Ravelin

Looks at date... 21st Nov... it's going to be a long winter on the MOD thread. All this 'which model won' is tiring and pointless. Over the course of time each will perform better than the others at different times, each has its biases. Most of us recognise the ECM can have a tendency to be too flat at times, and the GFS a tendency to be too amplified, at least concerning our little corner of the globe. We also see patterns of modelled northerlies across the UK adjust east as they get closer, it happens time and time again. All the main models are useful if you look at them as different pieces of a larger jigsaw. The knee jerk reactions suggesting that we discount the GFS from now to eternity, for example, because it 'got it wrong' this time (not that I agree it did) , would be akin to trying to do the jigsaw with a substantial portion of the pieces missing.

I tested +ve for Covid this morning despite thinking I only had a mildish cold the last couple of days. Genuinely shocked to find out that means I'm persona non grata at work for the rest of the week. Oh well, at least that means I can enjoy some fresh air, get the garden tidied up etc... looks outside.... oh bugger. Looking like I'm stuck inside reading the bickering going on already in the MOD thread. Today so far.. high of 9.1C around noon but then rain started and temp had dropped off to 6.9C, pretty misty even before the rain (3mm so far) kicked in anyway.

ECM 12Z today came much more on board with next weekend's cold spell, The predicted conditions at ground level from the GFS 12Z, which of course will change with every run between now and Friday, Even the BBC Weather presenter at lunchtime mentioned it turning potentially cold, even mentioned snow for some. They did say though there was still "much uncertainty". If it happens it's only ever likely to be a brief early reminder that winter is approaching, form horse for Dec appears to be mild and wet.

GFS has firmed up on a cold incursion end of the coming week, with pretty much all it's ensemblies being on board, The ECM however, although showing a cool down as well, is much less bullish. A good 5C warmer on the 850s for the same period, and much more spread. Time will tell which is right, if either is.

OK, I'll be the first yo post this and risk jinxing this, but it's been consistently showing up for days now... ECM not quite as good, but both models showing a mild spell mid next week followed by a colder plunge next weekend. Possibly cold enough for at least some of us to be staring out of the window looking for you know what. It's not been too bad a week here, variable, but certainly feeling chilly at times with a good frost around yesterday. I certainly had to scrape the car, and on my drive home from work there looked like patches of frost in shaded areas that had survived all day. Quite misty at times too.

Pelting it down when I left work around 4pm in Westhill, which made for a truly awful drive home. Lots of standing water on the roads between Westhill and Tillyfourie, but not too bad after that. Not the worse flooding I've seen in recent weeks, but at least then you could see it. Tonight in the continuing rain and dark you were right on top of the deep puddles before you had time to see them. Give me cold, bright and frosty any time over this muck.

Both ECM and GFS forecasts have our area largely between 0C and 8C as far out as the forecast currently goes. Wife's new car got a full set of all season fitted this week as we both tend to run those all year round now. Currently on the A90 heading south to visit oldest son in Hexham for the weekend. Lovely day, sunny with very little cloud around. 9Cjust north of Brechin.

Started the day at around 1C and a thickly frosted car, but easy scrape variety thankfully. As above, a sunny day with a max of 5.9C, now just touched 0C so likely another scraping session in the morning.

Took a chance and ran up to the top of the road over Sui Hill with the car for a clearer view to the north. Just enough cloud around that even although you could tell there was an aurora ongoing it was masking it enough for it not to really have been worth the effort unfortunately.

Blimey, not sure I've seen one this strong... Been outside for a look but the high cloud that's been around most of the day means I can't see, any obvious aurora. Can only see a couple of stars through gaps in the cloud and they are directly above. Took a walk down Glen Tanar early afternoon with the dog and some friends, very pleasant. Nice to be out for a change after all the rain, and the sun made an appearance for most of the time we were out too.

Finally it appears to have stopped raining, and with the forecast being largely dry for the next 2 days I expect our monthly total to end at around the current 264mm. I think that's approaching 3 times the average for Oct. In other news, 5 more field mice ready to be relocated this morning.

At the moment it certainly seems to be, but it'll be interesting to see what happens as winter proper approaches. Sods Law will dictate a return to South Westerlies then. 14mm of rain so far today, which is what we had for the whole of yesterday.

