BLAST FROM THE PAST

TWO are jumping on board now too, they do NOT anticipate any 100f days this summer either....what some of us have been saying for sometime now??!! Also heard on news and read that a mega tropical storm/hurricane season is expected this year...wonder what that will do to our summer? BFTP

Carinth It seems to be ongoing this overall coldness on Greenland. Climatically a very important area and as a betting man I would go for Greenland to remain below average overall over the approaching months [i read that NASA had reported that it has been gradually cooling over the last 20 years]. I see no reason for it to change. BFTP

As ever the weather is proving very interesting. My CET prediction was 10.9 c which is quite cool! I based this on the fact that we would see a shortlived warm beginning then a pretty cool middle two weeks with very warm last week. Now the warm start was warmer overall and longer than expected. However, this cool period will be pretty cool and I now anticipate that this will carry through to the end of the month. I remember reading that the METO experimental prediction was that May could be a slow as 2c below average. My timings are out but unfortunately I do see what we got now is the next fortnight more or less accounted for. What the CET will be? I believe sub 12 is very feasible and this weekend will do some damage to the current stats but early next week I reckon a lot of damage will be done [mustn't take runs as gospel as there will be tweaking] but it looks like it is set to be very miserable and generally very cool. I have just come in from the rain and car therm shows 14.5c where I am today, a drop of 1.5c since 11am....miserable. A post from Carinthian recently for me sums it up perfectly and does look set to be the case late this weekend and on hI all, Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles. C If you now look at 06z for example....looking good BFTP

Steve Great post with very good reasoning and generally I pretty much fully agree ie slow start. no record breaking heat, overall warmer than average, stable and warm latter part. I must admit the particular cold building/remaining over Greenland leads me to feel that the GHP IS likely to be a main feature for the 1st half of summer which will account for poor start. Oh and for the latter part of summer particular thunderstorm activity first half of August and a stonker September :blink: BFTP

Hi West I'll give it a go. On the face of it I agree it does not look good but IMO is not displaying the whole picture. One can mention sea ice movement but that doesn't explain it. The waters have warmed hence the melting of the sea ice but the evidence on tha continental glacier of Greenland is different and the continent of Greenland is cooling and still is [NASA recordings over past 20 years]. Also the temperature in the arctic is at the same level as 1938 but there is much less sea ice...ocean warming? I believe that we have recently (Feb 2005) undergone a long term synoptic switch in the northern Hemisphere which will see a difference start to kick in temps globally over the next few years. With solar minimums approaching it is anticipated in certain scientific circles that it will be obvious by 2015 and maybe as early as 2012 that we will be experiencing global cooling. Time will tell and as I said elsewhere 20years of air temp measurements have shown ZERO increase globally and one area I will be watching closely regards for now BFTP

Very interesting Mr data. It will be interesting to see how this develops, my summer LRF using my method suggests the same re August and also a very warm September notably so at beginning and the end going into October....where records will be under threat for that time of year. BFTP

Sorry for being a bit picky but that is a whole week of cooler easeterlies Anyway for the record I warmth won't return before 20th after this weekend so I am going for 2/3 cool. BFTP

SB I think there is a delay in the SST and pressure set up? Indications I have in my forecast method and what the mid April SST prognosed is LP over Iberia with HP to our northeast. We are likely to see a synoptic setup dreamed of by cold lovers from say next weekend onwards. I think it will keep us in cool spell until the potential se/south winds for last week BFTP

8.7c NOT LOOKING BAD THEN???? :blink: BFTP

Yep, thanks Pete! :blink: BFTP

I'll add caveat that last 10 days in my LRF is to produce first 'summer' warmth and if SE wind sets in then 13c possible. BFTP

West I won't throw it out but will mention they are under scrutiny due to the effect of urban growth and locations of therms'. Glad you're not uncharitable as I did cover my point in one of the posts :lol: that this air temp method has been cited by AGW lobbyists as the method that will indisputably prove it due to its alleged infallible accuracy. I watch and monitor to see developments over the coming decades? :lol: BFTP

After a very nice start I think we could be dominated by easterly/ne'ly set up which will bring a generally grey cool set up but I think a warm spell will set in around last week to 10 days and this will lift the CET somewhat. I think I'll go for below average and a 10.9C for me. BFTP

WIB Maybe I should have added that this type of measurement is one to monitor over coming decades to see how temperatures change or not. Roger, very interesting post and a big further addition to try and help understand what is going on. I for one did not know that, cheers. Pete, there you go again chucking one in :lol: BFTP

