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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    GFS 12z it's much better over scandi with the heights. Lack of wind over the UK aswell so could be real cold if it's clear skies at night
  2. Snowman.
    UKMO doesn't show anything of the sort so we're 95% fine. Dec 2012 UKMO was having none of it and it proved correct. General rule of thumb is if the UKMO isn't on board then don't get your hopes up but in this situation it is.
  3. Snowman.
    Trigger shortwave not heading SE. Another shortwave spawns that stops cold air heading west/retrogression of heights. You'd be surprised those who was here for December 2012 will remember the pain of going to be with an easterly and 96 then waking up to a horror show.
  4. Snowman.
    2012 gave me about 6 inches but it was a breakdown event.
  5. Snowman.
    You have it the wrong way round my friend.
  6. Snowman.
    Production probably takes a day or so. And we all know what can happen in a day.
  7. Snowman.
    "It's not what you say but how you say it" I think that is what he is getting at here.
  8. Snowman.
    No it's not lol.
  9. Snowman.
    GEFS are very much improving. I believe @Singularity mentioned the low exiting the east coast at 126 yesterday which of course was being sent straight over the block is now adding amplification to Azores high out west which puts a bit of oompf downstream over the UK maybe giving a snow event? Who knows but there is plenty to play for right now.
  10. Snowman.
    P19 is what you want. Azores high re-amplifies out west and sends a slider straight through the UK giving the west a large snow event. There are a few beginning to do the above but don't have as much luck due to having a weaker high at the beginning. Something to look for.
  11. Snowman.
    Could be cold in the NE on the ECM little wind cold uppers.
  12. Snowman.
    GFS has caught up quite a bit still flatter than the UKMO but in the same ballpark
  13. Snowman.
    UKMO is looking really good although it's hard to put faith in any output seeing home much they've chopped and changed.
  14. Snowman.
    ECM goes with if at first you don't succeed. Then try, try again.
  15. Snowman.
    I was talking snowfall. Snow cover is much lower. And March 2013 was our last one with Ice Days down here.
  16. Snowman.
    By MO averages they're roughly the same but snow cover is much lower in March. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/
  17. Snowman.
    December and March are surprising equal in terms of snowfall just long lasting snow is harder to come by.
  18. Snowman.
    GEFS may have started sorting out its pacing issues with MJO lag time as the back end of the 0z suite has a near mean continental flow and isn't rushing in beasterlies.
  19. Snowman.
    Because chasing westerlies is boring. We don't come here to be sensible and conservative we come here because we want a little fun and drama while chasing Scandinavian heights. Also there is a lot pointing towards height rises NE, Glosea and ECM monthly are aligned for easterly flow.
  20. Snowman.
    Definitely less kick out of the Atlantic on this run.
  21. Snowman.
    Probably something going on there, bias and such.
  22. Snowman.
    18z suites have been overly enthusiastic recently.
  23. Snowman.
    Whoops it was march not April
  24. Snowman.
    Snow is also more common in those months than December. Well April anyway.
  25. Snowman.
    The control is incredible. Like 11/10 incredible. One of the best runs I have seen. Mean at T360 What was that about the models moving away from a blocked pattern and in cold zonality?
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