Last night's mouse haul, 4 from 4 traps... All are now trying to find new homes in the woods at the top of Sui Hill, relatively dry where we released them. Four more traps arriving today so we'll see what tomorrows count is. Altrasonic repellers will arrive Tue I think, which will hopefully mean not having to keep checking traps daily. Still raining, misty, windy. Might see the sun tomorrow if forecast is correct, for all the good it'll do since I'll be back at work, and clocks have gone back too.

We appear to have been suffering a very strange phenomenon, which I'm attributing to the very wet October. What is it? Mice. On thursday I discovered, due to a lack of internet connection on my PC, that mice had chewed 2 ethernet cables and the 12v supply cable to an ethernet switch in the attic. Saturday we discovered a very neat round hole in a large bag of dog food in the garage, and droppings in some of the lower cupboards in the motorhome on the driveway. I know we have mice around, and there were always droppings in the attic, but this is the first time they've done any noticeable damage. I even watched once as I stood at the workbench in the garage as a vole scurried in through the garage door, across the length of the garage to the back, picked up some spilt bird seed, and scurried back out, all in boad daylight. Never have we ever had mice in the motorhome though. Now I wouldn't mind them seeking somewhere dry and warm if they'd only behave, but as they won't there are traps now down, with electronic repellers on order too. Anything caught will be released well up the hill, although I will feel somewhat sorry for them given the weather. Another 14mm of rain here today, 242mm for Oct so far.

ECM forecast for the coming week here is just depressing. Hibernation is looking more and more attractive. That's on top of the 13mm of rain so far today, added to the over 200mm so far for Oct.

Another largely grey, misty and drizzle laden day, with a burst of heavier rain between 6pm and 8pm. Local amateur weather station up the road has 6.6mm for the day and just short of 214mm of rain for Oct so far. It'll be interesting to see what we have in accumulated precipitation at the end of the month, will official figures for some places will be record breaking?

Aye, only just over 6mm of rain here today but it felt much wetter, from start to finish. Low of 6.4C and high of 7.6C under the grey skies.

Made it home, decided in the end it was easier to go via Braemar and the A93. You'd hardly think there had been a storm going that way, just a few odd patches of water on the roads. Very nice drive in the end, as these photos from either side of the Glenshee ski center show. Chainsaw will need to be brought into action again in the garden. The big cherry tree that has survived all other storms in the last few years completely unscathed has at least three large branches snapped and hanging down. Should all be low enough for me to finish the job of bringing them down myself, in stages, with a ladder. Shame though.

A bit damp in central Scotland this morning but cleared to sunny spells as the day went on, so should be clearing further north too hopefully. We'll make an attempt to get home tomorrow, but if A90 is still closed we'll need to decide between coast road from Dundee up to Stonehaven, or head the A9/A96 way.

Probably a mouse or vole burrow that's become 'plumbing' due to all the rain. Happens in part of our garden, where there's a slope with burrow holes that are normally hidden.

Fairly gusty around Airdrie today, especially compared to yesterday, with occasional showers, but nothing heavy or prolonged. Dog walk along the reservoir near Caldercruix this morning could be classed as 'bracing'. Horrendous what Angus and parts of Dundee have been getting, and that new red warning for Saturday is worrying. Aberdeenshire seems to have largely faired ok so far it seems.

Luckily we'll have some flexibility regards travelling back home as that's both red rain and amber wind warnings along much of our route now. Probably leave travelling until Sunday to let the clear up take place, as I'm assuming A90 will be under water in the usual places. Off to Lochmaben in a bit for 2 nights, then Airdrie for another couple, neither journey should be troublesome, hopefully, and both relatively short.

We'll be travelling back up to Aberdeenshire, probably Saturday, after stopping off at my parents outside Airdrie. Also keeping a close eye on the forecast rain as a result. Wind might also be a factor for us with the motorhome as it makes for a very nervous journey, but we could hold off until Sunday if needed.

Frosty start in Kirkcudbright too, at least on the cars.

Had to scrape the car windscreen this morning, first time this Autumn. Unfortunately I was stuck in work all day so no chance to enjoy the weather, school holidays start tomorrow though, woohoo. Off down to Dumfries and Galloway with the motorhome first week, back home to catch up on all the outstanding jobs the second week.