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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    So glad Holyhead was virtually underneath the mass of storms, I was worried you wouldn't see anything but glad you enjoyed yourself! We are already at 20,000 lightning strikes for today and it's not even 8am yet!
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    It's funny because I'll stay up for storms that won't even come near me, I just love watching the radar for hours on end!
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    I've never travelled to a location to watch a storm so I'm no expert but you could probably see lightning from Holyhead right now.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Yeah it'll probably take 30-45 minutes for the storm to reach Holyhead and by then if it all weakens I'd be amazed! Even then it'll probably begin to back build too, I can see this storm lasting several hours now given the conditions that it's in.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Over the Irish Sea definitely building in size, lightning activity and most active furthest east, definitely a multi-cell I'd say.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Various sferics appearing near to storms but not close, must be anvil crawlers poss?
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Why are we seeing fake strikes on the lightning map, getting annoying:(
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Agreed but haven't seen anything, I've got my eyes peeled!
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    ESTOFEX: 20th July 2016 ... Norhern England, Scotland ... In conjunction with the passage of a pronounced cold front, widespread thunderstorm activity is forecast over the region already in the morning hours. Forecast soundings point to the threat of excessive rainfall with skinny CAPE profiles and saturated troposphere. Despite the presence of DLS above 15 m/s and a potential for well organised DMC, large hail threat does not seem to be as pronounced as the threat of heavy rainfall due to the lack of high CAPE values and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Nevertheless, especially over the southern half of Lvl 1, isolated large hail event may occur with stronger updrafts.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    By no means a bust, in my opinion looks ever more interesting for later tonight/tomorrow morning... Let me explain why. More aimed at what's approaching from Bay of Biscay/English Channel, let's look at the area of precipitation. What we can see is that, the small AcCas showers that have formed over South Wales as a result of the air having a higher effective precipitable water right? The location of storms over the Bay of Biscay/English Channel is associated with the trough and is moving very slowly. Looking at the Surface Pressure Charts we can see the trough is moving through slower than expected. This is promising as the conditions therefore look to be better in place for better storm development over North Devon/South Wales. The storms out in the Bay of Biscay are actually associated with a different area of instability as we see here... In the meantime I expect the storms to decay and become weaker in nature but by 3am, the blue line is where I expect storms to fire up quite significantly as it comes into contact with High Most Unstable CAPE, 40kts of DLS, 200m^2s^2 of SRH and High Effective Precipitable Water, which will all come into contact with the trough (Being the trigger) over the next few hours. Therefore the place to watch within the next 3-4 hours is North Devon/South Wales. Again I am only developing my storm knowledge and this is only an opinion. Being 17 years old this is not easy to take in, so don't take my opinion as definite. If any of you more experienced can direct me where I have gone wrong/correct me it will be much appreciated! Thanks all.
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm sure that's what every bunch of storms turns into right?;)... Oh I wish!
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Can anyone even believe a Lifted Index of -12 over Liverpool area this evening! According to GFS 18z! A definite SE shift of precipitation on the GFS 18z charts. More of South Wales and SW England covered by precipitation and Midlands getting smashed.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    For any of you that didn't see, ConvectiveWeather edited their forecast for tonight! UPDATE 21:42 UTC MDT over Wales/NW England nudged further S, and marginally shrunk in eastern extent. MDT also added over NW Scotland for an increase in coverage likely through the early hours. MDT also shrunk in NE extent over NW Ireland. Overall, similar expectations remain as to those highlighted in the original forecast below, with perhaps some subtle shifts to the SE, and perhaps a slightly slower onset of more widespread thunderstorm activity later tonight. Shortwave trough is likely to engage with instability axis as it crosses NW Ireland / Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an environment with Tds in the high teens Celsius, yielding 1,000-2,000 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to erupt late afternoon through the evening hours, drifting to the N/NE. Given high CAPE, 30-40kts DLS and backed surface winds, any discrete storms may become supercells, at least for a time, with an associated risk of hail to 3.5cm in diameter, strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado - SVR issued to cover all three threats. Some parts of C and W Scotland may require an upgrade to MDT for activity expected this evening/tonight - trends will be monitored. Elsewhere, falling heights in advance of the upper trough will lead to destabilisation during late Tuesday evening and through early hours of Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm development occurring during the evening hours, these moving NE-wards through the night while expanding in coverage - MDT issued where risk of thunderstorms is considered higher, but as is often the case in such situations, this area may need to be modified in placement/size as convective trends become more clear nearer the event. Given nocturnal cooling will have occurred to a certain extent before any significant convection develops, most cells will be elevated but still pose a risk of local flash flooding from heavy downpours and elements of backbuilding, and also a hail threat - SVR then issued to cover the greatest risk of flooding / large hail. Significant CAPE and steep lapse rates suggests lightning could be quite prolific in places.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Us Westerners (West Wales, West Midlands, SW England), our best bet is this area approaching from the SW and hopefully it forms cells to it's east from their outflow if I'm right?
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Again the thundery looking sky is upon me too! I have an amazing sight out to my West!
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    William that's uncalled for, the only reason people may go against your view is because it can mislead people, it's not just been your recent opinion. No one is having a go at you.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Use the Netweather Radar includes 5 min updates and better in my opinion!
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Maybe a little behind on that? Possibly could see a breakdown beginning a little further south possibly?
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Let's just appreciate the quality/accuracy of the Netwx SR Precipitation Charts!
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Just talking about the GFS 12z, since when have we ever seen an LI of -11!? With CAPE hitting almost 3000J/Kg! On another hand as said previously, may even see a storm or two over North Devon tonight poss.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    Yeah exactly, reminds me of a similar day a couple of years back high CAPE Projections yet no storms, without a trigger no storms.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    CAPE projections increasing on every run, as I've noticed for my area! Precipitation looks to cover West Midlands as well!
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    And my forecast right here... Moderate Risk of Thunderstorms! (Poss Severe)
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    What we must recognise is that these storms over Spain were not forecast by ESTOFEX, anything could happen!
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Hey man, I'm in a similar situation as you and being on this forum for 4 years it's being an amazing experience to be part of this forum and have learnt very much! I hope we see an MCS clatter the whole west of England hehe!
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