Snowman.
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Posts posted by Snowman.
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Ummmmmmmm the 18z FI looks so unrealistic it puts a question mark over the higher resolution part.
Bin the run after 192hrs as the evolution looks extremely unrealisitc.
I noticed this aswell it looks as if it wanted to build heights north then the entire high is just slammed down on.
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Looking chilly in the next few days
May even have a wintry mix with it!
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GFS has my down for snow where I live tomorrow I'm happy even if its sleet!
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As expected T240+ tones it down and try to tear through it like paper!
Fun time ahead people!
Then gives us easterly well that what happens if someone who loves snow is able to control the weather!
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I was talking about all models in general.
If it was so unpredictable, the models wouldn't be there
Models find it hard when it comes to certain patterns because a slight change it were energy goes it makes a massive difference further down the line.
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Retrogression to Greenland?
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That tropical low is more amplified and wants to slam into the High over Europe and is really trying hard I'm watching this as it could help us much further down the line.
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Significant upgrade here from the GFS.
12z
18z
I know I keep banging on about it, but we need to watch that Azores depression as it develops as it could deliver cold to the UK.
The run is a considerable upgrade. Why? Because the GFS once again has overestimated the PV, and underestimated the strength of the block.not to mention a considerable westward shift of the entire pattern. It does this time in time out, I cannot see how some posters cannot see this flaw.
However much the GFS wants to reform the PV, it is not going to happen. The Arctic high is not going to deflate. not until, at the very least, the second half of December. FI is situated at roughly 120 hours, and it is pointless to speculate the weather conditions much beyond this timeframe
Thanks for clearing that up!
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Some more cross zonal that should help us down the line GFS loses the undercutting as soon as it goes into low res looks like were in for a few more weeks of nerve racking model watching!
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PV looks more organized in this don't know if this something to worry about about yet but still.
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Very high pressure over the pole with cross polar I believe.
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have a look at the hemispheric view
Latter on it starts to settle over eastern Canada.
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18z decides to fire up that PV when it goes into low res.
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During November the hype around for the end of November was exceptional with the CFS first to pick up on the trend the drop it later on. Which is what happened GFS picked up brought it into a reliable time frame then taken by us from the energy in Canada.sent eastwards into the block. I find the CFS a very good model when it comes to 3 weeks into the future.
Currently the CFS shows the Atlantic breakdown then goes for a alternate view with High pressure build over us before moving to Scandinavia
T240 http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-240.png?06
T354 http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-354.png?06
T474
FI yes but the CFS picked up the November pattern change early on but when It came to the time where other models picked up this change the CFS dropped it only for it to be right. Recently it's being showing this very often so It's always a possibility.
May be nothing but it CAN NOT be ruled out!
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wow
CFS took a deep one!
Showing easterly or most of December!
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What is wrong with ECM yes it does show a zonal pattern but towards the end heights begin to build north with a cold pool over Scandinavia if anything I would rather have the ECM shows some real potential it's more than likely not to happen but still you have 3 months of winter and this year is looking good for cold weather it only one run and here enjoy this ray of sunshine.
You can see on that chart that Height build over Greenland and stretch out with the two troughs sinking south it looks good!
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General question do you believe that their will upgrades or downgrades in the models I personally don't believe we will see many upgrades if any at all. I was wrong about 2010 thou so I never know.
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Hmm if anything I like the new models actually the trends that its getting shows a very blocked one during December I would be surprised if their was a northerly spell.
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Don't want to derail anything here should I warn people about next week yet or not I like to give people a heads up view.
(not for snow just saying it could get cold with POSSIBLE snow)
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Very similar to 12z so far can't see much difference yet
Loads. Low is further north and really wants to dig into the Europe high which is think is good?
Someone help me!
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Looks like the GFS is going on yet another route here!
Really the differences between GFS runs at only 120hrs are laughable,compare this to the earlier 12hrs over the eastern USA, unbelievable!
This does look closer to the UKMO so maybe this is a good sign! Here we see the phasing of those two lows upstream and we have a mini northern Scandi high popping up aswell!
Damn it!
Beat me to it
Anyway look at T144
Then 12z
Almost completely different.
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Exacta Weather’s report stated: “Large parts of the upcoming winter will be very cold and exceptionally snowy. The forecasting parameters also suggest a potentially high-risk scenario for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century.
So he is saying that this winter is going to beat 47 and 63???
I would love to take some of what he is taking!! I love my snow and like a ramp but this forecast is beyond the realms of fantasy!! Pmsl.
That page hasn't been updated since 2009!
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Forget about the 18z GFS it's drunk only good thing that came out of it is this.
Full heights over the pole with little remains of the vortex that was smashed too bits.
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Well, even out into FI the cold doesn't quite reach the UK
Another run that pushes back the potential. Sorry but I really feel we're just chasing charts in FI now, the cold never gets any closer if it bothers to show up at all, it's been like this for several days now.
It looks good if that went a few more hours ahead you could would begin to see the cold flow in.
Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The GFS handled the band of snow very well last night different to the UKMO because of that I know have about 3-4cm of snow and still coming down hard and fast!