BLAST FROM THE PAST

Meto Excellent statistically informative post...its what helps to make this such a good forum BFTP

Mike I nearly passed out reading that, where are your full stops? Pinutoba certainly had a cooling effect a year later, there are a generation of Polar Bears known as the Pinutoba cubs, or they were now full blown adults, as it apparently dropped global temps and the arctic conditions became perfect for a Polar Bear boom. As to its added CO2 content which remains in the atmosphere for 40yrs? On e can assume thats included but who knows. The point Daniel made re comparing venus and Earth and proximity to the sun is THE most valid point. Mars has a much much higher CO2 level in the Atmosphere than us and its poles are huge areas of dry ice [frozen CO2]...proximity from the sun? :lol: BFTP

The rate of ice melt IMO does not and cannot match the rate of temp increase, no way can 0.6C to 0.8C cause so much sea ice melt indeed arctic temps are matching 1938 yet arctic ice has continued to decline!? The oceans are warming as fast if not faster than global air temps...CO2 warming can't cause that, no warming can unless we are experiencing Ocean warming...otherwise it is ass backwards. Seas take longer to warm but the increase is matching the air temp increase so if we are continually warming how are sea temps matching growth. The more I read the more a dramatic switch I favour towards onset of glaciation as many continental ice sheets continue to thicken. BFTP

Pete I don't think that our CO2 is causing us a problem...I think the problem is there. This is the crux of the discussion and what happened eons ago is THE POINT, CO2 is CO2 is CO2, the planet has been here before and has always as far as one can tell gone into an iceage when these sort of CO2 levels are reached. CO2 was on a sharp increase every time prior to one kicking in, why should it turn out different now? I do not deny a problem, I just don't buy we are heading towards uncontrollable continued warming...I think the opposite will happen as history has shown BFTP

Pete Yes Devonian was, no CO2 built up then an ice age kicked in...thats the cycle theory BFTP

As regards to being on the Greenland plateau, I get all my info from some good buddies who work for Danish MI in the climate dept and I belief them alright when they say its cold up there! Cheers C

TWS Only in northern Hemisphere is that claim for. It won't be the warmest globally BFTP

Carinthian Keep up the good work. Very interesting to see such cold developing up there. Like Johns quote re you actually being there...it comes across like it The METO are hedging for another -ve NAO this year and I think it is a good bet. I think summer will be late with Aug/Sept warmest months, obviously it is nice in the sun but I don't see anything like searing heat until then. I don't think winter will arrive earlier than last year but what I predict is a dramatic change from warm conditions to cold as in a set up anticipated we will be influenced more like a continental climate so from late summer warmth/autumn mild into cold like last winter. I am looking for GHP to be ever present this year to consolidate these thoughts. These current reports delight me BFTP

Devonian No problem I thought that was the case you were arguing. My point is there is no equilibrium CO2 level, it is always fluctuating. Your case and warmists case implies our CO2 is totally at fault. So what if we were below the equilibrium and our 6 billion tonnes still didn't bring it above this magic figure? It would be classed as being within the natural CO2 cycle. CO2 is rising and rising irrespective of our input into the atmosphere...my case is we are heading that way anyway whether we like it or not, If we stopped CO2 output dead right now CO2 levels would still rise and probably keep on going until the next ice age. BFTP

GW Good point and research underway! BFTP

Devonian Of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enter earth's atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in earth's oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants. That is 3% is it not? Pete No I know you're not. But where I got my figure from was from the above. So where does Devonian get 30% from??? CO2 levels have not been static, they have been increasing naturally for 18000 years...naturally. Without our imput we would still be in higher scale of CO2 levels and rising...would we not? I can only see 30% if one is saying that 18-20 Billion tons is the extra CO2 above equilibrium and our 6billion is 30%? BFTP

Mike it shows what locality does...1998 was warmest year on record globally BFTP Magpie No not the majority of scientists...only the ones given media air time. :unsure: Very selective... re one we produce 3% of planets CO2 re two only in very lowest levels...CO2 is heavy gas...and of course traps some of the heat re three CO2 has been rising constantly for 18000 years it may be picking up pace but it has been gradually picking up pace pre industrialisation...more heat more CO2 more heat more CO2 natural cycle...whether this is...but it always has been that way. Remeber highest levels CO2 they reckon for million years...so we've been here before?! re four yes correct last paragraph, no humans are not CAUSING the increase it has been going on for 18000 years...industrial revolution 1800s So very flawed or tunnelled argument as we may be adding 3% but we are NOT causing BFTP

Big idea, long post, and probably a fairly long pause before anything else happens. I'm working on this whenever I can, though. One thing for certain, I have made more progress by stumbling into NW by accident than I could have foreseen a year ago when I was trading insults with Bill Farkin on the Beeb site. That was then, this is now.

Good post GW, this should continue this excellent discussion. A spiffinghtening possibilty and one direction we could well be heading. Nicely highlighted comparable episodes too....food for thought BFTP

Have we by cutting our SO2 emissions massively reduced the natural output of SO2 as well? CO2 was overwhelmed, yes that sounds about right as it has at some point been many times previously. BFTP

Yes Oceans warm slowly but the global increase in temps is in line with the ocean warming? Cool period 40s to 1970, was there zero carbon emissions for 20 years prior to that? Of course not CO2 increased yet the temp dropped. Its all projection and the temps I would suggest aren't rising as quickly as some would like to think. As I say no evidence it will continue to warm and reach those heights...only opinions from scientists with counter opinions from other scientists regards BFTP

But 2-4c is projected warming the planet has warmed by 0.6C approx over the last 100 years and 1998 was the warmest year on record, so have we stopped warming?. There is no evidence of such a rise will occur...I don't think 0.6c is above whatcould be expected in a natural cycle BFTP

As you also said trevw – a super discussion – lots of biased comments but no bad language! Thanks fellas!

AFT A decent projection and I believe the GHP may show its face throughout like last year. I think the warmer weather which I agree with timing may well be enough to produce a reasnoably above average month but there is unlikely IMO to be any 'hot' spell for some time unlike recent Springs. BFTP

Someone will no doubt tell me just how many tonnes of CO2 that is. :lol:

Pete I like your arguments, very reasonable opposing propositions and certainly makes one think? I really don't know and I suppose that IS our real problem? Reduce reduce reduce...then surely we can't go wrong? Penguin, IMO excellent points BFTP

Trevw Nice post with some good points with which I will go along with as they make sense. CO2 is not the major GHG and even with its rising figure still cannot be the driving force in the planets current warming cycle IMHO and your post seems to nicely highlight that. Too many scientists don't buy it and I don't either it is too simplified and occupies too small a section of the atmosphere...0.03%. If as you say when it is released it amplifies the warming then more CO2 is released and more warming. Why then would the planets cycle fail to correct the situation this time when it always has in the past. 1998 was the warmest year on record...we haven't surpassed that since. There has been a 0.6 to 0.8C global rise over the last 100 years although this has not been continual as post 1940 we cooled for 40years and then we have risen again. However, CO2 has continued to rise continually, how does that work then? BFTP