Ravelin

You can see from this why the ECM 0Z run was much favoured by the MOD squad... Rather chilly, but not exactly going to be buried in snow. Currently a sunny 3.3C, which might be as warm as we see for a while.

2.1C here currently, calm, broken cloud, 1.5mm over overnight rain making everything look damp. Not quite sure why it's all sweetness and light in the MOD thread at the moment. Yes it's looking like a cool week, but mainly dry with only an outside chance of snow?

Not a million miles away from what the GFS is showing at the same time though. As I said the other day, it's all very intriguing.

And..... bubbles galore floating around unpopped this morning again as 0Z runs look better. It's hilarious. Even still, I'd better not post a picture of my dusting of snow in there this morning or someone will have a fit. Not that it's unusual for late Nov here. Currently 0.7C and yes, a little snow lying in places from overnight showers, mainly cloudless by the looks of it and doesn't seem too windy.

Much bigger market in Germany, a legal requirement to have winter tyres on during certain months too, so thier sales will be huge compared to most UK tyre wholesalers. Had a look at my tyres the other day and I'm going to need a new set fairly soon, still legal but 2 yrs old and tread getting lower than perhaps optimal for an Aberdeenshire winter. Shoukd make it to the Xmas hols when I'll have more time to sort it out. Temperature here currently 3.5C with a 0.6C dewpoint, down from a high of 12.2 in the early hours. Certainly felt a lot colder outside this afternoon than yesterday, tomorrow should feel even colder.

Down from 12.2C to 7.4C here so far, winds dropping after a breezy night, not a lot of cloud around. Looking forward to potentially seeing a flurry or two of light snow tomorrow if forecasts are right. Not getting carried away with the MOD thread though, in either direction. Best I can say is that I'm intrigued at what the models are showing, but far from the point of being excited. Likely looking cooler for a while, but doubting it'll be snowy in the foreseeable, but hopefully that will come eventually.

I've absolutely no clue what to make of any of the weather models in the last day or two, there is no making sense of it. Best thing to do in this situation, when chaos reigns, both in the models and the MOD thread, is to sit back quietly and watch, possibly hiding behind a cushion, 1970s Dr Who style as a kid. @dryfieDon't give up all together, just stay out of the MOD thread and hang out here. If anything particularly exciting pops up we'll be all over it, without the southern bias. Most of us have been bitten by the MOD thread and had a slap or two on the wrist as a result (some more than others, not naming names ).

It's a real 'car crash' in there this morning. Meanwhile in the real world, currently 3.7C, calm, and with the cloud looking broken enough that I'll likely be able to see the sun once it gets above the horizon.

Looks at date... 21st Nov... it's going to be a long winter on the MOD thread. All this 'which model won' is tiring and pointless. Over the course of time each will perform better than the others at different times, each has its biases. Most of us recognise the ECM can have a tendency to be too flat at times, and the GFS a tendency to be too amplified, at least concerning our little corner of the globe. We also see patterns of modelled northerlies across the UK adjust east as they get closer, it happens time and time again. All the main models are useful if you look at them as different pieces of a larger jigsaw. The knee jerk reactions suggesting that we discount the GFS from now to eternity, for example, because it 'got it wrong' this time (not that I agree it did) , would be akin to trying to do the jigsaw with a substantial portion of the pieces missing.

I tested +ve for Covid this morning despite thinking I only had a mildish cold the last couple of days. Genuinely shocked to find out that means I'm persona non grata at work for the rest of the week. Oh well, at least that means I can enjoy some fresh air, get the garden tidied up etc... looks outside.... oh bugger. Looking like I'm stuck inside reading the bickering going on already in the MOD thread. Today so far.. high of 9.1C around noon but then rain started and temp had dropped off to 6.9C, pretty misty even before the rain (3mm so far) kicked in anyway.

ECM 12Z today came much more on board with next weekend's cold spell, The predicted conditions at ground level from the GFS 12Z, which of course will change with every run between now and Friday, Even the BBC Weather presenter at lunchtime mentioned it turning potentially cold, even mentioned snow for some. They did say though there was still "much uncertainty". If it happens it's only ever likely to be a brief early reminder that winter is approaching, form horse for Dec appears to be mild and wet.

GFS has firmed up on a cold incursion end of the coming week, with pretty much all it's ensemblies being on board, The ECM however, although showing a cool down as well, is much less bullish. A good 5C warmer on the 850s for the same period, and much more spread. Time will tell which is right, if either is.

