BLAST FROM THE PAST

SB I think you are right re wind direction as northern blocking will be the pattern IMO. I don't go for the hot summer though...not until August and very warm Sept BFTP

I think also we must await to see how cold things get first before we concern ourselves re warm spell...indeed the CET could drop further which of course will temper further any warming effect. Mine by the way is 3.2C, although I have a feeling it maybe more towards 4c BFTP

Just to add the models seem to show the continued rolling set up and I now have high confidence that we are unlikely to see 'warmth' equivalent of the 'hot' years. I think the GHP will show its face quite regularly this spring and through summer. regards BFTP

Bit late really but there is a very high chance here of posting a sub 3.5c cet....3.2 is mine. If its any consolation I did forecast in Feb that latter half of March wouuld be cold particularly from 20th on BFTP

Hi folks Springtime? or not! I foresee one main pattern developing, height rises over Greenland and/or Scandi leading to a theme that we see winds from a S//E//N predominance rather than sw/w/nw as of recent years. The main reciprients of rain when it occurs is the south of the UK rather than the north as LPs cross the UK or dive SE...generally maintaining the recent pattern. No seering heat and average temps to slightly below until May when we may get first real 'summer' warmth. Yes we will have warmth before but somewhat tempered by periods of cooler conditons. I picked up a tentative rolling 2 week pattern over the winter but probably monthly is more solid. I posted several days ago that last week or so of March 20thish on may well bring the coldest period of the month...we shall see with GHP being dominant in this. If this happens then I see continuance of similar set up into May and possibly beyond. I will give more detail when I have more time, prob next wekk BFTP

Steve Will read again when I get in but I think I have digested it. Excellent summary and I will post some thoughts later too. It will be interesting to see as we go through 06 whether we see a dominant GHP again...signals are that March will have this!? BFTP

So Roger What happened is close to spot on then re your analysis if I have read it right. Good stuff BFTP

Has that forecaster who wrote that looked at todays GFS 06z run and believed it as accurate??? I must admit though I like the LP diving south bit with significant snow...I went for big snow event between 30/1and 2/2 in my LRF so heres keeping eyes peeled. Cold/calm conditons to remain for next week with more severe cold weather digging in after snow event into next week, this should lead us through a very cold Feb. BFTP

Roger Interesting posts by WIB about the SST situation now falling in line with the tripole setup which would lead to the -ve NAO and there is about a 1month time lag...that makes it mid Jan......any further thoughts re developments has current situ supporting your theory BFTP

Thanks Roger...now that clears that up and I did misquote you so sorry. I think that is a good sum up and do concur BFTP

Yes as thought WBSH a swing is taken place with much colder conditions. BFTP

WBSH Could you do one for today and then say in a weeks time about 12th. Got a feeling could see a big swing ta BFTP

[Next update 0530h 07 Dec

Nick summit -12C? Fred

Sorry Shugge!! BFTP

Pete Keep safe buddy regards Fred

Pete Yes, I love pounding the mean streets of London with very cold air around...very happy regards BFTP

I have to go to work now......is everyone happy?????Have a good day all BFTP

Ian as regards to your winter forecast...is your confidence being consolidated with the current continuance of this recent trend? BFTP

Nick as a point of interest I know you are posting up 'til end Nov, could you keep sporadic check during Dec, I'm interested in the possiblity of huge HP over the Arctic and potentially some exceptionally low temps are possible. BFTP

Thanks Mike Fred