Snowman.
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Everything posted by Snowman.
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18z has a pretty interesting change in the jet vs Could lead to unsettled weather further south. -
Difference is astounding.
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Imagine living Italy 0z Not that bad could be a little chilly. And the 6z Talk about an upgrade!
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Building heights NE is looking good right now.
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There is actually another positive. The 11-15 day range has stayed the same, even with wobble from the 12z runs they still manage to get that easterly attempt with heights still low to the south and high north, obviously doesn't guarantee cold but gives a good chance.
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Seems to be the end goal as long as we don't go full UKMO the ECM would get there in the end.
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The UKMO goes out further, its just we only see to 144.
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If anything it looks a lot like yesterdays 12z 216 aswell ECMGFS Not too shabby
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ECM and GFS ECM GFS
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6z12z Hey at least the snow chance for the next few days have increased!
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It's different to the UKMO anyway so if it helps it's on its own!
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It was something that was discussed a lot in 2012/2013. "Reverting to default" was what it was called unsure if it was proven but in times such as Jan 2013 (Ironically enough it was the UKMO vs all on our Jan cold spell) the models underplayed the block when its influence turned out to be stronger.
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The massive cold to east should show it. -8 off the coast on 6z and its inland on the 12z.
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http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php
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Didn't see anyone posting that when the above was up for grabs.
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The 6z had already downgraded the initial blast. Even if the 12z didn't go this 'UKMO' route whats to stop it from being downgraded more? It was still 7 days away plenty of time for change, throw up a shortwave here and there or get a zipper atlantic low we should be glad that even if it doesn't happen then the door is still open for further chances and the SW'lies aren't in full force.
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No northerly on the 6z that early. That is the earliest part that half the country gets a northerly not even very cold.
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I must be seeing different models as I see no step down into a cold regime with blocking still evident. In fact the 12z is probably the best run today as it upgrades the blocked prospect into the extended period.
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Oh man the ending of the 6z is just a tease! Classic easterly setting up there would love to see it. All for fun but I really do believe that an easterly shot around mid Jan has a chance!
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Looks to me like cold rain for lower levels. The 6z doesn't bring the v cold air at all. Obviously far out in FI and they share similar pressure patterns, but the deep low that comes down to give us the northerly feed throws warmer air in front of it. But the high pressure is further north and may give us a better chance of an easterly. Just variations in the theme.
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GEFS are real keen on keeping heights low over europe as long as this persists chances will arise.
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Today it wants gate crash an already poor but still somewhat alive party. GEFS looking great, I have noticed that a lot them slow down the low heading through the states allowing for more amplification. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Actually they support it, just the OP was probably worst case, check the control run it has it but it behaves itself much better. So its just another variable to track but the UKMO is in dire need a of a kick up the a** It can be friend or foe at the moment, lets hope for friend. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think that's the previous run, just a glitch. Below is the control. GEFS seems to have jumped ship with the low in the Atlantic now becoming a spoiler.
