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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    It should be worth the concern when it continues to show in output. To get anything decent we're going to need to see some drastic changes from the models which I don't see happening.
  2. Snowman.
    Doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed and days 5-7 aren't DEEP FI either.
  3. Snowman.
    Far the opposite I'm afraid. The 2nd trough in the Atlantic stops heights retrogressing west and will flatten the pattern faster. 12z now with a SW'ly flow establishing. 6z Under a colder westerly flow
  4. Snowman.
    12z is pretty different in the mid Atlantic. 12z6z
  5. Snowman.
    I feel everyone gives last year a little too much credit. The chart below is from last year around this time too. We was actually really close bar some shortwave drama. Even further in PV in complete shambles. Due to heavy stratospheric influence.
  6. Snowman.
    18z obviously didn't get the memo and is still running on that "Christmas data" That's a joke btw Cold uppers flirt the east coast. Could be very cold.
  7. Snowman.
    Indeed UKMO is looking to go for another shot.
  8. Snowman.
    Compare today's 12z and yesterdays 12z the ecm has done well to continue
  9. Snowman.
    Middle of family fun and games but 144 on the ecm looks great! No stepdown
  10. Snowman.
    Lovely snow event Oh whats that? Not enough? Here have an easterly.
  11. Snowman.
    As the cold front introducing the cold moves south, the back edge turns to snow.
  12. Snowman.
    Then when does MLB start and finish then?
  13. Snowman.
    GEFS playing with the idea of height rises NE as we head through Jan after the toppler scenario (Which is doesn't really support as heights are too high SE for a northerly outbreak.) D10 Mean Rather flat looking with lows running just north. D16 Clear surge of heights NE, lower pressure south than of recent times. Jan could be an interesting month.
  14. Snowman.
    The funny thing is that the -8 gets only as far south as Manchester.
  15. Snowman.
    Gah if you could shove that low over us 300 miles SE then we would be rolling in snow. Nearly all the dots align yet those euro heights STILL persist! Glad it's so far in FI that it doesn't matter.
  16. Snowman.
    18z perfectly shows the difference between the two. A sort of 'U' shaped high More of a 'n' shaped high.
  17. Snowman.
    Looks to me mid-atlantic ridge before toppling over with the high once again over us. Although that is an extremely vague analysis as Wk3 looks rather like no strong signal. Let's see if we can get a mid-atlantic ridge first before moving on.
  18. Snowman.
    ECM is defo toppler scenario way too much going upstream but if the downstream favours well you could drag some north easterly winds off it as the high sinks with a low underneath. No major HLB blocking looks likely but a toppler with the right downstream over Europe will do us well
  19. Snowman.
    GFS and ECM this morning both show ridging in the pacific and the atlantic with both leaning towards moving a bulk of the trop PV towards the Siberian side of things but a small vortice is left in Canada. So that p word is there but it remains deep within FI but a pattern change does indeed loom for new year.
  20. Snowman.
    It should be noted that even last winter there was chances. Just December 2015 largely skewed our perception on the overall winter. There will be chances don't write the winter off yet.
  21. Snowman.
    Really? Things don't seem nearly far as extreme considering we've only had one named storm this season. Seems like an over reaction to the GFS output tbh. GEM ECM GFS Looks pretty clear which one is being a bit too pushy, and no other than the GFS. Para looks like the halfway house.
  22. Snowman.
    Actually this year it's been the opposite! GFS going for the cold and blocked with the ECM having none of it, just seems that the GFS just doesn't like being right.
  23. Snowman.
    Who needs a polar vortex?
  24. Snowman.
    D10 West v East?
  25. Snowman.
    Oh boy http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168 Panels show a good story I should say prehaps we're not done yet?
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