Snowman.

Not sure what to say looks good for FI but it just getting pushed further back? EDIT: NVM Looks good

That trough is causing all the problems although it looks as if pressure is trying to build behind it.

Solar maximum not a rare site plus the lag effect which a year or so but for solar maximum it's still low though. http://solarscience....n_predict_l.gif Compare it too 2000.

Ohhhh this looks gooooood. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif And http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif If we do get some cold it should be fairly decent!

To far west for my liking but anyway the future is looking alot more interesting at the moment with all this potential, fun times are ahead in terms of the models.

From that link I see the PV looking likely to split meaning that their would be a change in weather pattern as height increases over Greenland.

Actually that looks better than yesterday in turns of cold, only one run went negative on that chart is looks like there flipping to a negative so I don't think that you can through that away just yet out of the 3 months of winter it has time to change as it just goes out to a 14 day period.

Wow that escalated quickly!

It looks like it's trying warm up a tad but I suspect it usually does this...

Shhhhh Have you not seen the topic title?

Hmm I can see the next 10-14 days being fairly settled but look at that chart -10 to 7 which doesn't suggest a very accurate answer now I'm not clinging onto now straws yet but the possibility of a cold flow at the end of November to December is looking likely especially if that PV decides to move again as it can't seem to settle down anywhere. I believe that this winter will be cool much like we have experienced already but with some periods of Southerly flow bringing so mild and wet conditions in the west I also believe will see record heat/rainfalls maybe even some gale force winds recorded along with some record cold/snow (not as bad as 2010 don't worry) so all in all two extremes in one winter which tbh I wouldn't mind.

I must say though that the PV doesn't look like its going to stay over greenland that long

I'm new to the Stratosphere and stuff like that so don't shout at me! I am slowly learning by looking through your posts and data that you provide I have a question about the polar vortex. What makes the vortex stressed and doesn't settle in particular spot moving around the northern pole and making all weather patterns act weird.

Ahhh you beat me to it! Now lets see if that Trough will play ball.

PV heads over Greenland that is why pressure drops but considering that thing has been everywhere I wouldn't suspect it to last there that long.

Or winter is 2011 Spring

I know this is a long way off but the 18z GFS has the PV pushed east over Canada allowing heights to rise over Greenland yet again. So far off in weather terms but still hope is hope. Looking at the NAO forecast the Atlantic is still pretty much dead might rise to positive before going into the the negatives. Shame that I cant say that about the AO any reason why this is?

Yes it feels winter already slightly odd feeling actually.

Well here goes nothing! My winter "forecast" November - I do believe this month will be slightly below average with a milder setting half way between the month but it wont last long as I believe we may get a taste of winter with temps dropping across the UK with frost likely where skies are clear may have showers running down the north and east coast to lower levels at time it may well accumulate over time I can see these heading further depends on the balance of the could/wind direction this will continue into the first few days of December. December - Not sure about this one I do believe this one will come out average as mild air sweeps through It will remain like this for most of the month as fronts push east. Towards the Christmas period I think we could see temps decline a little bit with high pressure in full control with a deep frost were skies are clear cant rule out a shower run down the coast these are most likely to be wintry even at lower ground. As new year comes I reckon we could see a easterly start to develop but not in full swing till January. My beginning of winter forecast this just based on pure feeling so don't take it into assumption.

Its only next week I couldn't care less if November is mild and wet as long as I get a week with a couple inches of snow and some cold within the next 4 months I'm happy!

All fun and games from the CFS this far out so nothing should be taken from it but look at that low as it heads into Ireland. Powerful stuff!

CFS daily is all fun and games if your low on hopes that might cheers you up blocked for a 2 weeks! Makes a different approach with the High that the GFS just hasn't got a scooby what to with it.

Well Their goes my hope for November!

Tbh Essex missed most of the snow in December 4" max one good snowfall? November was about double that or more which is always good. February this year was a decent snowfall just didn't stick around long enough. I remember the 09/10 winter being my favourite winter of all as January never let me down with snow showers in February every week or so never go old!

If anything December can turn crappy if it wants just want a nice cold easterly January. Hope that the Azores high keeps it ugly rear from entering the UK!