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Ravelin

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Everything posted by Ravelin

  1. I know that XC weather can be a bit of a joke, but 2 days out its generally not too far off. I just don't quite buy this though, I think it'll be mainly rain into Monday. If its correct though I'll be pleasantly surprised.
  2. Anyone's guess really from what I can see, but more likely the latter than the former? Possibly some snow overnight tonight, followed by a brief warm up, then significant precipitation Sun into Mon that could be anything from all rain, all snow, or anything in between? Gloriously sunny morning with maybe just the lightest of dustings overnight, or could just be frost. Looking to stay cold most of this week too, at least in the NE.
  3. Must have caught the same shower here too. Not quite as cold as the last few nights, overnight low of -3.2C. GFS this morning still hasn't a clue what will happen Sun into Mon with a 15c spread in 850s just 3 days away. Operational consistently near the top of the pack the last few runs though.
  4. Overnight low of - 7.4C here and still lots of -8 and below showing in local area. Still a lot of uncertainty for Sunday, with ECM and GFS both bringing milder 850s well north into Scotland, but GEM and UKMO keeping most of Scotland in the colder air. Got to be resolved soon surely. Not got time to post charts, got to get to work.
  5. In central belt and borders yes, for us further north no, as it stays further south yet again. Between the GFS 12Z and 18Z I've gone from a decent dumping of snow Sun/Mon to a bit of light rain. I'd also be rather worried about these 850s on Monday, can't see that staying as snow for long, even hitting cold air. That really would have been top end of the assemblies on the 12Z though, so far from settled yet. Also now showing a 30cm+ pasting on Wed/Thu for me, but always 'jam tomorrow'.
  6. Quite a spread on the GFS 850s for Sunday, until that's cleared up I'm not surprised that any precipitation varies from cold rain to proper snow. Unusual for there to be such a spread just 4 days out.
  7. Yep it's a chilly start, -7.6C outside with wall to wall blue skies. I'm beginning to worry that the Sunday/Monday system is trending too far south for us in the NE, just like the Fri one has done. Both GFS and ECM now keeping us very cold right through to the middle of next week, but largely dry.
  8. Closest I can get you is Keith. Wife say when she got there this morning they'd had less overnight than here, so maybe 4 or 5cm. Snowed frequently during the rest of the day and she'd to clear a bit more than that off the car before driving home. Keith does sit a bit higher though and tends to catch and retain snow more than Elgin in general. When I was working up that way a few years back there could be snow in Keith and virtually nothing in Elgin.
  9. Yep, best bet is now looking like Sunday or Monday, but could be marginal snow to rain event. Until then we'll just have to 'enjoy' the cold temps, maxed out at -0.7C here, which is impressive given its March and its been sunny most of the day. Currently -1.9C and on the down slope. Snow has held up well where it was deeper, especially where shaded from the sun.
  10. Somehow, despite the southward shift, GFS 6Z (XC Weather) still has me getting round 10cm Friday morning, then another 35cm+ Sunday night into Monday morning. We'll see. Climbed up to a heady high of -0.9C so far today, but feels far, far warmer than that out in the sun.
  11. Aberdeenshire council used to have a policy that said that if your school was closed due to adverse weather you had to contact your local school(s) and offer your services. Before she moved authorities my wife did that at least once, but If they still have that policy they certainly don't promote it amongst their teaching staff these days. It may even have applied to their employees in other services too. Much easier just to close now, it's the uncertainty, can't have a school full of kids (who live closer) and virtually no staff (who tend to have to commute).
