BLAST FROM THE PAST

Ta Rollo BFTP

We will see BFTP

SP It is important of note as mentioned by some that the sea ice coverage has rapidly increased and are back to normal levels. Bearing in mind the record sea ice minima this is indeed an important event. I said back in early August that i fully expect sea ice to fully reform in the Arctic...Steve MURR I believe commented on my 'brave' call, however, I was right. The only difference is that it has happened a bit quicker than i thought. The Arctic must be building some serious cold up there, those pictures in the papers of the 'poor' polar bears were utter warmist nonsense. When thiose cold shots come down they will be very potent. Be glad you are not in the NE USA this winter as I believe record cold events will occur there this winter. When I posted on the 'other' site last autumn I stated that last winter would be transitional and the synoptic pattern would change. I believe we have entered a new phase and a longer term pattern that will see a gradual cooling trend. My statement re this winter was that I felt Feb might be cold enough to offset the winter CET. I am changing that to 'it will offset the CET for winter'. Two reasons are that 1 I believe it will be a very cold month 2 The colder spells we will get in Jan will be colder than 1st thought thus the CET won't be as high as first thought by the time we get to Feb. There will be a big shock tio some people this winter in that we will get periods of 10days to 2weeks where it will be cold enough for snow to be lying in lowland UK... As regards to the SSTs I say if they are as important as some people suggest then the current state is very good and improving. Even with the long southerly spell we experienced the SSTs to our north were totally unaffected. regards BFTP

Roger Keep it up this is good stuff and will definitely rapidly expand my knowledge on 'outside' influences on our climate/weather. regards BFTP

Opposite to EL NINO, hope you know what EL NINO is?! BFTP

Great temps, all on course BFTP

SP Synoptics...its all increasing the chances...remember 85 BFTP

Great, wish i could spend a winter in Reykjavik! cheers WBSH and Rollo this is very interesting and Nov developments might be an eye opener. BFTP

Rollo You too until end of Nov? BFTP

WBSH Can you keep adding NORD in too BFTP

Ian Caution indeed however this winter will be different. Feb still the month. Dec looks like being wrong side of block BFTP

John Steve MURR mentioned the other day that he is following a forecast that the next real phase of negative NAO is last day of Nov and first week of Dec...maybe thats what they are picking up on. I believe that cold blast will miss us (I believe it will arrive) but only really affect Europe. As I said Dec will be frustrating...so near so far. BFTP

WBSH This has been holding good all month...there was a blip but it was just that. I can't see anything other than further temp falls...it all bodes well as the HP even after getting slammed readily pounces back within no tome at all. Are you keep this going through Nov too as I believe that will be a very interesting and crucial month up there. BFTP

WBSH Where are the last 2 days...missing your posts BFTP

Peter Excellently put...everyone should understand that. BFTP

Relax That is nothing of note and of irrelevance. If it stays like that for weeks then be concerned. BFTP

Rollo/WBSH This is fascinating stuff. It is interesting to note that although the arctic has warmed GREENLAND has cooled by average of 0.6C over the last 20years...and looks like further cooling is occurring. I know I will get some people trying to rebuke this saying that the Greenland glacier is melting BUT it is not the case...the measured facts by NASA who released the 'startling'arctic data is that of cooling. regards BFTP

Enforcer I believe there will be a difference this year. There will be a slight warming over the next week as I mentioned due to the air coming from way south. However, there is the probability that the GHP will never be gone long and temps will quickly tumble again towards the end of the month and the cold pool ssts will too with a return to bitter cold notherlies up there. I believe a -ve NAO phase too is to start in the next week or two...we have been slightly +ve for 2 months. BFTP

I believe there may be a change/slight weakening over the next week or so of the -ve as very warm air is pumped up from a long way south due to the HP to our east. However, I don't think it will last as northelies reaasert themselves back up that way later in the month. BFTP

I personally wouldn't pay too much attention to the north Sea...if the anomalies are cold north of us and if the easterly airflow is cold enough all will be fine. BFTP

Steve Quite simply magnificent! Look forward to your winter forecast with great anticipation. regards BFTP

SP Yes ice retention is apparently much better in that part of the world than of recent times. I am of the opinion that these ssts will hold due to synoptic pattern up there. I am really pleased too that we haven't had the plunge from up there yet too...it would be too early. BFTP

Depending which chart you use some are more encouraging than others ie look at unysis...terrific. Can't post the link, cr@p at that sort of thing. BFTP

SP Have you seen the latest GFS run...that would be nice look at the GHP BFTP

WBSH Still looking good at mo to me BFTP