Weather-history

I reckon we have had 50 or so frosts this year so far. It has been frost night after night recently. Not had a really mild night for weeks. Even that one mild March day we had near the start of the month, it started of sub zero with a frost.

The constant frosts night after night have been remarkable. I'm struggling to remember the last really mild night of the classic tropical southwesterly type.

Hard to believe that the new season starts with the current weather set up as it is in less than 3 weeks time for the Shetlands!

A similiar summer version of this current spell would be late September-early October 2011. 28th September-3rd October 2011 CET: 19.4C 29th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.9C Both periods exactly 6 months apart in terms of position in calendar. It shows how far and how intense winter cold and intense summer heat can extend into the following season modified somewhat by the time of year.

The key for me is the Sun. It's current low activity as far as I'm aware has caught people out, some so called experts, were only 6 years ago of predicting a highly active Sun for this maximum. That has proved to be incorrect, now what is going to happen when we enter the next minimum phase with the Sun? And how long will the Sun's low activity last?

Can anyone remember how mild the Christmas into New Year period was? 22nd December 2012-8th January CET: 7.9C 17th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.8C

I'm surprise there is not more discussion on this. This period could turn out even colder than the March. The last 31 days up to 3rd April is provisionally 2.6C, already 0.1C colder than March. How low can it go with this running 31 day period?

10th January - 3rd April 2013 CET: 2.6C. That's the last 12 weeks. 20th March - 3rd April 2013 CET: 1.5C. That's the last 15 days 11th March - 3rd April 2013 CET: 1.9C. That's the last 24 days

You can see it on wetterzentrale http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/

Undercutting and its a worrying trend if you want to see much milder weather. ECM undercuts as well on 0z. Get the feeling the breakdown to milder weather seems to be slowly getting pushed back.

Can I be pedantic here, the CET hasn't actually been running since 1659. It was constructed by Gordon Manley in the 1950s, from data that goes back to 1659. The CET did not exist until Professor Manley published his paper on his work about 1953.

I don't know why there is a song and dance about this. The Met Office is a UK organisation, it forecasts for the UK It will give info and talk at the UK level. What does one expect? If it were to give info at say the CET level it would then be accused that its a southern organisation, bias to the south, not interest in the north etc.

It is hard to compare the March of 2013 with past cold Marches because the outstanding feature of March 2013 is just how cold the second half was. March 2013 never warmed up! So many past notably cold Marches warmed up at some stage in the final stretch. March 1947 had a foundation, it came after the frigid snow covered February, it hit the ground running, it collapsed mid month. The March of 2013 never got going until almost after a third of month had passed! The CET daily mean last recorded a value above 3 on the 19th of March! Remarkable for the time of the year.

Past years that I have experienced that stuck in my memory, weatherwise 1985: cold wintry spells of January to March. Seeing snow fall at the end of April. A thunderstorm at night during May. The late May early June warmth. The poor August. The early October warmth, the cold Nocember and the snow at the end. The mild December and the cold last week. Memorable. 1986: the early and late January snowfalls, that cold February, the March storm, the cold April, the heat of second half of June, the bank holiday washout, the cold September. Memorable 1987: the bitter easterly of January, the March cold and snowfalls, the beautiful warm Good Friday of April, early May snow, the awful June, thunderstorms of late August, didn't experience the October storm but news coverage has stuck in the memory. Memorable. 1988: late January snowfall, February gale, diabolical July, late November snow, warm December. Pretty forgettable. 1989: really memorable, latter stages not. 1990: very memorable. Goes without saying. 1991: February snowfalls, chilly June. Back end of August, good. Pretty forgettable 1992: brilliant May and June with heat and storms, the cold October and the cold end to December. Fairly memorable. 1993: the stormy January, the late February snowfalls, the early June storms, the cold autumn and the wintry December at times. Pretty memorable. 1994: February snowfalls, the Easter snowfalls, the heat and thundery nature of the summer, that warm Novermber. Cold pre anticyclonic spell. 1995: fantastic year, unforgettable. 1996: wintry late January spell, the snowfalls of February, that cold May, decent summer, the cold November and December. Pretty memorable 1997: the early May wintry switharound and the May as whole, late June washout, the Christmas Eve storm. Pretty forgettable 1998: mid February warmth, mid April wintry, some heat in May. Pretty forgettable 1999: early February wintry spell, mid April wintry spell, the heat of May with thunder, the July, the poor August, the September heatwave. Fairly memorable 2000: early April wintry interlude, the autumn washout and late December snow. Up to autumn, it was forgettable. 2001: January to April wintry interludes, the warm October and late December wintry spells. Not particularly memorable 2002: forgettable 2003: the heat waves from April to September, the cold second half of October. Memorable heatwaves but little else 2004: early June heat, the thundery washout August, the white Christmas. Not particularly memorable. 2005: wintry mid February to mid March spell, the autumn with the turnaround during November. Not especially memorable 2006: March snow, the wet May, the hot July and September. Fairly memorable. 2007: the January gale, the warm April, the washout May to July. The last 4 months were forgettablr 2008: the sunny and temperature range of February, the wintry spells of late March-early April, the awful August, the wintry spells of late November-December. Fairly memorable 2009: the cold start to the year, the cold and snow of first half of February, the washout November, the wintry second half to December. Memorable events were either end but not a lot in between. 2010: very cold wintry start, March to mid November was forgettable. December was anything but unforgettable, 2011: pretty forgettable apart from Easter and late September-early October heatwave. 2012: the washout April and June but not much else.

