 10 must have been then, i just remember snow in the second half. Strange winter, fantastic cold spells in late November and early March but in Winter a kind of numb coolness. I recall it being most interesting because of a complete lack of mild spells and 'easterly topplers'.

Was 2010 not pretty cold in its latter half? Additionally the latter half of 2006 was probably colder than 2005.

No, the last dozen operationals.

Not sure if people have missed this but for Leeds because its inland the GFS is suggesting that we could go 10 days with no precipitation (even then we are relying on a low resolution low)..

I believe i am, GFS now takes us to 10 days. Indeed, it will be amazing to see just how quickly we can go from soaked fields to hard, cracked ones (probably won't with frost). Meanwhile its 8C and sunny here, quite nice.