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Everything posted by Snowman.
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why the 0z ECM solution was great the flow is more direct and less likely to become more SEly -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS has -8s flirting the SE at 126 already. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO not on board is a concern. Any other model and it would be fine but the UKMO is the dream killer while also the dream maker. Other than that the ECM is probably the best run I've seen since that ECM cold starts next week on Wednesday and just gets better. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very happy with 18z so far steps in the right direction to not only a perhaps colder outlook but one with less stress from all the flip flopping. 12z 18z Suddenly there is a trough over the netherlands and heights are much higher. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS takes small steps 12z 18z More vertical rather than just straight NE. Reckon tomorrow will equally be filled with surprises. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS already less energy heading north at a whopping 42 hours. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The SSW has already happened. It's affects will be felt just the timing is what is being discussed. The vortex's days are numbered, this SSW is a record breaker so rather it being a matter of IF it's a matter of WHEN. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you're wondering why their is a lack of comments on the 18z. You can just assume it's pretty s**t -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO looking really good. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
Snowman. replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Possibly the heaviest snow I have seen since 2013. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
Snowman. replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
We have snow! -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
Snowman. replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
I have a blob incoming will report in a few mins. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think most have moved on from that friend. We're now chasing the other BIGGER dragon. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
Snowman. replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Wintry mix perfectly describes this year. Had a few snow days but no real cold spell. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS runs that keep the high in the picture if you will early on re-amplify at D10 leading to an easterly wind direction while dry later on gather pace and form some rather impressive HLB, those flatter are less impressive later on. If you want to see something that causes a tingle in the nether region then look at P20 straight up would rival Nov/Dec 2010. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's likely due to a multitude of factors right now. The poor struggle of a weather nothing of real interest for 2 months then BAM! It all comes at once. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exactly this mucka when the models flipped to the cold snap ensembles showed the key with the amplification of the low exciting the US. He ho the OPs began to follow with the UKMO leading the way. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not surprised by the 18z and the day overall. The GEFS has had these 'less flat' options increasing over the past 4 suites so it was a matter of time before an OP run started showing them. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Back end of the GEFS are beginning to look interesting once again. PV is beginning to look distressed. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another one is that they're all useless due the set-up and it's better to play the waiting game. But that's boring and doesn't create drama. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mild sector less mild. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM from the 29th. Uppers included on this one too. ECM from today for the same timeframe. Not to say it's not wrong but considering there is a lot of things going on right now the models are going struggle and there is still plenty of things in the 'reliable' timeframe to keep us interested. This rollercoaster still has a long way to go. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nick would fronts or bands of snow at least moving N out of France be shown at this range? -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would like to imagine that the GFS is completely confused at this point. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shortwave running west under the high. Could provide a snow event if it makes it far enough.