Snowman.

Where is the PV? Just too add For fun of course but still looking better.

I want to ask this question too. After the main warming is their a chance that it will start up again? In term causing a mess of the PV?

Notice the slight Height rises to the East of Greenland? Now that is something,

Nope, two core parts of the Vortex one in Canada, the other in Western Russia with above normal heights in the pole.

I like this picture FI yes but this would be the Baby steps to some colder weather.

*facepalm*

Too add with everything that is meant to happen, models are going to have a hard time with the warming strat so FI is really unrealistic.

How many times has it done that this winter? I'm a coldie yes but what I'm looking for is less energy in Canada and Higher pressure near Greenland that wont last long at would be dry as well. Still hopping for a PV over the Russian side of the pole giving Pressure rises in Greenland with ridging into the Atlantic.

I don't believe anything that GFS is giving us in FI with the warming strat and all that Wave activity in near impossible for a PV to be that organized. With Lows covering the entire pole.

FI stands at about T96 IMO look at the difference Clear undercut with a ridge trying to extend into Greenland!

I was talking about this a few days ago when it first appeared to me that this could be are life support.

Binning that 12z run gets rid of my Arctic high that I have been looking for every single run. Really hope that this doesn't continue.

True still very nice to see. As it needs to work through the layers of the strat for a full effect. Anyway NO ONE get their hopes up for any kind of cold spell I have learnt that the hard way with all these flops recently.

Best run yet for far FI, in terms of are easterly in time for Christmas I'm not getting my hopes up. BUT definite trend for High pressure over the pole along with the other trend for a significant warming at 10hpa. If we could establish a firm ridge into Greenland then we could be looking at some cold times. FI yes but the trend is still their. One thing that could go wrong is a shortwave spawning from the Canadian part of vortex going straight into are block similar to what happened in November.

Still got that Arctic high not as strong but still their!

Has anyone noticed the small Arctic high on recent runs?

FI still looks good although the models don't anything in terms of cold we have several things that will help us down the line. 1) Trended warming in the 10Hpa Strat which is seen by the GFS for a number of days and the ECM is starting to pick it up aswell. 2) Arctic High has been thrown around in the Charts recently and looks better with every run. 3) Many have been alarmed of the PV moving to Greenland but this is more of the case that GFS just goes to Default in FI, we are now starting to see it become more displaced again and move to Russian/Scandinavian which should favour in Greenland ridging.

Still looking good!

This has also stopped them dreaded lows spawning over US.

I'm liking this run its moving the PV to Russia with heights increasing over the pole this is also keeping the PV from establishing its self over Greenland.

Yes it all could go tits up but their is a real good signal with it being shown in every run for the past few days we're going to have to wait a good 3-4 days before it shows up on the ECM but it looking like a good trend.

Considering how the PV is behaving wouldn't bet on it lasting their too long it's also fairly week with a predicted warming in 10hpa strat temperatures around Christmas. I wouldn't worry about the PV its days are numbered when it comes to setting up shop.

Their is more signals for January than December in November many models pointed towards a Zonal December 11 days in its still below average.

Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models. I will leave you with this pretty picture.