I can't quite see the problem. They made a forecast one that was well rounded and had the highest PROBABILITY, it was wrong but that's why it's a forecast. We don't have crystal balls and magic rituals to predict the weather accurately all we have is computer models which solve large equations to predict the weather.
They among with many made a forecast that didn't come to fruition. Which is why it's a forecast not a statement.
To my honest surprise woke up to a dusting on everything bar paths and roads. Still snowing very light pellet snow could be sleety but can't actually tell.
ECM says no and continues in a theme similar to it's 0z output.
Personally not buying it unless the UKMO jumps on board, but UKMO is having none of what the ECM is offering.
UKMO for comparison, UKMO amplifies. ECM flattens.
As soon as it hits low res, yes. However models especially the GFS greatly underestimate blocks to the NE and power up the jet to blow them away. Wouldn't take much notice as the pattern for the next 2 weeks is increasingly blocked.
Lets get the block and potential cold in first before worrying about when it gets rid of it.