Bullseye
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Bullseye replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not sure they already backing down for February when it states likely increased chance of North or Easterly winds and also greater chance of colder conditions compared to mild (which would normally be more likely for UK, more so these days). Seasonal models surely can't be wrong at one month lead time, as many of them including GLOSEA and ECM seasonal have blocking for month of Feb (and March). If this was was 3-months I would say low chance but at 1-month out has to be some sort of confidence for colder weather. -
Many thanks for this, found that very interesting. Considering the recent winters in UK especially with warming world, I think this shows Glasgow actually has done fairly well - Jan/Feb 2015 was eye opener for me and also shows that 2020/21 winter really was something! Fingers firmly crossed for some promising wintery scenes next week for us lot . Some of the runs this morning had Scotland under 850hpa temps of around -11/-12, could be really low overnight temperatures especially further north. This is also why I don't agree with some on MOD thread saying this is fairly normal "cold" spell.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What was interesting though is today was the first long range update from MO that now has different wording to previous few days (which was more or less the same wording). For them to change long range wording must be due to them having confidence or better idea of that timeframe. Question I would ask, IF EC and GFS are correct regarding change going from 12z runs then what has caused the sudden change because it certainly can't be background signals or any new data with regards to strat warming/large temp increase. Would also mean the rather consistent EC 46 of past week would have missed this too but again this is only IF EC/GFS continue to trend away from sufficient blocking. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-11 uppers not far off now at 111h, GFS and Icon on same wavelength with those uppers. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-8 already into SE England by 9pm Sat night on this run -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Eyes on that cluster of near 0 zonal winds for around two weeks time especially when compared to only 48 hours ago. Looks to also be some momentum on further blocking into final week of month leading into February - would further support seasonal models thinking last few months. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO splits the PV while GFS keeps it intact at same timeframe. -
Life is good in the big house tonight although some disagreements on Kent snow totals and mention of Feb 2021 - cracking month for snow up here along with Jan 2021 but won't mention that to them Should see us lot up here get a well needed break from wind and rain, some potentially low max temps I would imagine although likely dry and frosty - maybe foggy too. Don't mind that me. Obviously this is based on ECM run but backed up by MO daily updates.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EC 46 from tonight is now running colder for W.Europe including UK week covering 15th - 22nd Jan, this is compared to last night's update. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dude stop moving the goal posts here, it has been shown by @That ECM that high dosen't sink south as you claimed. Tonight's ECM 12z, for me, is well inline with what MO has been running with over last few days - UK high which could lead to severe frosts, no better example than that from latest ECM. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Bullseye replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello, would you be able to link latest JMA for JFM? Many thanks -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Bullseye replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, here we are at day 10 on GFS 18z and this definitely ain't flat, with -8 uppers over Scotland and into N.England. Once again people are jumping to conclusions too quickly before letting run unfold. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Bullseye replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On top of this looks like the EPS (15-day) is run at higher resolution compared to EC 46 Confirmed by @bluearmy -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Bullseye replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm sure the tweet you had linked from Raleigh Wx is latest EPS ensembles covering 15 days from 12z (tonight) while tweet posted by Simon (EC 46) is based on 0z data from this morning - well I think it is anyway, don't worry confusion is also happening on world of Twitter too -
Only 25% members showing a reversal compared to almost 80% only 24 hours prior!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Bullseye replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is based on just now, on the post/extract from Lorenzo it mentions the following: The same is true for the NAO: if a negative NAO is present at the time of the SSW. The SSW, at the moment, isn't expected to happen until around 6th-9th January based on EPS, GFS and GEM (if it does occur) so we unable to say at the time of SSW what the NAO and/or NAM phase will be unless of course we believe the GFS at 372hrs! -
If a SSW wasn't to materialise and zonal winds remain weak/very weak (which I would say looks odds on) but not dropping into negative values - does the following tweet feel accurate, meaning that SSW isn't an absolute must if zonal winds do remain weak but SSW isn't triggered?
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Bullseye replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not to keep this off topic but this is something I came across back in Spring - ascending solar phase increases the chance of -NAO compared with any other phase including solar minimum. E-QBO combined with ascending solar gives greater chance of -NAO/AO although I'd imagine more factors at play to get this outcome.