Snowman.
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Posts posted by Snowman.
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Ideally, you want the trough to drop through Scandi then edge SW. Keeping SE of the UK.
Dropping straight North with that kind of intesity will create lows halting the cold flow which needs to be potent to get snow in March.
I would also suggest looking back at 2013 to see it evolve it's not as perfect as you may believe. It could take more than 1 attempt to get this, March 1st 2013 shows us in similar situation.
Decent block, looking to go NW.
Southerly draw over the UK as the high sinks SE, leaving us in a WB -NOA
FF a bit then we get the attempt 2. Which was successful as we all know. Trough droipping down near scandi etc.
I think worrying about these things will cause incredible stress, hanging your hopes on the latest set of OP runs will only lead to misery. Always a chance of a 2nd attempt.
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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:
Further SE yet again.
May not be a terrible thing. If we can get the high somewhere between Greenland and Iceland streching SE I think we'll be fine.
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:
Just to add, March 2013 was the coldest since 1892 (CET) , the SSW that year happened on January 7th, it wasnt until march 11th that it hit here (according to my work diary, i was working on Friday 8th, not Monday 11th).
I make that 63 days between the start of the SSW and it impacting on us. Somehow i cant see a Big Freeze like 2013 starting in April! but it does underline the fact that the effects of this SSW may well not be felt for some time.Jan 2013 saw a QTR of Im not mistaken. Feb 2013 also saw a good amount of blocking too. The vortex was basically out for most of that time, I’m unsure on what MJO was up to for March however
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3 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:
It’s blue pill or red pill!
Wow, proper Scandi with low heights south and everything.
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Relying on a trigger shortwave dropping down the North Sea with heights building over at D7+ to setup an easterly.
Yeah don’t feel like chasing that one. Nice to see however.
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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:What’s of interest to me is how cold we are, have been with fairly benign set ups…especially to recent years. It has got really cold, coldest Jan night for donkeys down here from a fairly nothing set up. And projected, there’s some punchy cold to come from the ‘useless’ northerly topplers. Not what ‘some’ profess
BFTP
This year has been frost heavy, no snow but definitely cold periods. While CET may say something different, its been some years since we've had dry cold snaps.
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Better pacific ridging has dragged the PV lobe further south giving us a better amplitude on our high here
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Impressive polar ridging on the Pacific side on the 6z. But I would trust someone who “communes” with the spirits more that the 6z when it comes to forecasting weather.
But could be a nice run we’ll see.
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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
UKMO 168
the chart has things going for it...
Low over Italy is a big positive. You’re only one decent bit of amplification away from a cold snap.
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Good ECM, a better cutback on that trough SW would bring some surprises. But it looks loaded at D10 for at least a brief interlude.
Could get a small 3 day cold snap for Jan/Early feb. Then perhaps something more sustained for Mid Feb-
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Can’t remember the last time I saw a beast of tPV like the 18z. Pretty impressive.
Also incredibly wet and the complete opposite of what we want!
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2 minutes ago, snowblind said:
I found that during the December cold spell it consistently forecast max temperatures to be 2 to 3 degrees above what they actually were. Seems to be the same this time as well. Not sure why, generally it's pretty good with temps but doesn't do well when it's cold.
They’re awful for extremes I find.
During the extreme heat of Summer they were under by a couple degrees here and in December over by a couple. Might be a coastal thing but I tend to just use the models available to me for a more accurate forecast.
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Lots blocked runs in the GEFS, hard to trust them how we even the zonal ones due to what’s happening up above. Either way if you’re after cold much like myself then we’re in a good position like 6.5. Lots of water to flow under the bridge but I’m optimistic about the 2nd week of Feb and onwards.
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Likening the EC D10 again. UKMO also looking attractive.
Hypothetically speaking if we’re to get a cold spell, it’s likely going to evolve from a UK high surging North as the PV relents and allows heights rises into the pole, the positioning of the high will be important on whether we get cold as we could end up in an unfavourable position very easily!
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EC looks primed and ready for lift off at D10. Heights increasing over Greenland and across the pole, large UK high with amplification coming and a trigger low by Iceland.
Shame it’s all day 10!-
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Some good chances for those in Midlands north next week, those who get rain instead of snow will have to hope for them Scandi height rises. Must say our chances while nowhere near concrete are looking healthy.
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:
looking at the strat GFS ensembles, it does have the hallmarks of just running out of steam before a technical SSW so slight odds against, unless a secondary warming comes round the back soon after.
Lows becoming slow, heights randomly appears across the poles.
Defintely not the sign of a strong vortex, while we may have a zonal pattern here things change quickly.
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40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Best way to get rid of a slug?
Send it on holiday to Scandi!
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Just now, Nick2373 said:
Why is it every year hopes are pinned on a SSW?? It’s not a 100% delivery of cold to the UK. And usually it’s a few weeks after a SSW event the UK sees something and as above it’s not 100% proof of cold.
Because a 70% chance is better than a 5% without one.
You cannot guarantee cold and snow to the UK in any capacity, only increase your chances. An SSW is one the best chances we have at establishing the blocking to give us a chance.
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
UKMO upgrades colder set up too, 168 may be quite good - need some slider activity into that.
In past years, models find wedges of high pressure at a closer time frame rather than counting it down from the extended.
May mean it’s slightly colder rain but it’s interesting nonetheless.
GFS does find some weak heights near Svalbard however so might cause storm systems to track further south, could be a wet one!
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A bleak outlook but not the bleakest as @Singularitysays there’s been many years where a southerly track Atlantic and a weak wedge have produced. Dec 2017 Springs to my mind.
Overall I don’t believe it’s hopeless and Scandi height rises would be welcome but we need to take in those Ec46 anomalies it’s great to see heights north but you want to see low heights south too.
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Could be a juicy FI here.
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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
yes - because the way things are trending the run will be derived from a much worse eps than Thursday's 0z eps
although i have a sneaking suspicion this might well be the direction of travel early Jan.
Agree here, do believe we’re coming to a close in regards of heights NW. With a weak PV height rises NE are our best chance
Such a shame that we have a Greenland high but a west base one, one has to imagine the scenes here if we ended under the fire of those NE’lies near Iceland. Would have been one for the history books!
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Throw in a trigger channel runner and you've got 2013.