Ben Sainsbury

Clear here, cloudier to the south, but lots of cumulus beginning to pop up now!

Some Sunny Spells have now appeared to the SE of me, along with some Ac Cas around!

Certainly a lot of cloud around as said by others, however Sat24 shows this clearly fairly soon this morning so hopefully things shall spark off!

ConvectiveWeather have their forecast out! Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 27 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 28 May 2016 ISSUED 21:49 UTC Thu 26 May 2016 ISSUED BY: Chris An area of humid, unstable air will drift in from the south across southern parts of Britain and Ireland between Thursday evening and through Friday. This combined with daytime heating on Friday afternoon will produce CAPE values of 500-800j/kg. The highest CAPE is expected across S/Cen England; into Wiltshire / the Salisbury plain, where we will monitor the potential for an upgrade to SLGT. Moisture may be a limiting factor with some computer models only developing isolated convection. However given the CAPE available even these isolated storms could produce a lot of lightning and some locally heavy downpours. Bulk shear remains relatively weak, so while storms will be slow moving, updrafts will be generally of the pulse variety.

Level 1 it's a miracle! Valid: Fri 27 May 2016 06:00 to Sat 28 May 2016 06:00 UTC A level 1 was issued for SW UK mainly for excessive rain and isolated large hail. Somewhat weaker CAPE and DLS still support at least temporarily organized multicells during the forecast. Large hail and strong to severe wind gusts will be possible and an isolated tornado event can't be ruled out, especially during the late afternoon/evening hours, when LCLs drop to 800 m or less. Widespread activity could support a few cold pool driven line-ups with a more concentrated severe wind gust risk, but this will be heavily dictated by the mesoscale. Finally, slow storm motions and clustering storms increase the excessive rainfall risk at least on the local scale. This is especially true over S-UK. During the night, a slow weakening trend is anticipated, but troposphere remains still supportive for scattered thunderstorms with isolated large hail and excessive rain.

A few lighter showers breaking out over Southern England right now, got my eye on it!

Is it often to find any MCS where the MCS itself, only have a couple of strikes from it, but were still getting the occasional strikes from this large mass of rain?

We have seen a few lightning strikes from it so far!

Genius!

Does anyone know of any free websites to access the NMM Model?

Yeah I'm being too vague, purely based on CAPE Projections, more in depth charts coming tomorrow so should be better to examine.

Eyes for Friday and Saturday, looking real good!

Gonna get some pictures storm has literally BLOWN up!

Wait lightning to my North West, ain't got time for this I'm revising... Are showers moving in a different direction to earlier?

Certainly some nice cumuls congestus, all in a line towards my SW.

Certainly a nice looking Cb to my North, but isn't coming anywhere near me.

Plenty of showers along the M4 oh wait...

As radar has suggested storms likely to hit the far SE, brilliant to see a moderate! Certainly seems to be back building the channel get some photos lads!

Once storms past me always seem to intensify....

Possible Squall Line developing South of Swindon.

Never even saw much if any potential over Wales, shows how it hard it is to forecast really.

My Take on Today... (Still Learning Of Course!) Well currently we've already seen a few heavy showers to form along the South Coast, without doubt a positive sign. As we go through the day, I expect temperatures to reach 20'c along Southern Areas as long as cloud doesn't inhibit this. Unfortunately we see Dewpoints a little down on yesterday only reaching 10-11'c. Nevertheless we still see 500J/kg of CAPE, highest around the Bournemouth Area. Decent Vertical Shear is evident along the South Coast which could enhance updrafts along with improved Lapse Rates. Storm Relative Helicity is minimal today, with a lack of convergence areas too. However where we see some sea breeze convergence, this will trigger a few storms. Nevertheless heavy showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible today along Southern Coastal Areas, with a reduced risk of lightning and severity of storms. Main Risk are Small Hail as a result of updrafts and Torrential Rain.

Watch it;)

Never want to boast, but for a beginner (noob) experimental forecaster like myself this was a well made forecast!

Got a feeling William is on the hunt for it!