WIB Firstly good to see you back and welcome. I did say air temps have not risen for 20 years and all the checking I have done I found no dispute to this, surface temps may have but the recording is possibly not as accurate as could be and air temp measurements have been cited even by the warmist lobby as the indisputable argument for warming/rapid warming, it is not responding! I believe honestly that some warming has occurred but I go down the line that it is ocean warming because the seas have warmed, maybe the surface temps too but air temps not. The temp in the arctic (air temp) 2004/5 is measured as the same as in 1938 but the sea ice is less and this despite the cooling in the mid 20th century. Ablation/sublimation have been cited as reasons but I don't buy it simply because the ice melt seems to be sea ice...and that tells me that the seas are warmer. Kilimanjaro's glacier IMO is retreating because of lack of precipitation [East Africa has ben in a drought for some years] and the accelerated retreat of recent years is cited as GW. IMO sublimation is valid here. Antarctica CONTINENTAL ice is thickening, so is Greenland and any advance IMO is due to this...more snow, more thickness and then advancement... not because the main glacier is melting below and lubricating movement, this would suggest thinning but it isn't. NASA have recorded Greenland temps falling for 20 years...so how is the main glacier melting? Many Alpine glaciers have shown retreat but we remember the many snowless pictures of the 90s (sublimation?), if the snow continues like it has for the last 3-4 years what will the measurements be say in another 5 years? Time will tell but I don't buy it yet. During an ice age [controversial this] vegetation and particularly forestation was an 8th in size compared to now even with all the chopping down we're doing as its either glacation or desert as in 18000 years ago...forests and vegetation don't prevent warming they grow as CO2 increases. However i don't like what's happening down there. I don't see any proven unprecedented warming for the reasons I have cited, I still at present see cycles, yes I agree we are warming but not unprecedntly. Remember and this is an important quote the chief scientist advising on GW to the government stated 'GW may well now be inevitable'....excuse me but I thought the view was we are in GW and it was manmade? BFTP

Pete Yes records are not fail safe, but the recent air temp measurements used over past 20 years are...and there has been ZERO change in temperature...no warm up no cooldown nothing. As regards to quoting cold occurences...it is relevant, 1,000,000 sq KM of Russia had double its snowfall last winter and experienced exceptional cold. This explains why the US had a warmer than average. Rare that they both experience intense cold at same time. 5th warmest is 4 from being the warmest...if global warming was controlling and we were still warming then why only 5th warmest? Halocene period was at least as warmif not warmer than now BFTP

Meto R u WIB renamed? BFTP

Meto Re North America having one of its warmest winters on record, yes but from how far back? We know not very far also records were widely broken for cold in Siberia/ Russia...its what they call the bath tub phenomena. Both landmasses will not be bitterly cold unless in advanced glaciation generally. When North America had bitter cold Russia/Siberia didn't. Signs have been for warming but not since 1998...we have to see what the next few years bring and for increasing speed...sorry that doesn't stand up either...0.5C over 100years [surface temps] and air temps over last 20years have shown zero change and this is the proposed best way to measure and prove global warming according to the warmist lobbyists! As you pointed out people have a tendency to take isolated events...it is a global issue. BFTP

Spring for me is Daffodils and tree blossom, not in Feb as in recent past years. A lovely time of year with gradual warmth so I can acclimatise . I don't like real heat in the UK as it is invariably humid and very uncomfortable, 25/26C perfect temp in summer calm and clear with low humidity Sept is my favourite non winter month with some lovely late summer warmth and cool evenings. I don't mind westerlies in October and Nov as long as it brings gales and lashing rain. Bitter easterlies to follow BFTP

Sorry folks That should have read 16+ METRES since October. Also snowfall doubled in area east of Urals about million sq Km in area. I think someone mentioned that slightly warmer temps may/will increase snowfall in areas 'prone' to snow. Will keep my thoughts for a while but just to say snowcover has an important role and there are many signs/indications that it is increasing. Also 0.5c surface warming in 100years is not unprecedented BFTP :blush:

Just to update...it is a record at mammoth and they are extending their ski season...to 4th July? BFTP

Pete I am not denying the world has warmed...it has on the surface. Air temps have shown no rise over last 20 years. I don't believe it is by us. Some good posting going on here (SF, TWS etc). The global warming lobby said the most accurate measure of climate change would be air temperatures. For the past 20 years or more, air temperatures have been measured with extreme accuracy. They show no warming whatsoever. Surface temperatures are much less reliable since the recording stations are often encroached on by expanding cities, which warm the local environment. The curve most often used by the global warmers is one showing surface temperatures rising by about half a degree in the past 100 years. BFTP

Just for fun, has anyone seen the snow depths in the USA? Mammoth 6 metres, Squaw valley 6 metres.....all the years I've been on the ski club I've seen 4/4.5 metre depth but that is a hell of a lot of snow? Is this what DR Robert FOX is talking about?? :lol: BFTP

Quote Professor Robert CARTER Measurements from ground-based thermometers and independently from satellite and weather balloon sensors all agree (i) that a minor warming trend of a few tenths of a degree occurred during the last two decades of the 20th century, and (ii) that that trend has now flattened out. Such rates fall comfortably within the multi-decadal warming and cooling rates of up to 3 degrees/century that occur commonly in the recent geological past. Ice core data from Greenland, and other geological data, show also that the magnitude of the late-20th-century warming peak has been nearly matched or exceeded many times during climatic cycling in both the recent and deep geological past. Thus neither the rate nor the magnitude of late 20th century warming can yet be shown to be in any way unusual This is why for example there are sceptics to man made GW. There are many professors and scientists who do NOT believe that we are warming the planet...neither do I :lol: BFTP

I think my 8.7C is looking good :lol: BFTP