Ben Sainsbury

Now this looks very tasty for Tuesday night into Wednesday!

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

What's positive to note for us is the highest instability is furthest east of this region. And from previous experiences the furthest east of any ppn (MCS) are the most electrified too.

Yet another prediction from myself too, I would love to see a full scale MCS but whether this will be the case I'm not sure. Deep Layer Shear doesn't look anything amazing but is still decent, CAPE values I believe are quite high, tho I don't have access to ML Cape charts. Also SRH looks well over 300m^2s^2, so I believe any MCS or storm that may form could possibly have supercellular characteristics which large hail being a risk too. If an MCS does form, I believe again over Exeter/Cornwall, through Bristol Channel, East Wales, but will decay into thundery rain as it moves north as I don't believe that the MCS can be sustained. I may be wrong as I am very amateur! If no MCS forms, without a doubt, strong thunderstorms are possible, poss 1 or 2 supercells with frequent lightning and large hail. This isn't to over hype anyone or neccesarily a proper predictions I'm just basing what I have just said by the facts of the models.

800-900J/kg or so...

Definite eastward shift on the current run, we see the warmth move through quicker during Wednesday, the mass of thunderstorms during tuesday night clipping more SW England and West Wales.

It's 5:30, we have 2 more hours+ of dirnual heating warm moist air...

Yeah that's something I agree with about 4/5pm, especially judging by Netwx SR precip charts. My opinion feels kent might catch an isolated storm for my favoured location.

Seems like a funnel to me too, various other examples online!

Thunderstorm Forecast for 2nd July 2016: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms! (Yellow Box Valid as long as Storms do Form!) Best CAPE and DLS Overlap yet again!

I like knowing we have similar forecasts! I just find it useful when looking for storm potential myself too! I thinking myself as a beginner, creating forecasts gives me a better understanding of storms and just learning from mistakes makes the experience of storms so much better!

Thunderstorm Forecast for 1st July 2016: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms! (Slight Risk where CAPE and DLS overrun and possible convergence zone!) Similar to ConvectiveWeather, just no further south than M4, as very shallow CAPE Amounts. (Must note incredible 80kts of DLS here!)

Thunderstorm Forecast for 29th June 2016: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms! Fairly low risk as a result of low CAPE, though could see isolated stronger cell across England/Scotland border or over Peak District. Possible funnel cloud here too.

Thunderstorm Forecast: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms for 28th June 2016! (Poss upgrade in SW if storms initiate!)

If you didn't see my post from earlier this is exactly what I was saying, decent CAPE, 300 SRH, 60kts of DLS, I'm just not sure!

Oh I see that's how it works, sorry now I understand!

But does that mean in this situation 60kts of DLS and 350m^2s^2 of SRH have no affect then in the SW? Because from what I know Strong DLS and Small CAPE can still produce Strong Storms? I do understand with high PWAT, lightning is less likely? Just trying to learn too!

Possibly, but very unlikely to happen, there's probably something that I'm missing but not sure what, let's see what ESTOFEX, ConvectiveWeather and other forecasters here say later!

Let me explain, late Tomorrow across the Far SW, there looks be 200-300 J/Kg of CAPE, over run by 60kts of DLS, along with strong SRH, with the trigger being the low pressure system, yet no models suggesting any storm developments, and I lack professional storm knowledge. But it's just my opinion. Thus Significant Tornado Parameter is high too. (The Map below shows current projections in my amateur opinion. Green = Marginal Risk, Grey = Potentially Severe, yet very marginal) I'll update later on my Twitter and here.

Definitely a very complex setup tomorrow in my eyes, got my eye over far SW late tomorrow, for some embedded organised storms. Interesting...

Looking fantastic, couldn't get any pictures, but heavy torrential rain followed by a flash of lightning!

Check that out!

Lovely convection here!

For those that don't follow me a twitter, I created a storm forecast an hour ago.

Have a feeling an MCS is brewing...