Snowman.

I noticed this aswell it looks as if it wanted to build heights north then the entire high is just slammed down on.

Looking chilly in the next few days May even have a wintry mix with it!

GFS has my down for snow where I live tomorrow I'm happy even if its sleet!

As expected T240+ tones it down and try to tear through it like paper! Fun time ahead people! Then gives us easterly well that what happens if someone who loves snow is able to control the weather!

Models find it hard when it comes to certain patterns because a slight change it were energy goes it makes a massive difference further down the line.

Retrogression to Greenland?

That tropical low is more amplified and wants to slam into the High over Europe and is really trying hard I'm watching this as it could help us much further down the line.

Thanks for clearing that up!

Some more cross zonal that should help us down the line GFS loses the undercutting as soon as it goes into low res looks like were in for a few more weeks of nerve racking model watching!

PV looks more organized in this don't know if this something to worry about about yet but still.

Very high pressure over the pole with cross polar I believe.

Latter on it starts to settle over eastern Canada.

18z decides to fire up that PV when it goes into low res.

During November the hype around for the end of November was exceptional with the CFS first to pick up on the trend the drop it later on. Which is what happened GFS picked up brought it into a reliable time frame then taken by us from the energy in Canada.sent eastwards into the block. I find the CFS a very good model when it comes to 3 weeks into the future. Currently the CFS shows the Atlantic breakdown then goes for a alternate view with High pressure build over us before moving to Scandinavia T240 http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-240.png?06 T354 http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-354.png?06 T474 FI yes but the CFS picked up the November pattern change early on but when It came to the time where other models picked up this change the CFS dropped it only for it to be right. Recently it's being showing this very often so It's always a possibility. May be nothing but it CAN NOT be ruled out!

wow CFS took a deep one! Showing easterly or most of December!

What is wrong with ECM yes it does show a zonal pattern but towards the end heights begin to build north with a cold pool over Scandinavia if anything I would rather have the ECM shows some real potential it's more than likely not to happen but still you have 3 months of winter and this year is looking good for cold weather it only one run and here enjoy this ray of sunshine. You can see on that chart that Height build over Greenland and stretch out with the two troughs sinking south it looks good!

General question do you believe that their will upgrades or downgrades in the models I personally don't believe we will see many upgrades if any at all. I was wrong about 2010 thou so I never know.

Hmm if anything I like the new models actually the trends that its getting shows a very blocked one during December I would be surprised if their was a northerly spell.

Don't want to derail anything here should I warn people about next week yet or not I like to give people a heads up view. (not for snow just saying it could get cold with POSSIBLE snow)

Loads. Low is further north and really wants to dig into the Europe high which is think is good? Someone help me!

Damn it! Beat me to it Anyway look at T144 Then 12z Almost completely different.

That page hasn't been updated since 2009!

Forget about the 18z GFS it's drunk only good thing that came out of it is this. Full heights over the pole with little remains of the vortex that was smashed too bits.

It looks good if that went a few more hours ahead you could would begin to see the cold flow in.

Not bad run real potential for something longer lived that High looks to be in charge and would take some force to move it the size of that thing is massive!