Snowman.
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Posts posted by Snowman.
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They never come easy! Not we have the trough in the Atlantic not making it far enough East in time and pumping Iberian heights.
Good lord this is a proper chase isn’t it?
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23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
More notable push of heights through Greeny at T120 , and heights heading in from Alaska
Not wholly surprised that the pacific ridge has only recently started getting modelled, the models always struggle with polar heights so this makes sense.
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EC looks primed to me!
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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything.
It saps them away because they connect and build together.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
UKMO at 168 - let’s cling on to that for now and see what the ENS say - could be an outlier.
Clearly it’s hard to model and blocking over Greenland's land mass - if upgrades happen overnight we will be hitting a more reliable timeframe - likewise the other way of course!! I think we are still in the game - the METO update is great, their super computer may have a better handle on it.
UKMO is the best run, lets not forget the 12z improved too. Awaiting the ECM ens with great anxiety.
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Today
Yesterday
Defo been a push back against the northern extent, but within the envelope. Low by Greenland further East however, might benefit us later.
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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Fair one - the control and mean at 174 are v good
I feel like the control is always more in line with the other models, would love to know it’s verification stats vs the OP. I’ve viewed it more recently than ever before. Wonder if anyone feels the same?
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3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
One thing I have noticed this morning is how the gfs has the initial high in a much different position to the other models, it's as much as 200 miles different just at 72-96 hours.
Surely this will have a massive impact on where it ends up post 168.
I'm still leaning towards some decent shower activity for the south next week too with that cold pool, heights are touch and go.
It's defo the most progressive. While you could argue the GEM is progressive, it's for a different reason as there is so much Arctic high pressure it just gets absorbed before it can fully establish.
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Lots to be resolved...
6z v 0z EC
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God damn that is an insane control! Top 5 for me that.
No surprise by 18z, can always count on the pub run to cause a stir good or bad and we was due a little wobble on an OP run.
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I know everyone is looking at the GFS, but I can't stop looking at the UKMO.
The GFS sends the cold over western russian SW, misses us totally which is fine but the UKMO looks like its poised to go West instead due the presence of high pressure need svalbard. Meaning cold in sooner and it would be deeeep cold too...
Just wished the UKMO went further, that could have turned into a cobra run. If the ECM follows this set-up and delivers...
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Control BTW
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GEM similar with the UK high but looks to be re-amplifying and retrogressing to GL! Vortex in tatters.
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The saving grace on the UKMO is the arctic heights, much better than the GFS and may give the high the lift it needs to advect cold air to the UK.
Not the start to the 12z we wanted, but there is enough uncertainty across the models to allow for improvements.
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24 minutes ago, Purga said:
Not bad my son, not bad!
Rare sight to a mean of -5 there 10 days out.
Somethings brewing…
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23 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:
Quick question, does modelling tend to increase the strength of wedges closer to the timeframe? Do wonder if models perhaps a tad too progressive on how much Atlantic we get.
Wouldn't be surprised to see an Easterly ensemble member in the coming days.. doesn't take much change on the UKMO to make that happen.
Model stuggle when dealing with High Pressure at a nothern lattitude as they try to displace, it's a reason as to why when we have channel runners and such they are often too far north and correct south with time (most of time missing us completely). I am not technical enough to explain the reasons other than models will struggle when the atlantic meets a block to our NE.
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The upcoming pattern looking very reminicesnt on Jan 2013 when UKMO took all the models to the wire. With all these slow sliding lows meanandering accross the Atlantic bumping into wedges is going to make this almost impossible to forecast.
UKMO, EC and GFS for 144.
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
So frustrating , the PV is away from home and we still get drenched..
Not enough heights north to force the jet south to erase those Iberian heights.
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2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
LOADING!!!!!!!!!
...........
Defo! 18z gearing up for a special one.
Defo the most exciting winter since 2017/18. 20/21 was also good too but there is no reason to be down with current outlook.
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13 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
That’s one of the best anoms I’ve seen, pressure is high still over the UK NW indicating that troughs are likely well south and cold winds are established.
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11 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:
Please elaborate?
Apologies for not being clear, I meant there is a lack of any nothern blocking forcing the Jet further south to erase those heights.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
Those Iberian heights show no mercey.
0 forcing on them.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hoping that once we get it in the models start to play with the wedge scenario and keep lows south.