Weather-history

jules216 This is where I have problem with analogs. Look at the years given and try apply them at a more microlevel, in this case the UK Take April Years given 1987, 1998, 2007 and 2016 Now look at the CETs for those years. How can anyone extract what possible the weather maybe given the difference in those CETS?

Metwatch

Not great

Has this been a bad winter for the teleconnections pundits and medium/long models?

Interesting tweet by Dr Simon Lee

summer blizzard 1868-69 Dec 7.2 Feb 7.5

Derecho Apparently there were prayers for rain in Spain by May 1779. Seen a newspaper report saying it had not rained their for more than 4 months.

Summer8906 It was exceptionally dry, infact the first 3 months of 1779 were exceptionally dry, just 44mm or so by the start of April. That's is truely remarkable, granted you might question the data of the time but it is there in the Hadley data. I have done research in the newspapers from that period and I'm surprised there is little info. I would have thought given how agriculturally dependent we were at the time, that there was not more reports on the drought and it was a drought.

reef Is it? Not exactly a lot of below average Marches in the last 30 or so years.

February 1903 was an exceptionally mild month with a CET of 7.1 Tropical martime southwesterly frequently flooded the UK bringing exceptionally high maxima for the time of the year. On the 21st of February, an airmass that originated from north Africa gave a remarkable dust fall across parts of Wales and central and southern England as can been seen on this map. The shaded areas is where dust was reported Some reports Mrs Foster, Witley, Godalming "On Saturday, February 21st, we had a remarkable dust-storm, worst about midday. Several people who went out of doors complained of the dreadful dust in their eyes and nostrils. On Monday morning, after the rain of Sunday. the 22nd, I saw yellow dust on the south and west window sills, but it was like cement and could not be swept up, so it had to be washed off." Dr Edwin Freshfield, Juniper Hill "From 9am till 2pm the sun was shining brightly enough through a haze similiar to the Khamsin haze in Egypt, then the semi-obscured sky cleared of mist about 4pm. Evergreen trees were noticed to be covered with chocolate coloured dust at 11am and by 4pm the trees were all of one uniform colour. The dust was silky to the touch." Mrs Silver, Highfield Vicarage, Southampton "On the Sunday, February 22nd, between 11am and noon the sky was coloured with a thick yellow cloud exactly like a Lonodn fog, too thick for sufficent light to penetrate to read by. The darkness lasted about an hour and when it had passed the windows were covered with yellow sand." G.D, Hope, Romford "On Saturday 21st February, a great amount of grey dust fell at Havering. The conifers collected most and looked as if they had been powdered with flour" A few days later, there was a tremendous gale that hit northern parts that for Ireland was described as the worst gale since the Big Wind of January 1839. One estate near Birr reported about 2000 trees uprooted, 4000 trees on an estate in Kilkenny, 3000 trees were uprooted in Phoenix Park, Dublin. Reports on the gale Norwich: Great gale on the night of 26th with terrific gusts Bolton: On the 27th, occurred the most severest gale for many years, its force being almost equal to that of the memorable gale of 9th December 1886 Melmerby: Violent SW gale on the 26th and 27th. Many trees uprooted and houses unroofed. Douglas: A storm of probably almost unprecedented violence on the 26th and 27th did much damage to churches, houses, trees and gardens. Cargen: The gale on 27th caused considerable damage to timber and trees Darryanne Abbey: The gale of the 26th was said to be the worst remembered. Dublin: A hurricane on the night of 26th/27th unequalled since the big wind of January 6th 1839 Athlone: The greatest storm since "the night of the big wind" on January 6th 1839 raged on 26th. Trees were laid low all over the country and in some cases almost whole woods. Ballinaloe: Violent gale on the 26th. Houses were unroofed and thousands of trees blown down all over the district. The gale made news across the pond. This from a North Carolina newspaper

reef For the NW ENG/NWales region, 20th wettest summer on record (2023) followed by the 11th wettest autumn on record (2023) followed by so far the 27th wettest winter on record (2023-24) giving a whopping 1112mm since the start of July last year. An annual total of 1112mm would put that year in the top 40 wettest years on record for the region......and this is just 7 and a half months. God knows what the July 2023-June 2024 rainfall total is going to end up as

Metwatch Here's my post from that thread. June 2007 CET: (Jun 1-12): 16.4°C (+2.9 degC) E&W Rain: (Jun 1-12): 4.4mm ( 16 per cent) E&W Sun: (Jun 1-12): 75.8hr (100 per cent) Shows that June 2007 didn't start out too bad. Look how dry it was up to the 12th

North-Easterly Blast So? I go off an index. Summer index for 2012 was 164, 2007 was 174

North-Easterly Blast That's not an explanation. That's a bunch of stats.

North-Easterly Blast Why would this be? You call it a theory. Did Newton when he gave his theory of gravity did he just left it at that? No, he explained it When Einstein gave his theory of relativity did he just left at that? No he explained it. So I want an explanation. Why would the weather of a specific 30 day period in the Earth's orbit have an effect on the weather of a specific 90 day period in the Earth's orbit, where there is 61 days between the two periods? And why only a specific type of weather? In this case, warmth. Does it hold true, on other parts of the planet? Does a warm September in New England mean a warm winter for that part of the world as well?

2012 was the worst summer since the 1950s up here. Often forgotten that summer 2007 started off not too bad. There was little rain until about after the first 10 or so day and June was above average for the CET. The rainfall was concentrated in about a 6 week period. The end of July and August was not that wet. Summer 2012 was bad from the start, remember the Diamond Jubilee weekend? Just never got going at least up around this neck of the woods.

RJBingham ......or a brought a colder second half to January 2019? Often forgotten about this. 6 days of lying snow here during that period for my location. 17th Jan-3rd Feb 2019 CET: 2.2°C

February 1956 and 1957 March 1947 and 1948 March 1937 and 1938

Another solar example: winter 2000-01 was close to solar maximum (November 2001) but I think of a lot of members would take that winter with both hands over the last 2 or 3 winters. For my location, it was one of best winters between 1997 and 2009. For the Manchester Winter Index, it;s index was higher than any of the winters that occurred around the following solar minimum.

Look at this chart from 9th January 1977, the winter up to then had been cold. The SSW strikes around this date and the winter then goes belly-up for the UK and turns into a mild, wet affair. It was the mildest February for 10 years for the CET and one of the wettest on record for the EWP Did the stratospheric warming in January stitch this winter up?

For the region, 20th wettest summer on record (2023) followed by the 11th wettest autumn on record (2023) followed by so far the 27th wettest winter on record (2023-24) giving a whopping 1112mm since the start of July last year. An annual total of 1112mm would but that year in the top 40 wettest years on record for the region......and this is just 7 and a half months. God knows what the July 2023-June 2024 rainfall total is going to end up as.

There were some big snowfalls mid February 1953

MattH Matt, thanks for your contributions, they are much welcomed. Are you though disappointed given what the signals were suggesting, how it has turned out? Its mid February now and yes we can still have wintry weather in March but the meteorological winter is drawing to a close.

London didn't record a maximum of a least 50°F during February 1932 for the first time during February since 1895 One of those winters where the south of the UK did better for wintry weather than further north

reef Supporters of this, see the data and think that is suffice, they never offer a possible reason why this would be so . Well that is not how science and knowledge advances. Time to offer theories to why this would be.