Bullseye

Described on Twitter as the worst case scenario this eruption. Fissure around 3km long from first reports though may change when better understanding and more information comes in. Also noted was lava is rapid and spreading in all directions - power plant and Blue Lagoon nearby. Latest update has this now down as 3.5km long.

Looking at 30 mildest Septembers for UK, this unfortunately is not true (http://starlingsroost.ddns.net). Good few years listed in top 30, fall under as good or very good winter - 2000, 1941, 2009 or 1890 for example. If you had said a mild September gives a slight increase to a mild winter then I would agree with you, as bigger percentage of top 30 mild September resulted in mild winter compared to cold winters.

With US being in milder air unfortunately doesn't always mean Europe falls under cold regime but that said I think we got to remember that El Nino tend to be back loaded winters so what we are seeing just now shouldn't come as huge suprise. January potentially looking very interesting, as ECM 46 now favouring a colder January from around second week onwards. Got to remember the seasonal models where also indicating potential for colder weather in January and more so February. Very positive to see ECM dropping the zonal wind speeds even now at short range we are seeing winds dropping further (fantastic daily updates from @Andy8472 recently). EC 46 from tonights update has very weak zonal winds, with around 20% going for SSW between last few days of December and into New Year, good to see this isn't getting pushed back. Would it be fair to say this gives the EC 46 a big test?

Glosea updated covering JFM - not sure if already posted. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/232/ Cheers

Yip, only one way... and that is three days later the UK is still under cold air with very cold air still present over Scandinavia, who are having some of their coldest weather since 2010. Based on this evening's run, Atlantic influence is no where to be seen for going out to near first 10 days of December - many expected first half of December to be Atlantic driven. AO forecast to drop further going into December, zonal winds below average with hints of warming over Canada. As noted by @Big Gally, warmer air making inroads looking to be pushed back again going by tonight's EC - makes a nice change. All is looking very promising for start of meteorological winter @Big Gally

Oh, that is interesting indeed! Only few days ago zonal wind wasn't expected to drop to weaker than normal until last week of December.

Noted over on americanwx, is that today's ECM run thankfully dosen't follow on from yesterday's run in backing off further with the weak 10mb mean wind speed.

Tbf I don't think any of the seasonal models has November to be anything other than stormy/Atlantic driven. Understandably though ECM seems to have quite the change relating to end of Nov/start of Dec 10mb zonal wind - big difference compared to only 48 hours, what has caused such the change? Interesting to see if just a wobble or now a trend, something to monitor next couple of days. Edit: take that back - GLOSEA has this for November

MO vs ECM standoff, much prefer GLOSEA opinion on first half of winter . Did the latest JMA also get added today, I feel JMA has done quite well with winter period over past couple of years.

JMA updated for this month with regards to NDJ El Nino status has dropped from value of +2.25 from August run to value of +2.05 from September run covering same period (NDJ). Not the only model to drop from certain super Nino to now bordering on strong end El Nino. Will next month drop/cool further and take us into winter period with strong Nino? What looked certain to be a super Nino, may now be (no pun intended) on cold feet.

Noted over on American weather forum. NAO has moved to slightly positive covering December on latest ECM September run. November (neutral) and January (negative) see no changes. February has gone more negative and March also negative NAO https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=6994106

Thanks very much for sharing this. That sounds very promising if one is after a cold winter. Will need to bookmark that website for coming months. Thanks again

I think this is a very good point to make, as studies also show that the EQBO combined with a either Solar min or Solar max tends to show greatest risk of early strat warming. We know for sure that we have EQBO for this winter and that leaves the question if this year would fall into the solar "max" category - solar max provides us with greatest chance of negative NAO

Following on from the recent ECMWF DJF forecast, the follow up shows the strat during December - February running slightly weaker than average.

With regards to the month to month v 3-month average at the current timeframe, this I found to be somewhat interesting from Eric Webb

Also GFS 18z looks interesting, somewhat of shift back north - I think Someone has noted MO fax chart also consistent any remaining further north

I may be reading it wrong but unfortunately looks like even UKMO 12z is now taking it way south compared to this morning and more inline with ECM. Good news is this weekend looks promising (at the moment).

Very interesting and fingers crossed here! That said looks at odds with the latest ECM 6z run going by comments in the big house. Should hopefully get clearer picture one way or another come this afternoon's 12z runs.

Just on the MJO for those who may be interested, Eric Webb summarised this via this twitter thread with somewhat of an answer on this question posed by NWS.

Happy new year when it comes ladies and gents, all the very best for 2023! Happy to report snow is now settling on pavements, cars and grass just the final boss (the roads) to be tackled now.

Latest ARPEGE run is much more promising for yourself. Just need to wait and see come tomorrow morning rush hour. Fingers That said going by current radar even the ever reliable ARPEGE is looking nudge too north with this front.

Definitely thinking you are right here, using the current ICON run this is more or less the same as radar, which is the same band which starts to turn to snow when it hits land. How much snow and where is a different question

Not sure what you are talking about there ...

Not all is lost for you! Latest ARPEGE pushes some towards yourself during Friday morning/early afternoon. I'm rooting for ICON run, your rooting for ARPEGE, I know what one I'd rather trust Scrap that, we are both rooting for UKV per @lorenzo post

Not sure how reliable ICON is for precipitation but does show something for large part of Scotland on Friday. More of a nudge south meaning snow further south into central belt and down towards Ayr. Tracks further east too bringing Perth/Fife into firing line towards lunchtime Friday. North of central belt looks to be the place on this run. ARPEGE looking good too, pushes the front further east also.