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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    ECM makes an attempt but doesn't quite get there, still plenty of time for change.
  2. Snowman.
    12z is much colder later on too.
  3. Snowman.
    0z GFS is so close to being one of the best FIs but falls just too short. Anyway trend continues.
  4. Snowman.
    http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
  5. Snowman.
    Many here who have done this for much longer than I have will tell you that these things can appear in the D7 - D10 range. They are rare and hard to predict and every "failed" easterly can still be an easterly but it fails to live up to the expectation of a beast from the east. Lots of moving gears some are big like your -PNA but some are small like a trigger shortwave on the chart you showed. All part of a big machine which can fall apart if one gear doesn't fit. But my point stands i'd rather see attempts at easterlies in FI rather than a flat mess gives you a little bit more confidence that something could lurking in the shadows rather than just make belief.
  6. Snowman.
    With the track record of the past 2 years I see why but things can go right and when they do it's amazing!
  7. Snowman.
    You said yourself that easterlies in la la land never make it. I know the charts look different but it remains the same. The model picked up the low g wave pattern then as it counted down to t0 it changed. A classic reverse case is that of Feb 2009 they had PM airflow in the extended range and by T0 easterly. The weather chooses but let me ask you this would you rather see zonal mess in FI or easterlies popping up here and there in FI?
  8. Snowman.
    November 6th 2010 a D16 GFS chart. Actual But don't worry those easterlies never happen do they?
  9. Snowman.
    Snowing heavily here getting a layer of slush now.
  10. Snowman.
    More takes. Snow leading edge turning to rain after a few hours.
  11. Snowman.
    ICON take
  12. Snowman.
    Meteociel have there own app
  13. Snowman.
    IMHO if we do go this route and IF we are destined for cold then the high will build north through the UK extending N/NE. If that happens is another story it's just how if a crystal ball said "it will be cold" then that is the only way i see it happening.
  14. Snowman.
    GFS throws up a little interest but it's covered in mucus so I'd rather avoid it. ECM shows the return of a Barlett high which could possibly go down as one of the worst charts I have seen this season. Awaiting @Man With Beard clusters to see how much more were straying from the light.
  15. Snowman.
    18z has some -8 uppers appearing now.
  16. Snowman.
    Blocking over the pole in the GEFS has increased quite a bit compared to the 6z lot. Especially around Greenland. And mark the 22nd of Jan as around this time a low crosses somewhere through the UK on plenty of the members bringing snow.
  17. Snowman.
    That was a slider not shower activity.
  18. Snowman.
    That looks slidery (Is that even a term) anyway one could assume if the heights were strong enough it could force the low approaching to slider underneath engaging the cold air over Europe? All for fun at that range but may as well discuss or possibilities.
  19. Snowman.
    Omnipresent warming counting down the days.
  20. Snowman.
    Perhaps a saucy GFS FI?
  21. Snowman.
    There was blocking before that scenario along with actual cold embedded in. So the Atlantic steamroller can stay on hold for the entire winter as far as I'm concerned.
  22. Snowman.
    As soon as the 12z hits lowrez the Atlantic is pushed through but that run is so very close to a stellar cold spell.
  23. Snowman.
    I believe you mean the ECM/UKMO sir.
  24. Snowman.
    Most know this but after the years of slush we've had I think most are looking for a spell of cold weather in bane to Jan 2013 rather than the slider that happened last month.
  25. Snowman.
    I have similar fears or we have lows running through the channel but all they do is bring cold rain as the continent is mild. Another example of good synoptics but weak upper air temps seems to be the thing for this year.
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