Ben Sainsbury

Did not see this coming! To my East!

I have a quality little cell building right over me! No precipitation yet, but got it all on a timelapse, south coast looking insane right now!

Just purchased Netweather Extra Radar, can't deal with waiting 15 minutes for radar updates aha!

SW.

Judging by Sat24; we can see cumulus growing over central areas, as these move SW I expect these to grow into some storms!

Plenty of huge towering cumulus moving SW here, all good signs!

Just a matter of time for heat to build and the showers to set off, got a few precip in far south, will help set off these showers! According to some on external websites, the first cell is expected to form in Exeter as a result of dirnual heating and convergence!

Not really much going on here, but feeling very warm, bright and barely a cloud in the sky!

What's my take on things? Well... Once the weather system moves through, we'll see a fairly clear day which will lead to dirnual heating with temperatures peaking 23'c, and dewpoints between 11-14'c. Convergence zone for me really sits over the South Coast from Salisbury to Wells. CAPE up to 800J/Kg, SBCape amounts looking high. Decent Lapse Rates SRH values up to 150, along the South Coast Low LCL's, chance of Funnel Clouds Plenty of Avaliable Moisture, the further SW you go.

Estofex Forecast, no text on UK. ConvectiveWeather Forecast: Remnant convection will likely be ongoing across S / SW England first thing on Thursday morning, this clearing westwards to give sufficient insolation to develop isolated showers, more especially late afternoon into the early evening where low-level convergence (onshore flow plus topographical forcing) aids development. Forecast profiles suggest drying and warming aloft from the east through the day, therefore limiting depth of convection and resulting with the deepest instability becoming increasingly confined to the far SW. Lapse rates are once again fairly poor, despite high CAPE values forecast given relatively high dewpoints, and hence lightning will be fairly isolated (generally sub-SLGT criteria) with the main threat being local flash flooding from slow-moving heavy downpours in a high PWAT environment (high 20s mm). The strongest cells may perhaps produce hail up to 1.0cm in diameter, while relatively low LCLs and low-level convergence could once again produce a couple of funnels / weak tornadoes. Isolated elevated convection may affect parts of SE England on Thursday night.

This new convection looks like a mini squall line!

Lightning east of Brighton oooh!

Those lightning strikes in channel, could be anvil crawlerssss?

Nothings be ruined yet?

Looks like a developing MCS to my eye!;)

Might give my experimental storm forecast a go for tomorrow hehe...

Sky is looking considerably brighter in South Bristol, doom and gloom over your way unfortunately!

Seems to be a very powerful storm nr Oxford, any lightning strikes I cannot see!

I actually think it's a positive sign how showers are quite potent without thunder, however instability is far from its max at this moment in time, and we should expect sun to break further so is looking up!

But that's what I mean, if cloud is going to break anywhere, it is mostly likely to be where you are rather than the system moving west across England.

This is the area I see, having the greatest potential for showers to form within the next hour or two as already mentioned. This is where cloud levels seem to be thinnest too according to Sat24. (Possibly along South Coast too!)

Convergence does seem to be one of the possible deciding factors today, and again Funnel Cloud parameters seem reasonable, if the sun breaks could be a good day!

I don't know if it's just me, but I can certainly see the sky clearing later briefly. Certainly according to GFS, seems to be higher CAPE around and therefore more instability, but we shall see.

Was going to say convinced it wasn't anaprop!

I'm no expert in funnel clouds, scud etc, but can someone explain to me what this is? Occurred on SE of storm on back edge.