OK, I'll be the first yo post this and risk jinxing this, but it's been consistently showing up for days now... ECM not quite as good, but both models showing a mild spell mid next week followed by a colder plunge next weekend. Possibly cold enough for at least some of us to be staring out of the window looking for you know what. It's not been too bad a week here, variable, but certainly feeling chilly at times with a good frost around yesterday. I certainly had to scrape the car, and on my drive home from work there looked like patches of frost in shaded areas that had survived all day. Quite misty at times too.

Pelting it down when I left work around 4pm in Westhill, which made for a truly awful drive home. Lots of standing water on the roads between Westhill and Tillyfourie, but not too bad after that. Not the worse flooding I've seen in recent weeks, but at least then you could see it. Tonight in the continuing rain and dark you were right on top of the deep puddles before you had time to see them. Give me cold, bright and frosty any time over this muck.

Both ECM and GFS forecasts have our area largely between 0C and 8C as far out as the forecast currently goes. Wife's new car got a full set of all season fitted this week as we both tend to run those all year round now. Currently on the A90 heading south to visit oldest son in Hexham for the weekend. Lovely day, sunny with very little cloud around. 9Cjust north of Brechin.

Started the day at around 1C and a thickly frosted car, but easy scrape variety thankfully. As above, a sunny day with a max of 5.9C, now just touched 0C so likely another scraping session in the morning.

Took a chance and ran up to the top of the road over Sui Hill with the car for a clearer view to the north. Just enough cloud around that even although you could tell there was an aurora ongoing it was masking it enough for it not to really have been worth the effort unfortunately.

Blimey, not sure I've seen one this strong... Been outside for a look but the high cloud that's been around most of the day means I can't see, any obvious aurora. Can only see a couple of stars through gaps in the cloud and they are directly above. Took a walk down Glen Tanar early afternoon with the dog and some friends, very pleasant. Nice to be out for a change after all the rain, and the sun made an appearance for most of the time we were out too.

Finally it appears to have stopped raining, and with the forecast being largely dry for the next 2 days I expect our monthly total to end at around the current 264mm. I think that's approaching 3 times the average for Oct. In other news, 5 more field mice ready to be relocated this morning.

At the moment it certainly seems to be, but it'll be interesting to see what happens as winter proper approaches. Sods Law will dictate a return to South Westerlies then. 14mm of rain so far today, which is what we had for the whole of yesterday.

Last night's mouse haul, 4 from 4 traps... All are now trying to find new homes in the woods at the top of Sui Hill, relatively dry where we released them. Four more traps arriving today so we'll see what tomorrows count is. Altrasonic repellers will arrive Tue I think, which will hopefully mean not having to keep checking traps daily. Still raining, misty, windy. Might see the sun tomorrow if forecast is correct, for all the good it'll do since I'll be back at work, and clocks have gone back too.

We appear to have been suffering a very strange phenomenon, which I'm attributing to the very wet October. What is it? Mice. On thursday I discovered, due to a lack of internet connection on my PC, that mice had chewed 2 ethernet cables and the 12v supply cable to an ethernet switch in the attic. Saturday we discovered a very neat round hole in a large bag of dog food in the garage, and droppings in some of the lower cupboards in the motorhome on the driveway. I know we have mice around, and there were always droppings in the attic, but this is the first time they've done any noticeable damage. I even watched once as I stood at the workbench in the garage as a vole scurried in through the garage door, across the length of the garage to the back, picked up some spilt bird seed, and scurried back out, all in boad daylight. Never have we ever had mice in the motorhome though. Now I wouldn't mind them seeking somewhere dry and warm if they'd only behave, but as they won't there are traps now down, with electronic repellers on order too. Anything caught will be released well up the hill, although I will feel somewhat sorry for them given the weather. Another 14mm of rain here today, 242mm for Oct so far.

ECM forecast for the coming week here is just depressing. Hibernation is looking more and more attractive. That's on top of the 13mm of rain so far today, added to the over 200mm so far for Oct.

Another largely grey, misty and drizzle laden day, with a burst of heavier rain between 6pm and 8pm. Local amateur weather station up the road has 6.6mm for the day and just short of 214mm of rain for Oct so far. It'll be interesting to see what we have in accumulated precipitation at the end of the month, will official figures for some places will be record breaking?

Aye, only just over 6mm of rain here today but it felt much wetter, from start to finish. Low of 6.4C and high of 7.6C under the grey skies.