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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. It was wrong enough for me to wake up one morning and easterly at 96 completely vanished
  2. The most knee jerk reaction in this thread. Not needed take it somewhere else.
  3. Yes it was and UKMO went against all other models to show it happening. It also accurately predicted the failed easterly.
  4. 192 has began establishing an easterly. Cold uppers crossing norths sea low approaching SW could it be a channel low?
  5. 168 on the ECM is near boom territory cold uppers in the wings on the east side also little wind could be v cold.
  6. GEFS show somewhat of a flip instead of 3-4 runs in the cold its nearly 40/60. Not amazing but a small improvement.
  7. UKMO isn't that bad actually especially when compared to the GFS for heights in Central Eastern Europe.
  8. I can't quite see the problem. They made a forecast one that was well rounded and had the highest PROBABILITY, it was wrong but that's why it's a forecast. We don't have crystal balls and magic rituals to predict the weather accurately all we have is computer models which solve large equations to predict the weather. They among with many made a forecast that didn't come to fruition. Which is why it's a forecast not a statement.
  9. Dvorak now at 5.5 / 102kts Which makes her a Cat 3. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt17L.html
  10. She's looking very disorganized now could be ewrc coming up.
  11. Looks to be intensifying. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/flash-rbtop-long.html
  12. The rolling thunder is incredible. Been a while since a good storm has loud thunder.
  13. MO got me down for snow till 12. Changed from cloudy with rain.
  14. Pretty decent here, just amounting where snow has settled over night.
  15. Picking up a little here can actually see it now, although I do expect it to turn to rain at some point.
  16. To my honest surprise woke up to a dusting on everything bar paths and roads. Still snowing very light pellet snow could be sleety but can't actually tell.
  17. ECM says no and continues in a theme similar to it's 0z output. Personally not buying it unless the UKMO jumps on board, but UKMO is having none of what the ECM is offering. UKMO for comparison, UKMO amplifies. ECM flattens.
  18. 6z shows the high trying to loop round to Greenland. bigger forcing on the incoming Atlantic.
  19. As soon as it hits low res, yes. However models especially the GFS greatly underestimate blocks to the NE and power up the jet to blow them away. Wouldn't take much notice as the pattern for the next 2 weeks is increasingly blocked. Lets get the block and potential cold in first before worrying about when it gets rid of it.
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