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Snowman.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    While I believe we will suffer a period of Atlantic influence, my main focus is the block NE I can’t escape the possibility of around the 20th we will see high pressure develop NE which will likely calm our weather and cold and frosty conditions, the last 3rd of December will be have us glued to this forum. Let us hope for we don’t repeat a Dec 2021. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowman.

    Mean 6z vs 0z

    gens-31-1-162.png  image.thumb.png.7f122858961c7ca7693e8c550084feb8.png

     

    The wrap around heights to the north is very apparent, as the atlantic hits the block east it is throwing a ridge ahead, while that is likely to draw southerly winds it may lead to height building to the NE.

    As this continues you can see heights to the NE "winning" out and the trough becomes more negatively aligned.

    image.thumb.png.2cdf0e6f8eb208f4522308a2ff6c9e66.png

    Not far off an Easterly at this moment. If I was to hedge a conservative bet, below is looking like where we could end up. Almost a stalemate nice block NE but not far enough west. 

    image.thumb.png.b0999d096535f3fdd2189180df81177c.png

    Now if we are lucky we need to see a ridge at around 120 mark we need see a vertically aligned trough building a ridge ahead of it.

    image.thumb.png.1f5e9229ef8e2516b9d1f6d72aa37ea0.png is what we are after

    image.thumb.png.ea4d2febc654979ffa8f4d1ecfa1c330.png horror show.

     

    There are some absolute peaches in the ensembles, but rides or dies on how much amplficiation we can get earlier on.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

     No, the ‘westerly’ pattern/Atlantic influence is nailed on imo.  Just how that manifests itself and exact timing is still to be seen.  It’s by no means set that December will be eaten up by it though, far from it….what we don’t want it this

    image.thumb.png.8c4bac7fa1ea762b44e7bfcfb08cd581.png

    fortunately it’s a GFS ‘hurricane’ so large pinch of salt.  But the 00z had a deep storm around then….so something to keep an eye on re getting a named storm going forward.

     

    BFTP

    Make it 2. 940mb!

    image.thumb.png.d5b124691d853a437e966c11f14db55e.png

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, TauntonRoss said:

    Need to look at the bigger picture though, cold in place and the more reliable charts are trying to deepen the cold air, to me it looks cold right beyond next weekend, after that is a crystal ball kinda of weather forecast. 

    Like I said, the big picture doesn’t mean anything to anyone unless it starts snowing outside. 
     

    I’m all about the bigger picture, but unless it starts delivering what many here are after then it will just remain the bigger picture. 
     

    I live on the coast, in the south I know my chances. There is a reason why the M4 corridor is a net weather meme at this point because those south are told to think about the bigger picture and it will change when it gets closer, the models underestimate the cold uppers etc but yet in the middle of cold spell they get cold rain and not snow it doesn’t fill them with confidence. 
     

    The nature of our setup we’re potentially going into is much the same, some will get snow others will get rain. It’s just the winners and losers of a messy situation of the cold air meeting the mild air. While cold yes, unless it is snowing outside their house then they will see as a disappointment. 

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowman.

    35 minutes ago, TauntonRoss said:

    Hence why people need to chill, the charts will catch up.

    I think many here are looking for snow, the problem with these types of charts that while yes we’re heading for colder than average but for many unless it is snowing outside they’re not going to be happy. 
     

    I believe this is where the frustration is coming from, decent synoptics but not cold enough to guarantee snow will fall.
     

    As for the BBC, you’re better off following this thread for up to date information as they work on a lagging period. 

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Really sorry to say but the UKMO this morning really isn’t great and would likely to leading to you needing a boat rather than a sledge. Luckily it seems relatively alone but you don’t want deep bowling ball lows like that. You want flat lows with the centre over the northern half of France. 
     

    Generally speaking if lows start phasing the West/SW of the UK that can spell trouble as it throws a ridge up in front which brings a southerly feed into the UK, the last thing you’re after when searching for cold and snow. 
     

    The shape you’re after is flat lows south, this allows for the greatest chance to advert cold air west. 
     

     

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