Ben Sainsbury

Haven't heard a thing yet!

You must be joking!

I'm sorry to say but they are incorrect as no precipitation anywhere near.

No worries, always good for a more experienced eye!

Not neccessarily so, because the trough itself is lower pressure and after the passage of the trough the air is forced upwards. Not quite sure how it works I'm still learning too.

For anyone that isn't too sure the trough is currently sat in the approx position below. Expect developments either side of this as it moves eastwards.

Definitely sparking off as result of nocturnal cooling and trough moving eastwards.

ESTOFEX Forecast: (No Text About UK)

We almost have an outflow situation in the Bristol Channel! (Backbuilding) I'm not quite sure how to describe it!

Some precipitation near me, looks like something is developing to my SW tho. Some quite rapid developments to my west!

That's right and currently where the showers exist is where the trough is. Hopefully the trough will edge further in time to be in place with the heat and convergence zones.

Plenty of towering cumulus right now, sun been blocked out!

Only been put up 6 months ago hehe;), anyway some evidence of possible showers developing to our South across CS England along a convergence line.

Always a nice thing to see when your out chilling the garden! Come on instability!

When combining the current Sea Pressure Charts and Convergence Zone, I have drew on the radar where these currently exist. Great correlation currently. (Black = Trough, Green = Convergence)

And I accept that this is where my confusion comes into place. But then again this will be something that will always happen, as everyone has different perspectives on a forecast etc. Apologies.

That is exactly what some of the models are hinting at too. For Example: NetWx Model

It's certainly not fair to say names, but in regards to differences in todays and tomorrows risk there isn't much to say. Defined convergence areas, high areas of instability, a trough sat to the west of the UK. Only difference I see is instability sat over more Central areas.

I don't understand this community about how yesterday storms were very few and far between and yet everyone was saying "Oh tomorrow looks to be a lot better" and again today we see a lot of storm forecasts indicative of isolated storms and again people say, "Oh tomorrow showers seem to be more widespread". But to me it's annoying where people will say that the following day will be better for storms without valid evidence, almost like false hope, a recurring theme to me. Personally I don't see anything better about tomorrow whatsoever, setup pretty similar to today.

Very well predicted by the Netwx model, should expect to see showers form east of this current shower.

We have kick off nr Yeovil! Definitely a loaded gun sorta cell. 5 minutes from nothing to lightning!

How come we are already receiving UV Levels of 8, surely this is unusual for this time of year as normally these are often rare and will only occur in late June?

More cumulus bubbling up here to my South, and a brief second of the sun being blocked out!

That is exactly what I was pointing at! Let's see what happens!

However we saw showers develop over NW England as a result of strong dirnual heating and a convergence zone. For us Southerners, all this CAPE has built up throughout the day, the convergence zone is expected to form about 6,7,8pm. If I'm right theres a line of cumulus stretching from Tiverton to Bournemouth, this could spark off possibly over Salisbury?