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TheBigFreeze

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Posts posted by TheBigFreeze

    Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Unfortunately it isn't half that simple, anything at the moment post say 120 hours is very unlikely to verify as currently shown by the GFS so at the moment no that wouldn't be a correct statement, look for more consistency in the future runs and hopefully falling in line with ECM or a midway point, and most importantly as a newbie if you don't understand something just read fergies posts or ask a question.

    Edit: and don't take one run as a gospel! smile.png

    Hi and thanks for your reply,

    I'm beginning to get the idea that I should take anything past say 120h with a pinch of salt, and that to compare models and look for trends, and model alignment, however i'm still at a very novice stage, and just trying to get to grips with what the models are actually showing and doing, which is why I was asking is what I stated about that model correct in what I thought it was showing, as opposed to this is what I think will happen....sorry if that wasn't very clear :)

    Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    They are coming out as we speak

    http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

    Control also brings snow to us next weekend with -10 uppers enroaching much of the UK

    @ 168

    gensnh-0-0-168.png?6

    Hi there,

    I'm new to looking at these models, and although I know its best to ignore charts from way out, but am i right in saying that after a brief warming between 228h and 300h we get real cold attacking us from the NW??? just trying to get use to looking at the models, so please be nice lol

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Simon Farrow

    Unless that post is made by a met office forecaster ( Highly Unlikely ). Who has access to more data available and has a crystal ball to hand considering the amount of disagreement at this present time. I imagine he may be pulling your leg. Hope i am wrong though. By the way this posters name was not called yamkin was it? rofl.gif

    That statement came from a site called uk weather tv under the heading "turning-much-colder-with-snow-for-some" [please remove if external site links are not allowed] I was quite interested in the model he is referring to ECMWF, and how you rate it as a model, and why it is differing so to many of the other models??

    thanks

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi there, my first time posting here, been reading and looking at the different models and trying to come to terms with the terminology, I was just reading this on another site "As the warmer air wins it will warm up for a day two before the next attack of cold air comes from the East, now the latest models show a beast from the East (the ECMWF which is a European weather model is far superior than other models due to the higher resolution of it’s forecasting which makes it much more accurate).

    This particular model want’s to bring widespread snowfall and blizzard conditions across the UK with overnight temperatures down to -18c!" and was just wondering what your thoughts are on this model and the outlook it is forecasting...many thanks Simon

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