[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Low pressure isn't more likely if you follow this:

Personally I meant more frontal systems rather than a mean for a certain amount of days. Or just frontal weather in general being forecasted then not making it at all as we get closer to the time. 
 

Basically my original statement was incorrect. Apologies. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

00z vs 06z for next Friday....more runs needed!!

It’s flipping between two scenarios both are evident in the ensembles with the low pressure one perhaps more likely. 
 

But this summer there has been attempts for the Atlantic to gain inroads only fall short near the end. Who knows though as the Jet looks to be getting a little more stronger with every passing week we could finally see the end of high pressure. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

ECM is once again, rinse and repeat.

It's getting later in Summer but I would not be surprised if we end up in some September heatwaves at this rate.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

ECM hot, turning hotter post D10.

Could be a very interesting period coming up once again.

[Summer 2022 Chat]

11 minutes ago, Chris Smith said:

How can such an energetic couple of days have such a limp breakdown? One might have expected something biblical after that hadean heat.

I mean it was dry heat so ya know dry, usually we get the humid type where as soon as the cold front comes it explodes. 

[Summer 2022 Chat]

Still 30c here, one more day of this and we would be on par with France.

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

Off the press!

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

ECM ends with a low off the coast of Portugal and high pressure from the Azores sweeping over us heading east..

As others have mentioned over the past 2 days, we really could see another chance

Edit: The control is almost heat dome part 2 but just keeps it off the coast  

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

35c here in Southend, not a single cloud or even high cloud in the sky. Beautiful day. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Local station says 29c

Wall to sunshine. Going to be a hot one. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

ECM likely underplaying maxima 

Broadly speaking the heat is yet to peak, yesterday was hot but next week is another level, the models except the GFS are firming up on unbearable week. 
 

Models a few days ago had the peak on Monday, with Tuesday being the decline. No we’re talking Wednesday or even Thursday. The hot weather is nice but at some point we have to call it quits. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

MOGREPS would still potentially bring something quite significant.

The slow build is worse in my opinion, it was going to be a scorcher on Sunday then done by Monday or Tuesday now we have to persist with this heat for even longer. Glad it’s not 40c but I do believe it is a matter of when not if for that to happen in the UK over the coming years. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Again, slower with the plume. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

MOGREPS updated. 2 clusters; One (including the control, dark blue line) suggests a short plume and the other something more prolonged. All runs show potential for extreme heat at some point around next weekend/early the following week.

Concerning that more go for the longer heat. 3 days of that and you’ll be breaking the record every day. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

The irony of your username juxtaposed next to this chart.

Wouldn't even reach the puddle phase just vaporised  

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

14:00

Torched.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

The max temp variable is actually the max of the preceding 6 hours (so probably at 6 pm in this case) - something that could do with being specified on these charts considering how often I’ve seen them misinterpreted.

Says something about the extremity of the airmass GFS is modelling that even as it’s on the way out on the Monday on this run, the noon temp is close to the record max here (33*C versus 34.3*C set in early Aug 1990). Or at least what would have been the record had it not been shattered the preceding day (this run has 39*C here in the Sunday… mind-blowing)!

Right, so its not a snapshot of the temp at current time.

I imagine that meto 2m charts are actually at that time?

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Is 40c at Midnight actually possible?

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

9am and high 30s 

 

In all seriousness that would insufferable.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

18z somehow ups the heat and brings them faster. However may be a more fleeting afair like the ECM.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Another hot one for wednesday on gfs18z !!

Scorcher!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Pretty intense lightning here, not much thunder tho. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Must admit these NH patterns keep presenting their selves (very decent ones for the date), you would normally say that at some point before mid March a potent cold spell is almost inevitable, but given recent years i will stop short of that, i will instead suggest that the actual model watching season will be interesting for the duration.

Agree with this, high pressure seems to consistently want to move north just the PV is running over the top. If we catch a break or some help from the other side of the pole we may get somewhere. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Trigger shortwave to save the day?

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Control is close to something decent here

OP is pretty bonkers FI. Either way, don't feel it will be a one and done ordeal, even if they end up being mostly topplers looks like it could be an almost repeating pattern.