Snowman.
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Posts posted by Snowman.
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Hard to be tempted by the 18z, such wild changes early on it’s a bit ridiculous, especially when it swings in our favour it’s very hard to take seriously!
Outlier or trend setter?
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12z going for it.
Don’t think it will be long before the next chase is underway. Definitely see polar heights causing chaos in FI.
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
Think the ECM spilt its coffee a bit before that!
It may be incorrect early but I have more belief in what happens after the beginning of next week than this Saturday!
Cant shake the feeling that Scandi heights are inbound. A lingering Jet with low pressure to our South East 18z and 12z ECM both looked decent to give it a good attempt of building a substantial block.
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It appears we’re off to Scandi from D12 on the GFS. ECM also smelling the same coffee?
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Would like a similar feature of sending a shortwave through the Azores, obviously because it creates a snow event but more to keep it out our business.
Unless it can build far enough north then its the last thing I want to see rearing its ugly mug towards us!
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1 minute ago, Johnp said:
Really? I better go to specsavers.
vs
Azores ridge ruins it.
We do need a steady stream of lows to keep us cold. The lack of eastward progression and trough disruption on the UKMO isn't great.
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Not a fan of the UKMO, would prefer more oompf East to get the cold to properly head south.
144 has a ridge thrown up over us too would need to see 168 to see if the next low slides. Not impressed but the GFS is really good.
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Something is afoot in the ensembles.
A cold Xmas day is pretty much gone BUT there growing support to extend the cold by keeping pressure low to our south/se.
12z
18z
That a mean NE'ly flow there? Pretty cold.
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If you can keep a train of lows running through the channel into europe we will remain cold.
Proper channel low incoming.
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1 minute ago, Dimie10 said:
BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??
Old data, BBC broadcast uses old date.
And in this situation the past 12 hours things have really changed.
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ECM still too far north for my liking especially as it phases into the Scandi trough. Want that thing going into Belgium and a little flatter.
An improvement from this mornings run although still not great, a sobering reminder that this ordeal still isn’t done.
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Fantastic set of runs so far. Really good to see this place buzzing again.
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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Expecting gfs to backdown in a couple of hours!!!good thing is it comes out first so when it downgrades it wont hurt as much cos we know ukmo and ecm will be same and wont be any worse lol!!!
GFS flips, UKMO booms and ECM is a halfway house. Leaving us even more confused
Calling it now
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22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
My god mate i totally agree!i feel the exact same as you right now!!!snowman we need to meet up for a coffee or sumin!!
Nothing like a costa and discussing Norwegian shortwaves for an hour
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1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:
Can't believe how heated it's getting (guilty as charged) over whether it's going to snow on 1 singular day, it may not be pretty but it sure is exciting
Problem is if it heads sufficiently south it’s more than just Christmas Day where snow can occur. Lot riding on it.
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Nail bitting stuff this, I almost want to return to the Norwegian shortwave drama.
Don’t see the 12z really helping at this point. However I would like to be wrong so I can move on with my life. Isn’t there a 6z ECM run too but only goes out till day 4 or so? Might be worth a ganders.
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2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Gem at 144, big step away from robust blocking unfortunately, compared to its overnight run,
Really don't know what caused the sudden lost of pressure around Greenland.
Hard to have faith in any output after that.
Drastic changes across the arctic.
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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:
GFS mean V Op
Not a lot in it but mean is a little better.
Personally I think GFS is off its trolley with its handling of the Atlantic low and would go with the Euros, but that's me.
Reckon there's still more give in that low especially from the GFS. Slightly flatter and more sharp as it enters would change the landscape drastically.
But hope for something ON Xmas for many is fading. But after is still up for grabs IMHO. Just need to keep a wedge of heights to keep lows south and we are in for some winnings.
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20 minutes ago, Purga said:
A solid and well supported shift to cold right up to the start of the New Year.
That's the best set of Ensembles since 2018.
Still waaayyy too far away to get hopeful, but things have been positive today.
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2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:
Bliss for the South.. nightmare for the North ..as it stands...the reality though is this will keep going ever further south and could end up missing us all.
Convection or disturbances are likely to be working in your favour here.
If it trends further south then you'll end up with a better NE'ly. All good here.
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One for the history books!
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Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:
north of the m4! haha
For now..
ALready pushing south! Snow showers in the east. AH too good to be true.
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Just a casual foot of snow on Xmas for the midlands.
No biggie.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Often times you need the pressure in place first before you get your pressure drop. Our problems usually come from keeping pressure in place and at strength required to divert the jet south or causing it split.