Snowman.
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Everything posted by Snowman.
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Probably because of a shift north. Although I suspect it will come down too a nowcast anyway.
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Lets be clear about the scandi high. Builds at 144 still there at 288 Once you have a Scandi ridge in place, they become incredibly difficult to shift -
This is a V cold chart Still air in high pressure, ice days for many with snow showers in the SE. Jan shaping up to be a cold month.
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Unfortunately in GFS fashion it goes all over. -8s back in
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Low pressure in the Atlantic looking to stall, remember models struggle with Scandi blocks vs the Atlantic so FI is still very close.
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Actually I think its the cold air staying place longer. If the BBC graphics have anything to show then it's moved further south. Cheers to @Ben Lewis for the picture
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An upgrade!
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Was difficult to see.
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It's good to see where we have come from. Especially in the sake of the GFS which the differences are substantial. 18z now 2 days ago 18z now 2 days ago ECM now 2 days ago
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My mind draws me to the polar event, but that was gone by lunch. GFS continues to show a band working south along the east coast. Hopefully we get lucky?
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Not bad, back edge stuff but the london snow shield seems to be working
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Oh god, im unprepared for anything like this.
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No its down to the shortwave, the UKMO could get us an easterly but we're reliant on a trigger shortwave which is a thin thread to hang from over northern scotland.
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There is shortwave on the UKMO, would have to rely on it to get us cold backing west. EDIT: nick beat me too it
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ARPEGE This moves in at night too.
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Please don't do this knocker, you know exactly why there is talk of Easterly.
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The 850s are a bit warmer because of the GEM bias but -6 pretty widely I would assume, defo cold enough to snow especially at night.
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Hold up UKMO developing a 2nd feature SW embedded in cold air. Could get really interesting.
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GEFS mean sorry
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Bordering real cold NW'ly on ECM.
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Due to the limited visibility it's hard to tell but here is Jan 2013 at a similar angle.
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It can but the trend here is key. I am greatly surprised by the ECM and even more by Steve for mentioning it a few days ago it had my interest but given the time frame I didn't think much. Now its a case of back the pattern west with more disruption SE and we start getting better heights NE asking a lot but the models like to make fun of us all at times.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Snowman. replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And in all those winters there was still chances. -
As long as runs like the 6z continue to show there are still chances. Getting cold to the UK is extremely difficult and should never be as easy as ABC.
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Heh 18z 'That GFS' and what could've been. I'd rather not go there again.
