Ben Sainsbury

Thunder would be perfect right now, dark torrential rain beautiful! Perfect for a funnel cloud opportunity too currently; however flooding seems an issue!

Quite incredible seeing dewpoints up to 15-16'c in places. If people don't mind me asking what effects do dewpoints have on thunderstorms?

One I do vividly remember was a Spanish Plume event about 4-5 years ago, I was camping in Barnstaple and the sheer amount of thunder and lightning was incredible! All night we were treated. Yet had no mobile data therefore could not looking at the radar etc. Nevertheless great memories being the 11 year old enthusias at the time aha.

Being under the heaviest rain of the rain band (Bristol), the sky looking very dark, menacing, come on thunderrr!

My area of interest right now is once the main band heads through we see these developing storms in France, we will only see this affect us as long as they are elevated.

I'm wondered this rain band before the showers will inhibit any further activity...

You can have access to some NetWX Models... Including Temperature, Precipitation, Wind Gusts, Wind Direction, 500-1000hpa Thickness too.

On top of what Matt said, this is where we could see developments begin as we see breaks into the cloud ahead of this band?

Again 20'c over a few areas already along the Western areas and parts of Central areas, got a feeling if the sun breaks, this could be another day of underestimated temperatures. Dewpoints looking decent too touching 13-14'c in parts of the SE.

The BBC said; "By the afternoon, the rain will turn heavier with the odd rumble of thunder possible, particularly over the higher ground" I'm not sure how this works? Considered orographic lifting, but the SW isn't exactly know for it's "huge mountains" even though there are a few larger hills?

Quite a dramatic change in 1 hour hmm...

These towers beginning to gather shapes of showers now. If that makes sense...

Pictures that I am taking on my phone, don't give a clear representation on how quickly these towers are going up! (And how large!) Should expect to see some precipitation in the form of showers on the next update or two.

24'c here, 2'c above what was forecasted! Nice cumulus up to my NW!

22'c already!

What websites have reported lightning strikes?

Definitely a storm developing here... Rest behind could ignite at any time! (Showers behind where most instability is)

What I have my eye on... GFS and WRF beginning to hint something in the next hour or two so?

If I was to expect any storms to form overnight, I expect them to form on the North Coast of France and move NNW'wards. Almost experimental!

From what I can see according to current details (which is likely to change), the most severe storms look to be across NW Wales into NW England; as mentioned before the best instability is situated here, along with decent SRH which will aid the development of storms, the dewpoints looking more than favourable between 13-15'c. Vertical Shear looks decent to support the developed thunderstorms. In terms of a trigger along with surface temps of 20+'c dirnual heating should be no problem, this included with a front out to the west. And plenty of avaliable moisture is a neccessary which is avaliable. Therefore all the ingredients are there at this moment in time, we shall see!

Oh I am too ambitious! Hehe... The Bristol Shield that is!

With GFS 12z rolling out, definitely seeing some well-developed surface based storms across South/West Midlands, Wales and NW England over the coming days. Initially we should see a couple of weakly electrified elevated storms across the SW Coast later tomorrow spreading into West Wales. From experience elevated storms often die down as they move further inland. We love to see a home-grown MCS!

Almost getting too late from the shower that is just passing over me now, moderately heavy rain, although grown in size too. Too late now, too slow moving...

Possibly I'm being a little optimistic, but I have my eye on this shower, where as it increasing moves towards an area of clearer sky and where most instability is across CS England, it may turn convective. Most likely won't happen just keeping an eye out as think it's appeared too far west, to enter to an areas of instability we shall see.

True but this is all dependant on cloud cover and let's think what time storms started brewing yesterday. Possibly 2-9pm? So that's the time period which is most looking forward to today.