Ben Sainsbury

Almost getting too late from the shower that is just passing over me now, moderately heavy rain, although grown in size too. Too late now, too slow moving...

Possibly I'm being a little optimistic, but I have my eye on this shower, where as it increasing moves towards an area of clearer sky and where most instability is across CS England, it may turn convective. Most likely won't happen just keeping an eye out as think it's appeared too far west, to enter to an areas of instability we shall see.

True but this is all dependant on cloud cover and let's think what time storms started brewing yesterday. Possibly 2-9pm? So that's the time period which is most looking forward to today.

Nevertheless it is promising to see small developments at this point as temperatures having not reached maximum and we should hope to see more sunshine this afternoon, that's when things should kick off!

This is where I expect developments to be within the course of the day. Already signs of this NW of Canterbury! However most organised showers in SE.

In regards to Cloud Cover today, hopefully as the low pressure pushes NE'wards, we can hopefully see a clear slot before the next band of showers move in (in the channel), as indicated by the thinning of the cloud along the northern/eastern flank of the low pressure.

For those who are intrigued about the storm forecasts tomorrow here is mine: Forecast: 9am – 6pm We have a low pressure system running through the channel, whilst an occluded front passing SE’wards across the country, originally the risk exists further SW you are, but as we reach mid-afternoon this is where the greatest potential exists, most likely across CS and SE England, up into East Anglia. With the prospect of a cloudy day, temps of 12-13 at best, we are looking at 300-400 J/Kg of CAPE, along with fairly steep lapse rates. Low Level Wind Shear looks to be highest over SE England, along with Deep Layer Shear at around 20kts. This could see storms becoming organised at times. SRH looks to sit around 100-150m^2s^-2.Therefore there is the chance of the odd funnel cloud, most especially across SE areas. But main risks seem to be Lightning and Strong Wind Gusts; along with intense rainfall as a result of storms merging into longer spells of rain. (My Picture:) ESTOFEX: ConvectiveWeather: Tony Gilbert UKWeatherWorld: Forecast: 9am – 6pm Slight Risk of Thundery Showers with Risk of FC/ Weak TN Southern UK 08z-19z Some potential for an interesting day ahead Long wave upper trough continues to influence UK. Upper jet stream remains south of the UK. Slack low pressure traverses southern UK from SW to NE. Wrapped occlusion expected to develop rain and showers. Some of which could turn thundery. Whilst GFS and WRF develops workable CAPE, some uncertainties regarding instability due to potential for heavy cloud cover. This issue will be the deciding factor for convection. The most interesting feature looks to be conducive convergence with very low LCL. This combination has been mostly missing for the past few outlooks. Pre formed horizontal vorticity is better pulled into updrafts when cloud bases are low. It is therefore quite possible that southern regions could see a number of FC/ weak tornadoes. This would be better addressed in the morning.

The Storm over Worcester, seems to be a very long-lived potent storm, anyone got any details of anything out of the ordinary?

This you could say is extremely experimental, as I have no experience just wanted to give this a go for tomorrow! Forecast: 15/04/2016: 9am – 6pm We have a low pressure system running through the channel, whilst an occluded front passing SE’wards across the country, originally the risk exists further SW you are, but as we reach mid-afternoon this is where the greatest potential exists, most likely across CS and SE England, up into East Anglia. With the prospect of a cloudy day, temps of 12-13 at best, we are looking at 300-400 J/Kg of CAPE, along with fairly steep lapse rates. Low Level Wind Shear looks to be highest over SE England, along with Deep Layer Shear at around 20kts. This could see storms becoming organised at times. SRH looks to sit around 100-150m^2s^-2.Therefore there is the chance of the odd funnel cloud, most especially across SE areas. But main risks seem to be Lightning and Strong Wind Gusts; along with intense rainfall as a result of storms merging into longer spells of rain.

What features did it have to warrant it being a MCS?

Agreed I am going to analyse all the charts too, and put up my own chart, thanks for the input, useful:)

Certainly not here, rain was moderately heavy.

Hope to see this build further cells as could be a good day for this region, into the West Midlands!

Who gave out the warning? I see the Met Office, what I find strange is that we've already had 2 days of similar conditions and they haven't issued a warning, maybe today they are more confident with this setup?

Aha brilliant! I always have something to complain about too! aha

Sounded better;) Link:

Reports of a Funnel nr Bristol Airport. From my area in Keynsham, grabbed two pictures of what either seems to be an inflow into the back of the storm, scud or a funnel cloud...

Can't wait to see this Brighton cell on the radar. The more you hope the more you get

Very Nice Cell by Peterborough! When you look for the smallest bit of hope...

The sky looks disappointingly stable this evening, no evidence of any showers let alone storms...:(

We have lift off! Definitely the formation of showers becoming evident especially across S Wales, SW England!

This Satellite really shows the development of these showers beginning to kick off! http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual

From what I can see based on GFS Charts, were looking at CAPE of 400-500J/Kg, along with increased temperatures today peaking at 15-16'c (higher further east) for most areas. This combined with the potential convergence zones out over North Devon. So how I see it; so the majority of storms I expect to form over BANES/Bath/Wiltshire into a line through to Oxford (Similar to Yesterday), and then for these storms to push NE'wards. These could become weakly electrified and most potent around 5-6pm. However I believe if storms do form over North Devon, these could be the more active of the storms (better structure etc.), whilst pushing Northwards into S Wales. Generally all showers originally forming in Cornwall and risk extending NE'wards throughout the day. All in all along with being similar to yesterday, I expect to see showers more widespread as a result of more diurnal heating today and temperatures peaking 16-17'c.

That is right, as long as the conditions are right for the funnel to touch down.

Brilliant William I am glad! Meanwhile this is a long range view of those beauties over North Devon!