Snowman.

If we are to move on from the Easterly then we need to block to do one and not just slowly float down into Europe like the ECM, which brings a southerly draw to much of central Europe which is where we need our cold. Synoptics look great but there is just no cold and I mean -8 uppers real cold.

December 10th 2 Days before What is currently being modelled They're different box of frogs and for many apart from the highlands of Scotland it's heavy rain and gales. Doesn't sound too exciting.

Sliders and a PM airflow are different beasts entirely usually the first requires some cold in place especially in the near continent to deliver anything for the South and while NW'ly blasts are good the further N and W you go here in the SE all I get is slightly colder rain. Only thing I care about is the Jet heading South but even then I'm tired of having these rain to snow events which are gone by the next day. After almost 0 luck since 2013 it's easy to assume why many are just starting to get agitated.

V good a few shifts SW and given the time frame and how sliders behave it is entirely possible. Very happy from the ECM so far.

Looks it.

NWS mate I think that ship has sailed, we're going to have to work with what we have which is potential for trough disruption and sliders.

Trough beginning to disrupt against the block...

It's sat next to the UKMO so probably not? Who knows really.

ECM UKMO ECM looking like a stronger block? Could it be boom town?

The suspense for the 120 chart is incredible.

Today Yesterday Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board.

You can't because that is the max chart. But you can compare the previous chart which shows less cold coming from under the high due to orientation of it being slightly less favourable than its 0z output.

Hence why I said downgrade even if slight.

I believe it's due to the fact that it's over a land rather than the sea.

But it's not AS good so a downgrade if only slight. Our wiggle is so tight and with the UKMO 12z it would only get smaller. I said it was still OK still better than the GFS.

I explained my reasoning. If you was to follow on from the 0z with 12z you would notice that the block is under more pressure and the winds along the SE of the high are not straight easterly like the 0z. Good chart but way to close to the knife edge where the 0z was a lot more safer.

Compared to what it was showing this morning the high is under attack from NE a lot more. Still good just not as good as it was earlier hence the tern 'downgrade'. 0z 12z Timings are a bit off but there are still differences. The 0z had straight easterly across much of europe, 12z looks a bit sloppy.

UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

UKMO no backdown. Past three 12z with the first being the most recent.

Isn't this due to colder air being denser?

FI is at 90 hours or so. Anything after that is anyone's guess. NWS don't let yourself get hung up on op runs like the 6z just sit back and enjoy the ride.

You can take a look back at many classic Easterly and not all of them start from the get many take days to get before the colder uppers reach our shores but it's all worth it in the end.

Best part right now is that even if the ECM fails completely and we follow the GFS it still shows some really great *ahem* potential. Outcome is extremely interesting and we would be very unlucky to not get something over the coming weeks.

ECM is delivering that beasterly shortwave underneath the high heading west.

Get the block in place and the cold will follow...