If that proves to be correct then the CET for the period 9th March-8th April 2013 would be an amazing 2.3C

Ah but you see April and June were remarkable in how wet they were. They are the wettest on record.

1973 sounds very boring, the data looks very boring, no particularly wet months, only one month on the dry side, no outstanding months temperature wise. Only individual weather events of interest.

I think the clue that there is no conspiracy is the fact they said March 2013 was joint 2nd coldest on record. Hardly hiding the facts!

Going back a bit, 1988 was forgettable apart from that July and the late November cold and that warm December. There was that February gale but nothing else. 1991 wasn't especially memorable apart from the February snow and the chilly June. August onwards was forgettable. 2010 for me was bookend by memorable weather but inbetween ie March to mid November, there was not a lot of memorable weather. A complete lack of thunder.

May 1997 was the most interesting month of that year for me. August 1997 despite how warm it was has never stuck in my memory. The Christmas Eve gale was the standout1998: mid February warmth, mid April wintry spell and some May warmth but the rest of the year apart from the Boxing Day gale was forgettable 2000: that autumn washout and the post Christmas snowfall. Rest of the year was forgettable. 2004: the thundery August, Christmas Day snow. Rest of the year forgettable. 2007: that January gale, the April warmth, the washout June and July, rest of the year forgettable. 2011: the late September and early October heatwave. Apart from Easter 2011, I remember little from that April. The year lacked thunder, snow, fog. Hardly memorable.

I am uploading BBC forecasts from 2002 at the moment but what a forgettable year that was at least around here. It lacked snow, there was a wintry day towards the back end of February but that really was it. Spring was pretty homogenous, some pleasant spring warmth but a lack of variety. Summer 2002 was indifferent, autumn had some pleasant late summer weather, a notable October gale but November was a mild washout. December was unremarkable. A forgettable year in my books, hardly any standout moments. Any other years that you found forgettable? Boring, lack of variety rather than an event you would rather forget.

Let's look at the rundown for this month 1. The coldest March with 1892 since 1883 2. The coldest March CET mean maximum on record. (Since 1878) 3. The coldest CET mean maximum for a spring month on record. 4. The joint 5th coldest CET mean minimum for March on record. 5. The 6th coldest CET month in the last 25 years 6. The 5th coldest CET mean minimum in the last 25 years. 7. The coldest second half to March with 1883 since 1853 8. The first time a March has been colder than a colder than average January and February in the same year since 1786 9. The first time a below average March has returned a CET colder than the previous winter that was also below average since 1962

Amazingly it was colder than December 1995, minimum wise! That is a surprise.

Although February and March 1990 and 1997 were similar to each other they were however, nothing like February and March just gone.

Infact it turned out the coldest Easter since 1883