  12. Very much depends where the school staff travel from. Worst of the weather was to the East, for example my boss travels early from Aberdeen to Westhill. She was in the car for 2hrs this morning and I don't think she even got outwith the bounds of Aberdeen. Fubar news is littered with reports of roads closed, mainly blocked by stuck lorries or busses. Incidentally I made a suggestion via various local politicians that Aberdeenshire Council consider a policy of actively favouring employing staff who live nearer schools, and/or setting up a 'swap database' for people who'd prefer working nearer where they live. Partially for resilience reasons in adverse weather, mainly for the impact on CO2 outputs from 'unnecessary' car travel. I could cycle to the nearest secondary school yet I commute nearly 50 miles every day, and there'll be teachers at the nearest school that do the same in the opposite direction. A couple of the local councillors/MSPs did follow up on it and asked the council what their policy towards that would be. The response was that they wouldn't consider it because they felt that having a policy of preferring to employ staff based on their proximity to their workplace could potentially fall foul of employment legislation. They didn't even seem to acknowledge the possibility of teachers swapping schools voluntarily. After a few emails back and forth I gave up. Really, were screwed on climate change if we don't get more radical in how we react to try to avoid it.
  13. Measured 4cm on driveway outside garage door before clearing it, but that must have been sheltered as at least twice as deep nearer the road. Nice and sunny now, and working from home as school closed.
  14. Still a bit dark for a decent photo but certainly looking like winter here this morning. Just a few miles west of @Scepticalbut I'd say its a bit more than his 1 or 2cm. I'll find out in a bit when we un mothball the snow shovels. Currently -2.4C
  15. Got home to find a decent covering of snow that certainly wasn't there this morning. Most hills surrounding Alford looking white at least part way up, and selected spots on the commute have obviously caught heavier showers through the day than others. Currently - 1.0C, dp - 1.8C, and snowing again.
  16. Heavy shower of hail/graupel, followed by more moderate snow, turned Westhill white for a bit, but melting now I think. The extent and wording of that MetO warning smack of "we know somewhere is like to get clobbered, but not sure where or how bad. Watch this space".
  17. Bank, bank, bank, bank......... In reality the models are all over the place and the GFS i.e. XC Weather, has really downgraded any snow chances in my locality for this week. MetO app would make it look as if we'll get a lot of snow today and into tomorrow, with lots of 'black cloud double snow' symbols, but if we get anything more than a cm or two lying I'll be surprised and delighted. It was snowing moderately when I left for work this morning, with a covering of snow on the windscreen but not frozen, with showers of varying composition on the drive to Westhill.
  18. I appear to have got what I expected, it may even be frozen onto the windscreen if I'm unlucky. Currently 1.3C and snowing, but far too wet for snow of this intensity to stay frozen once it lands.
  19. Even at 200m, with a temp of 1.2C and dew point 0.5C, it appears to be no more than cold rain. I suspect I'll wake up to no more than some slumped sleet on the car windscreen in the morning.
  20. Light mix of rain and snow just up the hill from me when I was walking the dog up there around 3pm. Currently 2.6C according to the local weather station. Not sure what to make of the coming week as the forecasts don't quite match the warnings, certainly for snow anyway. It'll be cold, that I am sure of.
  21. It'll change 4 times a day, with each GFS run, right up until the day anyway. My current version is not exactly a snowy nirvana, but it's bitterly cold, especially for March.
  22. Now this is a proper forecast... Although up to now its been showing snow next week its been a lot less, so not counting my chickens just yet.
  23. Missed the aurora on Sunday night too, which was very annoying, and last night was far too cloudy. Looking ahead, I'll take back what I said the other day, next week is looking potentially quite chilly after all. Cold enough for some snow in places, but not expecting any of us to be digging ourselves out.
  24. Beginning to agree with them, not that I've bothered looking in the MAD thread recently. A few days ago it was looking as if it could have gone either way, cold or meh, but the latter increasingly looks as if it'll win out. Nice day outside, only 5.5C but feels warmer in the sun as there's little wind.
  25. I think it'd keep all of us happy to have a cold, snowy start to March then a rapid warm up and a decent spring. I'd rather not just have the current weather drag on. Talking of which, decent start to the day but a very blustery commute home through heavy showers of sleety rain with the car saying 3C.
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