Snowman.

GFS has the jet weaker with less heading N and more SE.

Looks like UKMO if anything better.

Can we please please please drop the "this model won/lost" crap. I don't come here to trawl through pages of posts after work when half of them aren't even related to the actual weather. It was a difficult situation, we all know this it was said multiple times. Every model struggled and there was no clear winner only losers, us cold lovers.

GFS now has what I've been asking for! A shortwave going under the high heading west.

Need something from the SE of the block running west. This is how you get classic easterly nearly all them have a low/shortwave running under the block from the SE of the block.

You're going to need the Atlantic making inroads if you want the slightest chance of something more than a dreary SE'ly. 144 is slider gate 3 electric bogaloo and we all know who well the models model them...

I would like more models to develop the low SE of the high. If the ECM does it there could be some spectacular scenes later in the run.

It went from a W air flow to SW to S in three days each time the block is stronger and more resilient to the Atlantic till today where it manages to stop it. Still plenty of time for that to push even further west and have us a little surprise or two. According the NW folk it is impossible for all models to be wrong and there must be one winner.

Must say I am kinda happy with this mornings runs GFS only needs a few tweaks and it's there as well as the ECM. UKMO best of the lot. Rather nice that we're starting to come together for a block to the NE to last a while. And with it being there so far out it possible to get some upgrades.

The models are slowly coming together. And as said the other day no one model had it nailed. The GFS was/is way to progressive today it's starting to get it but as soon as it hits low res all is lost. GEM went for a classic straight styled easterly which is on the other end of the spectrum that the GFS is on. So what happened? They formed a mid ground of the block holding against the Atlantic but not aligning itself well enough to advert colder ups. All can still change with the UKMO being the only model to have something move SE of the high heading west. If anything the block is too strong which also shuts out Atlantic inroads to are needed to prop the block up. ECM should give us a good feel of where we are at.

Someone posted a picture a page back or so with a band of snow over the SE.

Oh look it's great.

Are we talking about the BBC's thoughts or MOs? As I was talking about the BBCs and I'm not trying to read how I want to.

BA pointed out to me yesterday that the bias on the ECM was muted.

They mention cold then the jet firing up and blasting the block out of the way with a potential snow event. Obviously now it's looking more likely that the cold continental feed is looking more likely.

The GFS and its ensembles have been wrong at 72 along with the ECM when an epic Easterly just disappeared from sight. UKMO was the model to call it right that time. Just like in Jan 2013 it was the only one to bring the shortwave SE for a time before the ECM and later GFS caught on. Follow the side that UKMO is on and you should be safe.

May I ask why it has to be ECM?

Thanks for the update. It does seem that the GFS has picked up the over amplification of heights in the Atlantic/Greenland area. Anyway my point still stands difficult situation to be and one that is difficult to forecast for the masses.

ECM's bias was over amplification of Scandi heights? Something along them lines. Also happens to be the GFS weakest where it will just barrel the Jet through. I agree UKMO is best bet, it's the one I will watching tomorrow.

Hurricane Force winds inbound for Iceland. Clearly not overdoing the Atlantic. What a Christmas it could have been! GFS King of the Greenland shortwave. ECM King of Verification stats GFS ECM What happened (notice higher heights north aswell). They were both wrong! UKMO the true King

Hear me out here. Maybe none of the models are displaying a true representation of what happens next week. Is that possible or does there have to be one right and this very moment.

Lack of low heights to the S/SE last year was what led to our demise. This year is different jet has had no problem heading south so can things go right for once?

144 A deep sigh of relief there. That is one of the closest we have come to something decent in a long time.

Our favourite comparison. GEM ECM