Snowman.

CFS is being really naughty.

18z GEFS is the first to show fairly strong signal of re-amplifying the pattern (considering the range) after the collapse of the our initial block. Difference being is how the PV/Pacific ridge/Artic high is handled this leads to the difference in output. It should be noted that not all runs end with us in a favourable position but there are good number (~40%) that put us well onto the tracks of cold spell for mid month with ~20% in a sort of grey area. Exciting times ahead with many more upsets to come.

Fairly weak but I would say that more time is needed. Very much a mixed bagged due to how the current block and PV is handled in the runs.

P17 if you want to send yourself to bed all hot and flustered. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=17&mode=0&carte=1 As for the overall ensembles bit of mix though blocking favoured and a 'breakdown' of the block faster much like the 18z OP, sending lows into the high from the trough disruption out to the west to breakup its claim on the UK. Overall i'm not sure how much I can trust it.

Meanwhile in the on the pub run. It heard your calls for the UK high and gave us our westerlies back.

Impressive vortex attack. Very far from your average december.

192.

Interesting 144. That scandi trough could prove to be useful if it heads S/SW.

Now we need to see if it lasts.

He's talking about the OP not the Ensembles.

T240 has potential, the building blocks are all in place

Doesn't quite get there difficult to see why as we can see in between frames. So more runs needed blah blah blah

Nothing to worry about. Two charts from two famous winters. One from a recent winter. The chart from the GFS Don't fret and enjoy the wild ride.

In terms of heading into December That's a fantastic NH profile best so far.

Pretty good NH pattern on the ECM far from the circle and more of a H

The tweet in question as it is a little small. Wave 2 clearly shown with the PV still off the pole no strong warming however.

There you go. Finish off today with those words. Goodnight everyone sleep well as we have another day ahead of us tomorrow.

UKMO merges the low

GFS is so knife edge that i'd rather avoid the situation all together so many of those hazard spoilers.

Too much credit is being given to the GFS right now. It happened in earlier november with the GFS overly bullish about height rises NW. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to stick to the fact that the METO know what they're talking about, they're professionals after all. It's way to earlier to decide who has won.

There is a distinct problem with the GFS evolution however is that it can go horribly wrong with a west based -NAO Control shows this with a southerly for most of the UK. Just another hurdle after this initial hurdle is how far can we kick the pattern east.

Tbf the ECM isn't even bad. That's a prime chart for a mid month cold spell. To ridges straight into the pole with the jet well south and the PV with very little organisation. Just the GFS, GEM and UKMO all show a quicker route to cold. .

Looks pretty blocked to me.

Where is this heading?

ECM to 192, interest is there lets see if retrogression is on the line.